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Yeah True, But What If ....

Reader comment on item: In Iraq, Stay the Course - but Change It

Submitted by Lars Nielsen (Denmark), Oct 24, 2006 at 16:11

The idea of coalition forces withdrawing to the desert seems very attractive, and maybe it is, but I think, that Daniel Pipes should comment on, what should be the goal for such an operation ?

As I se it, there are two strategic goals, which should be obtained:

- Iraq shall revive as a major oil producing country

- Iraq should have a government, which is Pro-West, anti-Iran, anti-Syria and neutral or friendly to the rest of the region.

Now, can Iraq revive as a major oilproducing country, if coalition forces retreat to the desert ? Only if the iraqi government is able to secure the oilfields, pipelines and so forth. But if coalition cannot secure the oilproduction today, how should an iraqi Pro-West government be more succesfull ? Is it at all posibble for a Pro-West governmemt to stay in power without massive western support ?

Then, what are the alternatives:

- a governmemt run by Al-Qaida or Anti- Western parties ? If so, what should coalition forces achieve by staying in Iraq ? Can they achieve anything, which would make their presence worthwhile ? What would happen, if an Anti-Western iraqui government appealed to the Security Council for dragging the coalition forces out ?

- No government, but a breakdown of Iraq into a Kurdish, a sunni, and a shi'ite state fighting each other ? What would Turkey and Iran do to a curdish state ? How would a shi'ite state react towards Iran ? Could a sunni state survive economically without the two other oil producing parts of Iraq ?

These and maybe other questions should be answered before retreating to the desert.

Maybe, mr. Pipes would answer them ?

Submitting....

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

Daniel Pipes replies:

My goals are modest; a decent Iraqi government, a stable Iraq. It would be great were the country producing oil abundantly and pro-Western, but these are not specific requirements of mine.

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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