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What are the stakes? How about catastrophic failure--which is what I think we'll get.

Reader comment on item: In Iraq, Stay the Course - but Change It

Submitted by MelM (United States), Oct 24, 2006 at 23:56

What "stakes" are we talking about?

"...the stakes are quite minor,...Do you, dear non-Iraqi reader, have strong feelings about the the future of Iraq?"

If I understand what Dr. Pipes meant by "quite minor" then it would be the nature of these "stakes" that would determine why we should keep any troops in Iraq at all. It's the nature of these stakes that I've seen almost no discussion about in the controversy over what to do in Iraq. Who's talking about consequences? We must judge our decisions, basically, according to U.S. security needs (protecting the lives and freedom of the U.S. people). Getting to the point, what does catastrophic failure in Iraq look like and what are the implications for U.S. security? We need to look beyond the death squads and civil war; something will result from all this; somebody will win.

Catastrophic failure in Iraq looks like this (for starters):

- a new tyranny(s) in Iraq (most likely Islamic totalitarian in nature--picture al-Sadr and his ghoulie pals setting up headquarters in the new embassy building. Yes, I think the U.S. gov. is that stupid!)

  • restarted WMD programs
  • big-time support of terrorism
  • a huge boost for the morale and recruiting of Islamic totalitarians everywhere
  • completely wasted: soldier's lives, money and time without anything much being done to fight Islamic totalitarianism.

The security implications: more loss of lives and freedom of the U.S. and our allies and a bigger WOT whenever we get around to fighting it.

The Iraqi gov. now must focus mainly on a "military solution."

The Iraqi gov. needs to remind itself that it is the legal gov. of Iraq and fundamentally IS the "political solution." The Baathists and Islamists who attack the gov. and/or have death squads should be killed, starting at the top. Its opponents should fear the hell out of it; the Iraqi people must be able to look to the gov. for protection from the death squads. When the Iraqi gov. is a winner, the people will respect it and it will survive even with little of the freedom/democracy that one might hope for.

The gov. must recognize that people like al-Sadr will use the political process to help them gain their ends of absolute power. They don't give a rat's behind about participating in any democracy. So, can the Iraqi gov. turn 180 degrees around from this mantra of a "politcal solution"? (I have a hunch about who taught them this "politcal solution" junk.) If the Iraqi gov. is so weak it had to turn loose one of Sadr's murderers the other day, the idea that the Iraqi gov. can turn this around looks a little goofy to me.

Solution

Of the solutions I've seen, I like the one that wants to get our troops out then attack Iran from the air immediately. (NO "Operation Iran Freedom" crap.) Once we attack the big-guns of Islamic totalitarianism, Iraq will be much easier. I think this is basically the idea presented in the Objective Standard journal. "How to Solve America's Terrorism Problem in 5 Easy Steps" Aug 31 2006. theobjectivestandard.com"

Another solution was put forward by the guys over at "Iraq the Model". It has U.S. ground troops going into Iran and Syria (leaving 50,000 in Iraq) and basically is pointing to the fact that men, money, weapons, and tech know-how are coming from countries that have us surrounded. We are right in the middle of a terrorist swamp; resources are coming into Iraq but we're not trying to knock out the sources.

The ITM guys say that we should not have stopped preemption with Iraq. It's nice out-of-the-box thinking but I'd rather see U.S. troops out of Iraq where they're just target practice for the jihadis. Maybe some limited commando ops or such might be useful in Iraq and Iran but essentially I don't want to see any more kids shot to hell trying to bring soccer balls and PTA meetings to Iran. ("America's sin...Hesitation" iraqthemodel.com August 05, 2006.}

Dr. Pipe's solution attempts to avoid catastrophic failure and cut down on American loss of life. But, I think the death squads would take over every neighborhood in Iraq. And, could we really shut down the aid from outside? Plus, Iran and the other terrorist swamps would still be alive and flourshing. If we end up using our troops to keep another dictator from coming to power, I think that's just starting the war all over again with more urban fighting with enemy sniper teams.

My expectation?

Based on what I see from Bush, the dems, and the heavy-hitter senators: we'll get a new totalitarian state in Iraq messing around wtih WMD and terrorism AND a nuclear Iran AND a nuclear North Korea AND a much much bigger war out ahead. And, like WWII, the stakes will be: everything. Sure, some senator might come along with a new vision that would save us but I don't see him/her yet. Listening to Lugar, Biden, Levin, and Warner, I despair of anything good coming from them.

I originally had hopes for the "Iraq the Model" idea but I don't anymore. Just look at the "cut out their tonques" speech in S.A. recently and it's very clear that Islamic totalitarianism in the M.E. isn't going to fundamentally reform any time soon. They don't want no stinkin' freedom and democracy; they want rule by Islam. End of story.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (112) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
Kurdistan Strategy For Iraq [408 words]Mike K.Nov 19, 2006 17:5066640
Cut Off Oil Buys From Middle East, Lock-Down Iraq in Miltary Law, Hand over to U.N Control! [106 words]UniversalSoldierOfFreedomDec 30, 2006 21:4466640
Americans have spoken [59 words]UnbiasedNov 9, 2006 02:0865629
Here is a sensible exit strategy [438 words]NaseemNov 1, 2006 11:0764994
Iraq and Democracy [262 words]trans-parereNov 2, 2006 00:1364994
Bringing Iraqis to West to learn democracy is wild goose chase [380 words]JaladhiNov 2, 2006 11:2164994
Destroy the embassy! [95 words]MelMOct 30, 2006 23:4764850
The Forgotten Question. [145 words]MelMOct 30, 2006 18:5764832
Retreat to the Nevada desert [288 words]Bader SOct 29, 2006 09:5964737
Retreat to Saudi Arabia before the Taliban take over.. [361 words]HarrakOct 29, 2006 21:2164737
Leave Iraq and make it Afghanistan Number 2 [177 words]American MuslimDec 10, 2006 23:1764737
very good [9 words]nabilApr 17, 2007 13:5464737
Wait a Minute [232 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
K.H. AhmedOct 29, 2006 07:2064729
Pay as you go [317 words]Darryl DavisOct 28, 2006 12:4464681
Ray as you go [132 words]HarrakOct 28, 2006 23:3764681
iraq [211 words]DennisOct 27, 2006 14:3664629
Another option: moving from Iraq into Iran [411 words]M.CizinOct 27, 2006 13:4264628
Israeli Army should smoke them out of their holes [108 words]PeacemakerNov 2, 2006 23:1064628
The only realistic, sensible article I have seen recently on Iraq. [82 words]Martin E. WeinsteinOct 27, 2006 11:3064622
I have said it before [122 words]Yuval Brandstetter MDOct 30, 2006 16:4264622
response to Yuval Brandstetter's response to me [166 words]Martin E. WeinsteinOct 31, 2006 12:2164622
If we retreat, the enemy will follow us home : We have to take War to enemy countries [228 words]Indian FriendNov 1, 2006 09:5564622
Redeployment in Iraq [122 words]SLCOct 27, 2006 10:2964614
Hold on a minute. [71 words]someoneMay 28, 2007 00:5564614
We are at war with Islam. [208 words]D WilliamsOct 27, 2006 03:5364597
Islam has attacked us and we are at War with Islam & We have to win this War [288 words]PullaNov 1, 2006 10:5364597
Perhaps not ethical, but: Support the Sunnis [239 words]NotoOct 27, 2006 02:0164595
There is a simple solution. [195 words]Charles StewartOct 27, 2006 01:2364594
the WOT ends with Iraq? Re: "The President Replies..." [151 words]MelMOct 26, 2006 20:1264576
Sounds Good To Me [392 words]John ROct 26, 2006 14:3664556
Why is it so violent? (Iraq) [80 words]HarrakOct 26, 2006 18:4164556
Why so violent.... [264 words]J.S.Oct 30, 2006 13:1464556
JS narrow mindedness [54 words]HarrakOct 30, 2006 17:1164556
In defence of JS [65 words]Octavio JohansonOct 30, 2006 18:1564556
Wait a Second, Harrak.. [292 words]J.S.Oct 30, 2006 18:4464556
about generalizing [62 words]HarrakOct 31, 2006 16:0764556
no wmd, no al qaeda, and saddam is out of power, is there anything else left for americans in iraq? [95 words]syed mohammad aliOct 26, 2006 10:0364542
anything else left for americans in iraq? he asked.. [2 words]HarrakOct 26, 2006 18:3164542
Be careful what you wish for [207 words]Rick HouseOct 26, 2006 20:1664542
Response to Mr. Seyd [356 words]Faqi HussainOct 26, 2006 20:4264542
caliphate system. it is the only solution for islamic world (to get rid of Islam) [262 words]HarrakOct 31, 2006 10:5464542
Give This Proposal Legs [73 words]Arthur SchiffOct 26, 2006 07:5664536
Just Leave [14 words]Zan'Oct 26, 2006 05:5564528
But, could the Iraqi government last even a week? [274 words]MelMOct 25, 2006 19:3764496
Oops, Too Late [175 words]BlackspeareOct 25, 2006 17:5664491
Worth trying [66 words]ChristineOct 25, 2006 17:1964484
In Iraq, Stay the Course - but Change It [90 words]mikeOct 25, 2006 16:3164478
Do this, do that !!!! [268 words]dfwhiteOct 25, 2006 16:1564477
To dfwhite [173 words]rickzOct 26, 2006 09:3364477
spineless !!! [74 words]dfwhiteOct 26, 2006 21:3064477
RE: IRAQ, STAY OR CHANGE... [118 words]Bob BurmeisterOct 25, 2006 13:4564471
This post is germain and should be read by all [3575 words]Gellin and InfidellinOct 25, 2006 12:5364468
Mind blowing stuff !!! [185 words]dfwhiteOct 27, 2006 21:3764468
To Gellin & Infidellin,You are right!DO NOT FORGET 9/11 and ON-GOING WAR BY ISLAM [558 words]TTSOct 28, 2006 02:1264468
Saracen Assassins not new. [88 words]JackdawOct 29, 2006 18:0864468
November 7 legislative elections : Support Republican Agenda to wage a Global War against Islamist Terror [214 words]MumbaiNov 1, 2006 10:2664468
still worried [10 words]Daniel R DrollMar 18, 2008 22:2264468
Recommendations for the President [148 words]lindaOct 25, 2006 12:2864467
mistaken and misguided [194 words]CevertOct 25, 2006 11:5564466
well argued [35 words]jack hawkinsOct 25, 2006 11:4764463
Free election in Iraq [56 words]Bob GroothandOct 25, 2006 11:0464458
You've been reading General Clark? [5 words]John PhilipsOct 25, 2006 05:2764442
Changes for the US in Iraq [179 words]chuck moodyOct 25, 2006 03:5964437
A Terrible Business [508 words]Right-of-Center FilipinoOct 25, 2006 02:2464434
Do Democrats care about Iraq? [326 words]Caesar M. ArevaloOct 25, 2006 01:5064433
What are the stakes? How about catastrophic failure--which is what I think we'll get. [899 words]MelMOct 24, 2006 23:5664425
Mid-course Adjustment [377 words]Frank K. HooverOct 24, 2006 23:3164423
A Loss of Will [203 words]Ex-MarineOct 24, 2006 22:3664416
split the difference [57 words]J.MANITTAOct 24, 2006 21:2764412
This is War, let us conduct as they would. [799 words]D WilliamsOct 24, 2006 20:4864406
To D Williams [30 words]Gellin and InfidellinOct 29, 2006 11:1164406
If only someone would listen......excellent advice [42 words]R.A. McClainOct 24, 2006 20:4564405
Solution to Iraq problems [124 words]Gunther SchiffOct 24, 2006 20:3564404
Special plan for Muslim World : Last Solution left [398 words]AryavratOct 30, 2006 09:4764404
Crusades Anyone? [7 words]JaladhiOct 30, 2006 16:5064404
War is inevitable ! The sooner the better for civilised world [208 words]SonuOct 31, 2006 12:1264404
Iraqi freedom, democracy or oil? [387 words]trans-parereOct 24, 2006 20:2164401
A course on Boxing..Redeploy vs.Retreat [281 words]JayOct 24, 2006 20:1564400
Partition [238 words]Leonard MarkowitzOct 24, 2006 18:4464392
Stay the Course??? [137 words]Robert LangfelderOct 24, 2006 18:0164388
Backing Off in Iraq [83 words]DrewOct 24, 2006 18:0064387
Stay the Course? [303 words]Maurice PicowOct 24, 2006 17:2964382
Go to the desert [83 words]Donald W. BalesOct 24, 2006 17:2764381
change the course [129 words]Terry SenumOct 24, 2006 17:0864379
Comments from a non Iraqi reader [78 words]Juliana LevineOct 24, 2006 16:4764377
A Good and Wise Word [158 words]Robert OdeanOct 24, 2006 16:4264375
U.S shouldn't leave Iraq [131 words]ibrahimNov 24, 2008 00:4364375
When D. Pipes first... [81 words]LDCOct 24, 2006 16:3164371
Advantages and drawbacks Part 2 [57 words]HarrakOct 24, 2006 16:2964370
Advantages and drawbacks of Dr Pipes' suggestion [80 words]HarrakOct 24, 2006 16:2664367
Yeah True, But What If .... [283 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Lars NielsenOct 24, 2006 16:1164366
One must know the rules before one plays the game [481 words]RickOct 24, 2006 15:2564360
Can we call this the Pipes/Murtha plan? [2 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
J. SheffOct 24, 2006 15:2064359
Great idea! [11 words]Ephraim LiorOct 24, 2006 15:0464358
The future and "next time" [75 words]RIckOct 24, 2006 15:0264357
Logic is not always practical [461 words]Rick HouseOct 24, 2006 14:4664355
Reply to Rick House [145 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
IBKOct 25, 2006 15:1264355
On the redeployment to our desert bases [302 words]Rick HouseOct 25, 2006 20:2564355
Correct [28 words]Abu NudnikOct 24, 2006 14:3764352
Well Said! [115 words]Ted McLeanOct 24, 2006 14:3764351
Do Iraqis care about their future? I suspect not. [330 words]PatOct 24, 2006 14:0764349
Strange logic! [187 words]Rodni E. ChaletOct 24, 2006 22:3264349
So what do we do? [631 words]PatOct 26, 2006 10:1364349
Daniel Pipes is correct [150 words]William GrayerOct 24, 2006 14:0564348
Afghanistan again? [156 words]SafrazOct 24, 2006 13:5664347
... and prevent power vacuum for Iran [100 words]IBKOct 24, 2006 13:5064346
At last a solution for war torn Iraq [47 words]David GoshenOct 24, 2006 13:2964345
iraq [42 words]morphOct 24, 2006 13:2664344
How many of us really care about the welfare of Iraq? [29 words]Bobby SternOct 24, 2006 13:1864343
They have to be taught [88 words]David W. LincolnOct 24, 2006 12:4164339
The wisest advice I've yet heard! [35 words]J.S.Oct 24, 2006 12:4164338
A Few Questions [129 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
AlexOct 24, 2006 10:5564335

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