2 readers online now  |  69 million page views

so I crunched some numbers

Reader comment on item: Affirmative Action in Beauty Contests?

Submitted by tumbledry (United States), May 17, 2010 at 14:18

Pew research on religions (link: http://religions.pewforum.org/reports) states that .5% of the united states is Muslim.

According to the Pageant Almanac's calendar list, there will be 88 top-tier pageants in 2010 (link: http://www.pageant-almanac.com/calendar/list.php). Of those, 30 will be in the United States.

Let's assume, because nobody has better numbers, that beauty pageant submissions by religion reflect the overall religious trends in the United States - not terribly crazy, no?

That means, that assuming a winner of each pageant is picked AT RANDOM (not a bad guess for how they choose, from my perspective - also note this means NO DISCRIMINATION).

Off the back of the envelope, this means that the chance that a Muslim is picked as the winner in 2010 in ONE pageant (since that's all we have proof of here):

.5% + .5% + .5% ... 30 times over or: 30 * .5%, or 15% percent chance in 2010 Judging by the numbers, 2010 was a pretty average year for the number of US beauty pageants, going back to 2006. That's means probability wise were talking one Muslim winning a top-tier beauty pageant about every 7 years. Oh yeah, and the Miss A&T pageant and Junior Miss pageants are not in the lists I used, so I'm classifying them as NOT top tier. Top tier are the State titles and up (Miss New Jersey, Miss South Carolina, up to Miss USA and Miss America).

Even if we assume the A&T pageant and Junior Miss pageants were included that would be three muslims in 5 years. Like I said the chances are about 15% per Muslim winner per year, so the total probability that 1 Muslim would win 1 pageant over 5 years is: 15% * 5, same as above (15% the first year, or 15% the second year, etc) or 75% chance.

Only, we need three Muslims to win, so in that case it would be .75 * .75 *.75 or .75 ^ 3 (75% chance for the first, and 75% chance for the second, etc). This comes out to a 42% chance that three muslims will win major beauty pageants over the last 5 years.

Could I possibly be right? I mean, really an almost 1 in 2 chance? If you remember correctly though, I'm only asking that a Muslim win three times in 150 tries (5 years time 30 pageants a year)...

I can safely say I would be hard pressed to describe what you outline in your post as indicative of anything except random chance...

Submitting....

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

Comment on this item

Mark my comment as a response to so I crunched some numbers by tumbledry

Email me if someone replies to my comment

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

See recent outstanding comments.

Follow Daniel Pipes

Facebook   Twitter   RSS   Join Mailing List
eXTReMe Tracker

All materials by Daniel Pipes on this site: © 1968-2020 Daniel Pipes. daniel.pipes@gmail.com and @DanielPipes

Support Daniel Pipes' work with a tax-deductible donation to the Middle East Forum.Daniel J. Pipes

(The MEF is a publicly supported, nonprofit organization under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code.

Contributions are tax deductible to the full extent allowed by law. Tax-ID 23-774-9796, approved Apr. 27, 1998.

For more information, view our IRS letter of determination.)