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Why Gaza? Why Iraq?

Reader comment on item: "Today Gaza, Tomorrow Jerusalem"

Submitted by Gary Frankford (United States), Aug 13, 2005 at 12:41

Dear Daniel:

As always, thanks for your interesting and important insights. I couldn't agree more with your point that the evacuation of Gaza will precipitate a ratcheting up of violence by the Palestinians. It "may" be that even Egypt perceives it has something to gain from aiding them, since that would mean they'd be called upon to "mediate", presumably by the US!

However, the idea that Sharon is invested, one way or the other, in what "effect" the disengagement will have on Palestinian attitudes towards Jews and Israel cannot be accurate. The idea of Sharon going soft on the Palestinians has no precedent anywhere in Sharon's distant or recent past. In essence, Sharon is who he always was. The sum of his life is what counts, not fables in the press about "sudden U-turns", etc. There may be many Jews who believe in he land-for-peace formulation, but Ariel Sharon is as yet not one of them.

In Sunday's JPost, Herb Keinon spelled out what I have always considered the logical background to the Sharon decision, i.e., that he envisions Gaza as an opportunity to engage the Palestinians militarily on their own turf, once Israel has freed itself of the legal taint of "occupation". Like you, Sharon anticipates an increase in Arab terror as a result of the pullout. Unlike you, he welcomes it.
Sharon's military career was that of a man looking for a battle, willing to take on risks others avoided. This time is no different. As in 1967, anti-Israel forces are gathering, not diminishing in the region. Israel needs to determine the order of battle, especially when its chief antagonist, Iran, is preparing the ultimate weapon.

Warrior-statesmen create their own opportunities, since success in battle and its aftermath is all that counts. Clearly Sharon believes Israel must fight now, while it can control the order of battle. To delay may mean risking a (nuclear?) war with Iran down the line, if a succeeding US administration were to reject Bush's aggressive stance in the Middle East.

Keinon's article outlined what I wrote to you a month or so ago. But he added a warning---that after the evacuation the Palestinians will do "everything in their power" to thwart the trap Sharon has prepared. No surprise. They, too, are fighting to win. However, I don't understand what Keinon can be thinking. Is he saying that Israel should avoid all confrontations with the Arabs if there is any hint they might offer resistance? Or, that if they suspect what Israel might be up to, to drop everything? That kind of thinking would have had a strange effect on the outcome of WWII, had Churchill paid even the slightest attention to his critics, who often expressed the hope that the way to Hitler's "heart" was through appeasement and concession. I doubt Ariel Sharon has much faith in the "heart-to-heart" approach where the Palestinians are concerned.

As a result of Operation Defensive Shield, Afghanistan and Iraq, both Israel and the US (as well as services throughout the world) have gathered enormous amounts of still-secret intelligence concerning "Arab realities." Perceptions have changed from what they were 4-5 years ago We can agree that, having seen the documents, the email, the physical evidence of coordinated Islamist plans for future violence as well as long-term and far-reaching political/religious goals vis à vis the West, neither Bush nor Sharon believes the Arabs and Iranians are dreaming of peaceful coexistence!

I would guess that whatever they saw, it portrayed the Islamists---as well as governments and peoples who cheer them on---as enemies, not friends. I think many of us will one day be surprised by the breadth and scope of the anti-US/anti-Israel "community," once this mountain of intelligence is declassified.

No one is happy that Bush and Sharon have not been more forthcoming about why the US is fighting in Iraq and why Israeli settlers are being forced to leave Gaza. Just the other day, in response to a reporter's question about reducing America's troop levels in Iraq, President Bush spoke only about "laying the foundations for future peace." Sharon's comments have been equally vague regarding the disengagment.

Perhaps the silence of both Bush and Sharon on these matters is their explanation.

What would be the point of Bush's explaining that the war in Iraq is being used to lure large numbers of al Qaeda into that country so that we can kill or interrogate them? Bush always maintained that the war would "take the battle to the enemy." And so it has, though at great cost to our soldiers and marines.

The problem was that, after 9/11, we faced a frightening intelligence vacuum-----concerning an enemy capable of inflicting terrible damage, without warning, without declaring war, without an "address" to reply to. In this light, both Afghanistan and Iraq were correct responses to the threat of further attacks from Islamists. What better way to uncover the mysteries than to do one's "investigation" on-site! What we know in 2005 about Islamist intentions represents a sea-change over what we knew on 9/11.

You once advised turning over political power to the Iraqis as soon as possible. While that would have spared many American lives, it would have undercut an important purpose of the invasion--- putting Americans to work uncovering the nature of what we were (and still are) up against, and to do it "over there." It is this core "raison de guerre" that cannot be spoken, for fear of bringing the wrath of every Moslem nation down upon us simultaneously.

Far better to let them think George Bush is a naïve cowboy, a Wilsonian idealist, bringing democracy to those who have no use for it. Better their contempt and sarcasm than their collective resistance to our presence in the region.

As for Gaza, it is impossible that Sharon believes the settlers' leaving will bring peace! He will not disclose Israel's real purpose for the evacuation. Like every wartime leader, Sharon is tasked with speaking out of all sides of his mouth simultaneously, spreading disinformation to friend and foe alike. Surprisingly, One reads little in the press about possible historically relevant motives for Sharon's uprooting these people. One wonders if many journalists today know how big a role official disinformation played in winning WWII? And how, at the time, Churchill was reviled for the same "wrongheadedness" as Sharon (and Bush) today?

Your often-advocated theory that "something happens to Israeli prime ministers" is valid to a point. When one is talking about Ariel Sharon, however, it does no good to simply discard his historical profile. The mistake is in implying that "though we know what's really happening, Sharon evidently does not...." What? Does Netanyahu "know" what is really happening? Or, the settler movement's leaders? Or the Kach extremists? Do they know what Ariel Sharon does not? Is Sharon a Rabin, or an Eshkol? Or even a Begin? Does anyone alive today know how to fight the Arabs better than Ariel Sharon? To whom can we point who was more willing to defeat the Arabs in battle, who advised repeatedly against compromise until Israel's wars were won unconditionally? Only Sharon.

Perhaps the mistake is in our looking at politics and strategic maneuvering, when we should be looking at military tactics, i.e., what a military commander does in preparation for the final battle, which is what Sharon has been itching for since the failures in Lebanon.

I believe that perhaps the "solution" to Israel's Arab problem can be achieved only through war. The Arabs, especially the Palestinians, have spent three decades twisting the Arab mind into antisemitic spasms. As you say, no one in his right mind should expect them to snap out of it any time soon. But, why Ddo you believe that Ariel Sharon, who came to Washington on more than one occasion to show Bush the "fruits" gleaned during raids into Jenin, Tulkarm and Ramalla, doesn't comprehend this?

When I was in Israel last November I asked Dov Weinglas a pointed question:

"What will Israel do if, after leaving Gaza, the Palestinians continue to murder Jews? What if the Palestinians take advantage of the disengagement, not to build the beginnings of a state for themselves, but to improve their military capabilities? Will Israel's response be as it has been, a series of ‘incursions', a series of closures, increased checkpoints, etc?"

"No, it won't be the same," he said. "Then we won't be occupiers any longer, and our range of responses will expand accordingly." Quote-unquote, as recorded in my simultaneous notes of that interview.

Whether Israelis themselves, as well as the US and other Western nations, will attempt to thwart this strategy one cannot know in advance. But clearly, with Iran now going forward with its nuclear cat-and-mouse game, with the Shi'a threatening to turn Iraq into an Islamic dictatorship, with the Blair government's hand now forced prematurely after July 7----the velocity of events may speed up in the months to come beyond what had been foreseen by Bush and Sharon.

Assuming I am right in my analysis, the realities throughout the region should begin shifting profoundly in the coming year. Either the Palestinians will come to their senses (unlikely), or there may be all-out war with Israel. Either the Shi'a in Iraq come to their senses and liberalize their ideas for Iraqi society, or the Coalition could conceivably relocate its forces to the Kurdish north, thereby permitting Shiites and Sunnis to fight it out in Baghdad. Whatever happens, I will not be surprised. I expect the worst, because I believe one does not reverse 1500 years of Islamic history without first destroying what is in place.

In the matter of Ariel Sharon, his life is a puzzle, and his premiership only a piece of the whole. History will show his having been either a fool or a hero re: the disengagement. But all we have to go on now are his accomplishments to date, and his character, the nature of the man. From these factual elements our analyses should unfold.

All regards,

Gary Frankford
Submitting....

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Reader comments (138) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
Israel wants peace nothing else [34 words]Phil GreendJul 6, 2007 22:59103143
The Gaza Pullout from an Israeli's point of view. [354 words]Asaf ApplebaumNov 8, 2005 16:0628005
Israeli-Palestinian views of each other [14 words]jakeFeb 28, 2007 08:2928005
The Israeli Gift-Of-Land-Message to "palestinians" [377 words]LukasSep 16, 2005 03:5425894
Compare Jerusalem Post Column by Carolyn Glick [45 words]Yocheved MenasheSep 15, 2005 16:2425872
Time for the truth! [718 words]LukasSep 15, 2005 04:5025857
RE:Time of truth! [163 words]Emmanuel Etchells-AyreSep 20, 2009 19:1925857
The disengagement from Gaza may not be the right thing to do but [72 words]ArmageddonAug 27, 2005 08:4125143
Today Gaza tomorrow Haifa and Tel-Aviv [121 words]ArmageddonAug 27, 2005 08:2225141
Brief Summary Of Some Recent Headlines [423 words]orange yonasonAug 21, 2005 02:0124933
The Gate of the Western World [39 words]Ben SteinbergAug 19, 2005 20:2024912
Gaza disengagement will tell the world the truth [186 words]Dr. Richard & Arlene RoseAug 19, 2005 14:3624903
Gaza will not bring Peace [137 words]JaladhiAug 19, 2005 11:1024901
To Mr. Walter [85 words]Ibrahim MetwalliAug 18, 2005 16:5124877
Don't Waste Money On Words,.... [75 words]orange yonasonAug 18, 2005 15:4924875
Is Israel really defeated? To Mr. Ibrahim Metwalli [53 words]WalterAug 18, 2005 13:5224873
UN Contribution to Terror- Bruce [76 words]Anatoly TsaliovichAug 17, 2005 23:0224852
To Ellen Horowitz [19 words]orange yonasonAug 16, 2005 23:2024808
To Bhuvan Chaturvedi [132 words]orange yonasonAug 16, 2005 22:3924801
Israel is Clearly defeated [146 words]Ibrahim MetwalliAug 16, 2005 20:3524795
To Ibrahim metwally [208 words]Emmanuel Etchells-AyreSep 20, 2009 18:5624795
UN funding anti-Semitism [19 words]BruceAug 16, 2005 13:1024754
Voilence [25 words]peterJan 2, 2009 08:5224754
Learn from the Indian Experience! [123 words]Bhuvan Chaturvedi, IndiaAug 16, 2005 12:3524751
Now Gaza, soon Jerusalem !!! [55 words]StanAug 16, 2005 10:2324743
Standing Up [584 words]Ellen W. horowitzAug 16, 2005 07:1524736
The beginning of the end [84 words]Arvind MadhavanAug 16, 2005 03:5124726
Sharon not that stupid or naive. [205 words]Anthony DeeAug 16, 2005 01:0724715
History Shmistory [322 words]yonasonAug 15, 2005 03:4724643
the gaza withdrawal [275 words]nick wrightAug 15, 2005 02:1124641
History begins in 1948- Response to Henri [354 words]Walter ManchurAug 14, 2005 18:1724639
AL QAEDA POSITIONED TO MOVE INTO GAZA [1175 words]Jack StillAug 14, 2005 17:4824637
Sharon is the father of the Palestinian Terror Capital in Gaza [47 words]Robert HarrisAug 14, 2005 17:2124636
Response to Gary Frankford [350 words]DvoraAug 14, 2005 14:1224635
Henri Bin Mitty [207 words]henriAug 14, 2005 10:5924633
Gaza Today, Israel tomorrow [273 words]DvoraAug 14, 2005 07:4024630
1Response to Henri: Balfour and his bowler hat [261 words]Walter ManchurAug 14, 2005 02:3024628
It is time for every non-muslims to wake up [182 words]Albert SweAug 14, 2005 02:2224627
THE VIEW FROM GOLDA'S BALCONY HASN'T CHANGED [324 words]Jack StillAug 13, 2005 20:3924623
Why Gaza? Why Iraq? [1662 words]Gary FrankfordAug 13, 2005 12:4124617
Balfour The Cynical ... [428 words]henriAug 13, 2005 10:4524614
This is not the way to tackle Islamism [326 words]Amitabh TripathiAug 13, 2005 09:1524613
God is in control [109 words]Susan WalkerAug 13, 2005 00:5624608
Response to Henricrun [211 words]Walter ManchurAug 12, 2005 23:4324607
GAZA, JERUSALEM, AND MEF [2108 words]Anatoly TsaliovichAug 12, 2005 21:0624606
2JUMP START TO PHASED DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL [361 words]Bruce JosloffAug 12, 2005 20:3624605
I agree/Je suis d'accord [58 words]Robert MooneyAug 12, 2005 10:3624598
Humanity For All [277 words]henricrunAug 12, 2005 05:0124594
Israel's tired supporters... [166 words]AaronAug 12, 2005 03:0524592
To think like a terrorist [395 words]WernerAug 12, 2005 00:3124590
The "Chopped Liver" Majority [292 words]LLRAug 11, 2005 22:0124586
Anti-Terror Contingency [60 words]Ephraim liorAug 11, 2005 20:1324582
Might this be what Sharon is looking for? [147 words]David AroninAug 11, 2005 17:5024580
Gaza withdrawal [58 words]Mort ReichekAug 11, 2005 12:3724576
Whose fault is it? Whose fault will it be? [395 words]Jeremy SlavinAug 11, 2005 11:0424575
Somalia redux? [135 words]David W. LincolnAug 11, 2005 10:2324574
The human and long-term social costs glossed over [224 words]Raphael PintoAug 11, 2005 09:1924572
Response to SteveGW, August 10, 2005 at 23:56 [93 words]WallaceAug 11, 2005 08:1224571
Disengagement plan is beginning of Destruction of State of Israel [255 words]EliAug 11, 2005 07:2724570
The Most Dangerous Critics of Israel [156 words]Martin E. WeinsteinAug 11, 2005 03:4224566
Gaza Crazy [94 words]Arlinda DeAngelisAug 11, 2005 00:1124563
TINA [108 words]SteveGWAug 10, 2005 23:5624562
dont be too alarmed [259 words]garyAug 10, 2005 22:4624561
A Few Comments on the Gaza Disengagement [473 words]Solomon WeiskopAug 10, 2005 22:0624560
Downsizing and Outsourcing [47 words]DanAug 10, 2005 21:2324559
Beware the flames of frustration in the streets of Gaza [144 words]Melvin HassanAug 10, 2005 20:5324558
psychological games [208 words]daveAug 10, 2005 19:2424556
remember Bernadotte? [72 words]Asaf GolanAug 10, 2005 12:4924551
Response to Armand Laferrere [289 words]ElizabethAug 10, 2005 12:4624550
Today Gaza, tomorrow Jerusalem and then the whole of Israel [163 words]Lars NielsenAug 10, 2005 12:2324549
Is Gaza Withdrawal Strategic? [71 words]Jeremy KarekenAug 10, 2005 11:5724548
Gaza, Jerusalem [45 words]J MiddaghAug 10, 2005 11:5124547
Jihad [221 words]BenAug 10, 2005 11:3224545
Unilateral withdrawal a mistake [213 words]wilinskyAug 10, 2005 11:1424543
Removing Settlements Does not End Occupation [216 words]PeterAug 10, 2005 10:4624542
Will the new borders be easier to defend? [130 words]Joe DokesAug 10, 2005 10:2124541
Change of Perspective. [301 words]Melvin HassanAug 10, 2005 10:1124540
The Lebanon precedent for Gaza [91 words]mhwAug 10, 2005 09:5324539
Withdrawal from Gaza [77 words]KamathAug 10, 2005 09:5324538
Disengagement as a long term goal [344 words]SteveGWAug 10, 2005 09:3424537
strategic withdrawal [123 words]Marvin RabinovitchAug 10, 2005 04:1524531
Israel v/s Islam [846 words]KanadAug 10, 2005 03:3924530
Doomed to relive it. [42 words]Howard E. CookAug 10, 2005 03:3224529
appeasement and retreat lead to utter extermination [123 words]Gilbert SimonsAug 10, 2005 03:1624528
I get your point, but I'm still in favor of the pull-out [286 words]Armand LaferrereAug 10, 2005 02:2624526
Stop the pullout now! [115 words]YovenAug 10, 2005 01:0524523
It is darul harb vs darul isalm, not Gaza or Kashmir [91 words]voice of indiaAug 10, 2005 00:2524520
today Gaza ... [132 words]Steven LAug 9, 2005 23:0324517
Islamic Agenda 21st Century [66 words]EskayAug 9, 2005 22:1024516
Today Gaza, Tomorrow Jerusalem? [247 words]William KleinAug 9, 2005 21:3624515
There´s value in the withdrawal [72 words]Gerald S. DanknerAug 9, 2005 20:5424513
A voice of sanity [46 words]Steven FishbeinAug 9, 2005 20:3824512
Let's not neglect the economic reasons behind withdrawal. [112 words]Alexandru ConstantinescuAug 9, 2005 20:0624511
TODAY GAZA TOMORROW JERUSALEM [154 words]batya daganAug 9, 2005 19:1424510
It must be stopped before its to late. [150 words]SalimAug 9, 2005 19:0224509
Gaza [118 words]Irving WisemanAug 9, 2005 18:3324507
Another way of "naming" the Gaza Pullout [10 words]Bill ToutzAug 9, 2005 18:2624506
Justifiable War? [133 words]Bill KarkowAug 9, 2005 18:2624505
Same Elephant In Room, Same Paradigm [435 words]JTPAug 9, 2005 18:1624504
Disengagement is a mistake [82 words]JacobAug 9, 2005 17:3624503
Never Appease [108 words]ElizabethAug 9, 2005 17:2924502
Negative thinking of all Israeli Leaders from Left to right [195 words]David GoshenAug 9, 2005 16:5524500
NO to Palestinian Access to Gaza -West Bank Route. [133 words]AlanAug 9, 2005 16:4524499
Fighting from the wrong mindset [261 words]Steve ChambersAug 9, 2005 16:1224498
Develop a test [123 words]JohnAug 9, 2005 15:5124497
How about the real reason? [43 words]Tom from MinneapolisAug 9, 2005 15:4024496
the price of errors [185 words]ShelleyAug 9, 2005 15:2624495
Madness [7 words]PhillipAug 9, 2005 15:0224494
to Emannuel [250 words]Paul ZAug 9, 2005 14:2124493
Maybe eventually Palestinians will be treated to their own medicine. [52 words]maksmanAug 9, 2005 14:1224492
Gaza [179 words]Donald W. BalesAug 9, 2005 13:5624490
Sadly correct analysis... [67 words]J.S.Aug 9, 2005 13:4724489
The Samson Ethic? [349 words]Yehoshua ZellerAug 9, 2005 13:3124487
That's not the point... [269 words]dianeAug 9, 2005 13:1324485
Sadly, the Gaza Pullout is not Unique in Israeli History [168 words]Liz WagnerAug 9, 2005 13:0524484
Gaza withdrawal [53 words]Alyn StarkmanAug 9, 2005 13:0424483
What the real goal is ... [71 words]Gudrun EussnerAug 9, 2005 13:0224482
The hatred will never end... [70 words]Dave KatzAug 9, 2005 12:2324480
You are 100% correct!!! [33 words]Michael & Jacquelyn HevajraAug 9, 2005 12:2224479
Mr. Pipes is right, but... [163 words]Mark TylerAug 9, 2005 12:2024478
Yep [9 words]Melissa SeamanAug 9, 2005 12:1424477
I hope you are wrong. [92 words]Tim KaineAug 9, 2005 12:1124476
Who Cares? [53 words]Thomas DinsmoreAug 9, 2005 11:4824474
I wish you weren't correct, but I fear you are. [45 words]Magdalene IglarAug 9, 2005 11:4324473
Oh, oh! [62 words]yonasonAug 9, 2005 11:4224472
Life vs Death [11 words]Jay Martin BennettAug 9, 2005 11:2124471
Democracies DO move citizens. [120 words]DavidAug 9, 2005 11:0624470
Forcible eviction from Gush Katif [79 words]Dr. Leo HorowitzAug 9, 2005 11:0524469
social-science experiment. [123 words]Johanna StephensAug 9, 2005 11:0224468
Today Gaza, Tomorrow Jerusalem [164 words]Moses TayAug 9, 2005 10:5624467
Confusing points [367 words]EmanuelAug 9, 2005 10:5424466
Deluded And Deceived [171 words]DONEVANAug 9, 2005 10:4524465
Disengagement leads to war? [68 words]Jan VinkAug 9, 2005 10:3724464
Gaza Retreat Article [102 words]John SchwartzAug 9, 2005 10:3124463
the Hezbollah model? [104 words]mikeAug 9, 2005 10:2024462
Give an inch and take a mile [82 words]Vijay DandapaniAug 9, 2005 10:0424459
Engagement Not Disengagement [64 words]DanielAug 9, 2005 09:3724458
Israel's Critics [226 words]Stephen BermanAug 9, 2005 09:3624457

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