The question of our Age: An open letter to D. Pipes
Reader comment on item: Europe's Stark Options

Submitted by Rick House (United States), Apr 16, 2007 at 01:03

Daniel Pipes,

Bored on a Sunday afternoon I sat down at my computer and wrote the following stream of conscience letter. After I finished it, I wanted to send it to you in a private email but couldn't find a place on your site to send it. So, I looked through your recent articles and chose this one to accomplish my task. I hope you don't mind. As you read it, please remember it is an off-the-cuff letter, one intended to spark your interest like your articles do for me. I am well aware of your many attempts to describe and answer the basic question I posit. I just thought that this open letter might help you to understand at least one member of your audience.

Have you ever heard about the "empire theory" of Western Civilization? I'm sure you have but for those that haven't it's a theory that suggests today's dominant Western Civilization developed from and through a progression of empires that began in Mesopotamia (modern day Iraq) following the first Agricultural Revolution. (see progression of empires list below)

• Sumer (the first city-state -- not really an empire, but a good conceptual beginning)
• The Akkadian Empire (the first empire) …co-existed with Old Kingdom Egypt Dynasties
• The Neo-Sumerian Empire
• The Babylonian Empire (Hammurabi) …co-existed with Middle Kingdom Egypt Dynasties
• The Assyrian Empire
• The Hittite Empire… (based on iron weapons) co-existed with New Kingdom Egyptian Dynasties
• The Neo-Babylonian Empire
• The Persian Empire
• Greek Empire (Alexander the Great)
• Roman Empire ("Pax Romana")
• Byzantine Empire (Constantine)
• The Empire of Charlemagne (AD 800, the first Holy Roman Emperor)
• The Holy Roman Empire… co-existing with a strong Ottoman Empire (c. 1230 to 1571)
• Portuguese Empire (Henry the Navigator)
• Spanish Empire (Ferdinand and Isabella)
• The Dutch Empire (The Dutch East India Company)
• The British Empire ("Pax Britannica"… competing with the French Empire, 1715 to1914, co-existing with a weakening Ottoman Empire, c.1800 to 1918)
• The United States from 1945 to 1948
• The Bi-Polar World of the Cold War (USA and USSR)
• At the present time it's the American Empire (Many historians label the 20^th century the American century. "Pax Americana" was exclaimed by George Bush Sr. to the UN Assembly in 1990... )

From ancient times to the present day important disruptive events have occurred that have resulted in a new world order. (see disruptions list below)

• The Persian Wars led to the rise of the Greek empire.
• The Peloponnesian War led to the fall of the Greek empire.
• The Punic Wars led to the rise of Rome.
• Attila and the Huns were part of the fall of Rome.
• The migrations were part of the fall of Rome.
• Roman decadence was part of the fall of Rome.
• Over expansion was part of the fall of Rome.
• The Vikings, a powerful regional power in the north, prevented western Europe from rising again.
• The Rise of Islam. Spreading like wildfire, Islam dominated the major trade routes and became the regional power of the south… Its common language made it a major economic power. However, its political and military prowess did not evolve in equal measure.
• The misdirected and unsuccessful Crusades perpetuated the status quo of a divided world.
• The Great Schism was a domestic religious struggle that perpetuated the status quo of a divided world.
• The Black Death did two important things. It weakened all sides of a divided world, and it ushered in a reorganization of daily life.
• Hundred Years' War energized and revolutionized European land-based military development.
• The Age of Discovery energized and revolutionized European navies and merchant vessels.
• The Renaissance energized European intellectual, political, and economic development.
• Reformation isolated the Roman Catholic Church.
• The Counter-Reformation reoriented the Roman Catholic Church toward a more spiritual path.
• The Scientific Revolution was the precursor to the Age of Reason.
• The Thirty Years' War was the beginning of a selection process for the dominant power in Europe. Collectively, Europe was the leader of the world, but it was still fragmented.
• The Age of Enlightenment was all about selecting a path forward for European dominance of the world.
• The French and Indian War (also called the Seven Years' War) was all about European nation-states positioning themselves to ascend to world power status.
• The Napoleonic Wars were France's bid for ascendancy to a world power status.
• The concert of Europe was a retrenchment of European world rule based on conditions prior to the Napoleonic Wars.
• Industrial Revolution gave Britain its chance for quasi-world domination. (Britain would create the world's leading economy and control the world's oceans. It did not have the strength to dominate militarily in long-term conflicts on land. For example: the American Revolution, the Sepoy Mutiny, and the Crimean War.)
• 18^th and 19^th Century nationalism was a competitive outgrowth of the pursuit for world power ascendancy.
• 19^th Century Imperialism was another competitive outgrowth of the pursuit for world power ascendancy.
• World War I was the deadliest competition for ascendancy among the European nations.
• The Great Depression prevented the United States from an early ascendancy to world power status.
• World War II made the United States the first total and sole world power since the Roman Empire.
• The Cold War marginalized the US power and divided the world once again.
• The collapse of the USSR in 1989 once again propelled the US to a dominant position of world power. Then 9/11 happened. What to do? The United States is divided as to whether or not it wants the job and a power vacuum has developed.

Now for the fun part. Let's speculate about the future directions the empire theory might take. (I have prepared a list of some of the competing visions I've made note of over the past year below.)

The Possible Muslim WorldviewsThe Islamic Revolutionary Empire/The Radical Islamic Empire/The Pan Arab Empire/The Muslim Empire

-- is put forth by the Muslim exiles and the newly converted. Its members live in Europe, Australia, and North and South America. Its dream is to unify the fractured Muslim world and expand their faith through religious conversion. They use western legal systems to isolate themselves from assimilation and to expand their enclaves. They are also politically and economically astute. Their numbers are small but they are growing. Unrest in Muslim countries causes their numbers to increase through migrations away from war zones. Currently, large numbers of Iraqis want to move to the US much like the Vietnamese did after the Vietnam War. -- the moderate Arab Muslim worldview. This one dates back to the 19^th century when the Arabs were under the heel of the Ottomans… It was petitioned for after WWI and later Egypt's Nasser tried to achieve it at Suez with little success because of the French and Brits. Its most successful achievements toward a reality was the creation of OPEC and the Yom Kipper War. While this theoretical empire has only regional aspirations, many moderate Arabs still dream about its creation because its influence would be global. Currently, its moderate to radical supporters prolong the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.-- this one has bin Laden as a figurehead. It is very similar to the IRE but with a Sunni bent to it -- they want a new Caliphate. Today, its ranks are filled with disaffected Muslims from Spain to Indonesia. Islamic Jihad and Al Queda are its principal militants.-- the radical Islamist worldview, a worldwide Islamic theocracy. Its ranks are filled with mostly radical Shites and is centered in Iran. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are is principal militants.

The Competing American WorldviewsThe Anglo-American Resurgence Empire/The Global Community

-- This worldview is the dream of the left in the United States. Its all about progress, collectivity, and globalization. Its proponents cite the successes of the United Nations and NGOs, the need to meet global environmental concerns such as erupting pandemics and global warming, and especially the need for collective action to help the world‘s sick and poor. Like the Anglo-American Resurgence Empire, it wants to lead the global effort. However, its problem is that 2/3rds of the planet population doesn't want it butting in or has other issues with it like nationalism, religion, and world economic turmoil. Examples of its problems can be seen in debates on or about the Iraq war, international trade, the WTO, the World Bank, immigration, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons to name a few.--

This one harkens back to the United States after WWII. Think about the Bush - Blair connection. It's simply the political opposite of the Roosevelt - Churchill connection. It is based on our joint dominant economies, our technology, our infra-structure, our weapons, and the will of about a third of our populations. Its strongest asset is its appeal to the American and British psychics. Both cultures find it very difficult not to lead in a contest. The proponents of this worldview would put America and Britain in the lead because it is the best way to ensure the continuation of traditional liberal beliefs and ideals. This worldview has its problems too. Resolve is waning on all fronts. The nation is in the mist of an isolationist phase. And, an IED triumphs an inspired and successfully fought battle campaign in Iraq.

The European Resurgence Empire is a pipe dream for the Europeans. It's an attempt to maintain and prolong its disintegrating social welfare systems by offering an alternative to the major empire contenders. Its goal is relevancy. Europe wants to maintain its position on the world stage and it intends to do this by hook or by crook. Examples of its actions are everywhere. They're in Security Council votes, rapidly changing political positions, trade barriers, and shady oil buying. Europe is giving its technology and expertise for a sit at every table. Will it be enough? Look to its birthrates before you bet on this one.

The Asian Worldview

The Asian Empire

This worldview is all about "the rise of Middle Kingdom (China)." Everyone is talking about this one. It centers on China's population and its theorized economic potential. I have my doubts about the viability of this empire. China does not assimilate others, it expands into enclaves not cultures, and no one wants to read Mao's little red book anymore -- not even the Chinese. However, China's pursuit of massive industrial growth is creating a situation where imperialism may become necessary. Its increasing pollution problem may force the Chinese to migrate in mass. If they do, they'll overwhelm cultures they come in contact with much like the Japanese did in Hawaii.

The Rise of Regional Empires Regional Empires

My question is simple. Which new world order do you think is most likely? It's the question of our Age.

Keep up the fight. I am

Sincerely yours,

Rick House

Denton, TX

This worldview is interesting and chaotic at the same time. Its roots date back to the 19^th century when the Europeans divided up the world into colonial empires and spheres of influence. It's a world ruled by committee. In it you have: Asia Prime which is centered on China, the Sub-continent with India in charge, the European Union, the Russian sphere, the Muslim nations, the African Union, Populist Latin America, the Anglo-American Coalition, as well as a fair number of non-allied nations. This worldview is currently calling for the expansion of the UN Security Council from 5 to possibly 9 members.

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Daniel Pipes replies:

Thanks for your analysis. Lots to think about here.