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An internal Turkish political crisis, an invasion of Kurdish Iraq, or just "Fetih bayram"? A reply to Ianus.

Reader comment on item: A Critical Moment For Turkey
in response to reader comment: "Fetih bayram" - Islamists and secularists march together to celebrate the 554th anniversary of the "liberation" of Constantinope from the Greek occupation

Submitted by James Vesce (United States), Jul 18, 2007 at 15:33

There have been millions of Turks marching in the streets this past spring and summer, and maybe it has something to do with a national "We conquered Constantinople" celebration on one of those days, but I think the central issue has more to do with the current conflicts between Erdogan's Islamist party and the secularist military. That would explain why people from both sides of the issue were out in the streets.

When Prime Minister Erdogan tried to nominate Foreign Minister Gul to the presidency, it would have upset the balance of power in Turkey by creating a situation where the Islamists claimed both the Prime Minister's and the President's offices. In response to Erdogan's slick move, the military wrote a memorandum of protest, opposition party members and independents boycotted the elections, the parliamentary vote failed to achieve a quorum of 2/3 of the 550 member parliament, and the high court declared the election invalid. An election July 22 was declared, and we are now just a few days away from that election. That's why people were out in the street.

I love Ianus' mastery of Turkish history. Don't we all? I'm just putting a different point on it. I can't find substantial disagreement with Ianus.

The pressing, current Turkish issues have included secularism versus Islamism, and also some competition for which brand of Islamism we prevail if Islamism is inevitable in Turkey.

The Turkish issues have also included the often-incompatible demands of security versus economic prosperity. In this realm of competing issues the secular military has taken the lead in demonstrating a willingness to move against the PKK terrorists in Iraqi Kurdistan while Erdogan's Islamists have been able to stabilize the economy and win support in the business sector, particularly among Anatolians. Erdogan's Islamists have been accused of being "soft on terrorists" whenever the military has been more willing to control the PKK.

An independent candidate (who was also an opposition newspaper owner) was assassinated last Friday.

200,000 troops have massed on the Turkish-Iraqi border, and both the military and the government have declared their readiness to invade Kurdistan in Iraq to defend Turkey from PKK terrorists. Their plans have been described as "detailed", and Turkey has claimed they can execute the invasion within a 24-hour period.

Recognizing that the military has won popular support, before the July 22 election, by launching some limited incursions into Kurdistan and demonstrating how willing they are to take action to protect Turkey from PKK terrorists, Erdogan and Gul have covered their political bases by saying they're ready for an invasion, too. It is likely that Erdogan's Islamists would like to stall an invasion until after the July 22 election, simply because an invasion would have a destabilizing effect on the Turkish domestic economy, and lose political support for Erdogan's Islamists from the business sector.

The fact that a "buffer zone" around the anticipated region of Turkish military operations in Kurdish Iraq has been declared until mid-September indicates that invasion planners are taking the July 22 election very much into account in their planning.

The July 22 date in Turkey resonates very loudly with a July 15 deadline Syria announced for Syrians to vacate Lebanon, so that they'd be safe from expected "eruptions" that might take place in Lebanon. We now find that Syria has moved troops three miles into Lebanon, though they've moved into essentially unoccupied territory, and the incursion hasn't attracted much attention from the international news services.

Is that small Syrian incursion into Lebanon an echo of the small Turkish incursion into Kurdistan a few weeks ago? Are these Muslim countries "testing the waters" to see what reaction the US and Israel and NATO will show, if any?

The American government has condemned a Turkish invasion of Kurdistan, naturally, but in other statements we have acknowledged that the US military has been unable to control the PKK, and we acknowledge that the Iraqi police and military have been unable to control the PKK. The PKK has been labeled a terrorist organization by the US, and by others, for years. We respect Turkey's right to defend themselves from terrorists. Turkey has asked the US to explain why PKK terrorists have been using American weapons, and the US does not want to be seen as sponsoring Kurdish Muslim terrorists. It is almost a sideways approval of a limited invasion when our military states that the Turks had enough military resources to provide for Turkish security before the build-up of forces occurred, sort of like saying that the 50,000 or so troops they usually post there would be enough, and such a smaller invasion would be more easily tolerated by us, and Turkey shouldn't need 200,000 troops. At his point it is almost as though we're dickering over the size of Turkey's invasion, rather than dickering over whether there will be an invasion.

So, why so many Turkish troops on the border? I think Turkey anticipates a longer and broader mission into Kurdish Iraq than merely mopping up some PKK and then going back home. I think the Turks are prepared to compete with Iran for the Kurdish territory, as well as dealing with the Kurds and maybe some Iraqis. I think Turkey recognizes that if the Iranians suspect a Turkish move to occupy Kurdish territory on a more permanent basis, knowing Turkey has made a claim to that territory since World War I, Iran will also make a bid for that territory, and Turkish troops would then have to be prepared to deal with the Iranian military.

If the US wants somebody to engage the Iranians right now, it would be terrific if that privilege fell to the Turkish military. That would be a real good reason to "stand aside" while Turkey deployed their military assets. Turkey is the nation most likely to block an Iranian attempt to grab the lion's share of territory in Iraq, if such territory were up for grabs. No, I don't think the Turkish military is any great friend of the US and Israel, but they are the defenders of secularism in Turkey by tradition and by the Turkish constitution, and they've spoken with the US and Israel when the Erdogan government hasn't. Erdogan has been connected with sponsoring al Qaeda terrorism through his connections with Yasin al-Qadi, about whom Erdogan said, "I believe in him as I believe in myself."

We're in the situation of having to pick between greater and lesser evils, and between more or less immediate threats, and between potential threats. We don't have a lot of good choices, but we have to choose.

Do the Turks expect their military to be in conflict with our military? I think not. With congress calling for withdrawing our troops from Iraq, Turkey expects their invasion to be "allowed" by the US. Congress will never approve sufficient military resources for the US to take on the Turkish military because Turkey actually has the biggest and most capable military force of any Muslim country in the Middle East. American-Turkish relations are important, as are Turkish-Israeli relations, and the Turkish military has consistently been willing to talk to Israel and the US during the same period of time when Erdogan's Islamists have pulled Turkey away from the US and Israel.

Where does Israel fit into all this? I suspect that if there's war on two fronts, with Hizbullah attacking Israel from Lebanon with support from Syria and Iran, and with Turkey invading Kurdish territory in Iraq, all the countries surrounding Iraq will be preparing for a fragmenting of Iraq into territorial splinters. It will be much easier for Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Iran and Turkey to move into territories in Iraq in order to "protect themselves from a terrorist threat", than it would be for them to challenge the mighty Israeli military. After all, Saudi Arabia has been attacked by al Qaeda. Jordan has been attacked by al Qaeda. Turkey has been attacked by the PKK. Syria has been attacked by al Qaeda. Who knows about Iran, but they say they've been attacked, too, by the PKK, and they've fired some artillery into Kurdistan just to prove their point.

We've asked the nations surrounding Iraq to take a more active role at maintaining peace in Iraq. It would only stand to reason that they'd move some troops into the regions where they'd "take a more active role in keeping the peace". Hey, it's the Middle East. Peace looks different there than it looks like here.

When all the dust settles later this fall, Israel may very well still be intact. All the attention is likely to have gone into determining the fate of the splinters of territory that used to be Iraq. The US military may have had a nice opportunity to retreat into rural regions of Iraq, and to have redeployed into positions far from the fighting in Baghdad. We probably should be moving some of the millions of tons of equipment we have over there out of the cities and into the desert, and we should prepare to either destroy it or give it to somebody we want to have it when we bring troops back to the USA.

When it's over, Turkey may have attacked Iran's nuclear sites. Or maybe Israel will have done it. Maybe we will have done it. With all the planes and missiles flying around, it's going to be hard to keep track of whose missile actually wiped out Iranian nuclear sites, and everybody except the Ayatollahs will be glad it happened. Once it's over and done, we can have a congressional commission study it for a couple of years.

Our political position will be that such a splintering of territory in Iraq has been inevitable for decades (hasn't it?), and that we gave Iraq a chance at democratic government (that is what we did), and Iraq simply and collectively blew the opportunity we gave them (Amen to that).

Submitting....

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Title Commenter Date Thread
4apologize [48 words]duygu kumaşOct 13, 2010 13:47179233
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Armenian Genocide bill timing and other political observations [1559 words]saraOct 31, 2007 17:27112397
Reply to Doc Tater : Turkey Attacking Iraqi Kurds, and the House non-vote on the Armenian Genocide [1206 words]farukSep 4, 2012 16:50112397
Democrats or Rebuplican does not matter , politicians use Armenians and vice versa Armenians use politicians. [577 words]farukSep 4, 2012 21:58112397
3Our dear faruk is really saying that there was an Armenian genocide and as if we kuffar did not know [194 words]dhimmi no moreSep 6, 2012 07:18112397
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2 Cardinal Facts about Pakistanis [299 words]free beeMay 31, 2007 16:0395121
2 other cardinal facts about pakistan [194 words]susanMay 31, 2007 16:3395121
4"Fetih bayram" - Islamists and secularists march together to celebrate the 554th anniversary of the "liberation" of Constantinope from the Greek occupation [671 words]IanusMay 28, 2007 13:1695018
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3Americans dreams and Turkey's plans [1750 words]IanusJul 22, 2007 06:1995018
2To Ianus (Poland) : liberation of Constantinope from the Latin occupation [1075 words]farukSep 4, 2012 20:1795018
21453 another "defensive" Turkish war ! [1980 words]IanusSep 5, 2012 21:2595018
Ianusidis [48 words]MaliSep 18, 2012 15:3695018
1A pictorial reply after a verbal one has visibly failed [415 words]IanusSep 18, 2012 18:4995018
1Turks ... [62 words]maliSep 21, 2012 15:1195018
5Not Ianus, but great Jalal ad-Din Rumi will tell you why Turks are barbarians. [480 words]IanusSep 22, 2012 13:3895018
1How to Islamize Classical European Literature ? The Turkish Ministry of National Education knows how ! [592 words]IanusMay 25, 2007 18:0294559
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3Moderate Muslim equals to Moderate Nazi [229 words]Egyptian ChristianMay 21, 2007 12:4193913
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1Islam Will Not Grant Equal Rights..... [169 words]Domenic PepeMay 22, 2007 19:3493913
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ms susan [20 words]free beeMay 30, 2007 14:2693913
little History for dhimmi and susan [208 words]free beeMay 30, 2007 14:5993913
1For our Dear FreeBee and more Muslim meltdown big time [332 words]dhimmi no moreMay 30, 2007 19:3693913
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To Vijay and Singh [80 words]un drainedMay 31, 2007 18:0693913
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Singh [53 words]free beeMay 31, 2007 18:2093913
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Mr AS [36 words]free beeJun 4, 2007 17:4693913
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w/response from Daniel Pipes
QuaoarMay 16, 2007 13:1093246
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2Dr. Pipes and Cyprus [333 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
IanusMay 16, 2007 10:0593170
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3Why Turkey will never be a democracy [929 words]IanusMay 24, 2007 16:5293160
1secular or not you still murder minorities [68 words]susanMay 25, 2007 11:3593160
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15Ataturk Declared Islam Was the Enemy of Turkey. Today Islam Is the Enemy of the World. [475 words]Domenic PepeMay 16, 2007 05:2293158
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Domenic Pepe [62 words]Azeem MehmetMay 17, 2007 11:1093158
American Awakening to the Threat of Islam [163 words]Domenic PepeMay 17, 2007 17:0793158
go back [26 words]surjMay 18, 2007 18:2093158
READ Pat's Comments [8 words]Azeem MehmetMay 21, 2007 14:3293158
Relax Mehmet! [74 words]MosheMay 24, 2007 03:0893158
10ataturk started fascism in turkey [371 words]susanMay 25, 2007 11:4793158
Moshe [23 words]A MehmetMay 25, 2007 17:2693158
1poor excuse [77 words]susanMay 26, 2007 11:0693158
SUSAN [10 words]SAMSON BELLJun 1, 2007 13:2593158
What Is This All About [250 words]KemalJun 20, 2007 09:2293158
boo hoo ... what a surprise [477 words]susanJun 20, 2007 16:4793158
Yes, but,.. [183 words]berkMar 12, 2010 22:3793158
atatürk [133 words]duygu kumaşOct 13, 2010 13:1693158
La.illaha ill Allah mohmnadan rasulullah [24 words]Ex Secular TurkNov 5, 2016 14:3393158
Are these so called Moderate Muslim Turks willing to apologise for Massacre of Armenian Christians ??? [72 words]ChadashMay 16, 2007 00:4993146
1Hitler as a prophet [67 words]IanusMay 16, 2007 17:5993146
In reply [16 words]ÖmerMay 17, 2007 02:2993146
As a person who you call "moderated" my answers are... [675 words]Deniz TolgaMay 20, 2007 20:1893146
2"Armenian genocide ?" "Either it never happened or it was just a mass suicide . The Turks were in any case innocent." [1881 words]IanusMay 22, 2007 16:3793146
typical answers of turks, please read here the "moderation" [231 words]susanMay 25, 2007 11:5393146
Reply to Susan [329 words]Deniz TolgaMay 27, 2007 09:4393146
usual reply [1110 words]susanMay 28, 2007 10:4793146
Mosques in places once subjugated by Moslems [260 words]IanusMay 28, 2007 18:3093146
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1Turkish race is a joke [16 words]IanusNov 7, 2009 14:4193146
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What I'd like to see in US diplomacy toward Turkey... [143 words]Rick HouseMay 15, 2007 18:3593130
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1" Turks give NOT ONE FIG about America's "vision for Turkey"" - Isn't it an understatement ? [936 words]IanusMay 19, 2007 11:3693130
Metal Firtina - the new smash hit [211 words]PatMay 20, 2007 19:5693130
Mecca - the new UN headquarters [70 words]IanusMay 22, 2007 16:5393130
1Metal Firtina - the final scene [228 words]IanusMay 23, 2007 15:3793130
There's already some footage available [109 words]PatMay 23, 2007 19:4693130
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PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan: ""Let's not focus on this but on making friends,..." [988 words]marianaMay 25, 2007 00:4093130
Only in America [209 words]PatMay 25, 2007 09:3993130
4Turks are more dangerous as friends than as enemies [1996 words]IanusMay 26, 2007 17:0893130
No "optimism" then [39 words]IanusMay 26, 2007 17:4993130
ALL OF AMERICA'S "FRIENDS" ARE MORE DANGEROUS TO US THAN OUR ENEMIES..."Let's not focus on this [overt acts of aggression], but on making friends,..." [1805 words]marianaMay 30, 2007 17:0593130
1ALL OF AMERICA'S "FRIENDS" ARE MORE DANGEROUS TO US THAN OUR ENEMIES... Russia is not a friend , so perhaps it might be given a chance ? [989 words]IanusJun 3, 2007 15:1293130
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1„ Under the spreading chestnut tree I sold you and you sold me." [4733 words]IanusJun 6, 2007 07:5493130
Back to Basics. [1317 words]marianaJun 7, 2007 15:5693130
1A thought experiment [2613 words]IanusJun 9, 2007 19:1793130
Rearranging deck chairs on the titamic [114 words]Roosevelt's DiscipleMay 15, 2007 14:3093098
A Critical Moment for Turkey [109 words]Iftikhar AhmadMay 15, 2007 13:3593092
I'm - almost - at a loss for words [291 words]ÖmerMay 15, 2007 16:5593092
1For our dear Omer, and speaking of being at a loss for words [528 words]dhimmi no moreMay 16, 2007 07:5993092
Iftikhar Ahmed [14 words]Un DrainMay 16, 2007 15:0893092
I'm a proud Turk [73 words]Azeem MehmetMay 16, 2007 15:1593092
alphabets [91 words]surjMay 16, 2007 16:0493092
Proud Muslim [103 words]surjMay 16, 2007 16:2993092
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In response [802 words]ÖmerMay 17, 2007 02:1593092
The simplest rationale [77 words]ÖmerMay 17, 2007 02:2193092
1Our Dear Omer the Turk and the Armenian genocide! [291 words]dhimmi no moreMay 18, 2007 07:2993092
Reply to Dhimmi no more [127 words]EuropeanMay 18, 2007 20:2293092
"Crude racist remarks" Really? [15 words]dhimmi no moreMay 19, 2007 09:4493092
Our dear Omer the Turk and his bogus falsafa [301 words]dhimmi no moreMay 19, 2007 18:5293092
dhimmi check your copy of the Quran [89 words]Azeem MehmetMay 21, 2007 14:5993092
To dhimmi no more [59 words]ÖmerMay 21, 2007 15:0293092
In final response to Ex-Dhimmi [433 words]ÖmerMay 21, 2007 15:3793092
For our dear Omer [186 words]dhimmi no moreMay 22, 2007 07:2793092
azeem [192 words]dihmmi no moreMay 22, 2007 20:0293092
Turkish homeland [237 words]TijenMay 24, 2007 11:5693092
dhimmi no more [132 words]Azeem MehmetMay 24, 2007 16:2893092
19Conversion of the Turks to Islam [654 words]IanusMay 25, 2007 08:4193092
study YOUR history [719 words]susanMay 25, 2007 12:1593092
silly questions [255 words]susanMay 25, 2007 12:3093092
1"Vatan"(homeland) - an Arabic word for a non-existing Turkish concept [544 words]IanusMay 25, 2007 15:3593092
But you can prove me wrong! [48 words]dhimmi no moreMay 25, 2007 19:5193092
I'm proud to be a kaffir! [32 words]dhimmi no moreMay 26, 2007 06:3393092
More bogus claims by our dear Tijen the Turk [152 words]dihmmi no moreMay 26, 2007 06:4193092
Here is the proof for dhimmi from Quran [161 words]A MehmetMay 30, 2007 17:4093092
Islam is the religion of the Arabs and this is what the Qur'an really says and you ain't no Arab [539 words]dhimmi no moreMay 31, 2007 19:3293092
dhimmi makes NO sense [155 words]Un DrainedJun 4, 2007 18:3593092
Lousy Arabic? Wanna share with us? [44 words]dhimmi no moreJun 5, 2007 17:0393092
Drano and the Qur'an really says that islam is really the religion of the arabs and you ain't one [202 words]dhimmi no moreJun 5, 2007 21:0793092
dhimmi [79 words]un drainedJun 7, 2007 11:0993092
the Qur'an really says that islam is really the religion of the arabs and you ain't one part deux [83 words]dhimmi no moreJun 7, 2007 20:0693092
Another bogus claim by drano [109 words]dihmmi no moreJun 7, 2007 20:1493092
More fantasy from our dear drano [51 words]dhimmi no moreJun 7, 2007 20:4093092
Drano and the Qur'an really says that islam is really the religion of the arabs and you ain't one part trois [336 words]dhimmi no moreJun 8, 2007 06:4593092
Just facts [58 words]TijenJun 8, 2007 10:5293092
The Turk Tijen and two words: Bogus again [200 words]dhimmi no moreJun 8, 2007 16:4593092
1Drano and the Qur'an really says that islam is really the religion of the arabs and you ain't one part quatre [328 words]dhimmi no moreJun 9, 2007 07:2793092
The Demographic Puzzle and the Kurds [81 words]SophiaMay 15, 2007 12:4093090
The Demographic Puzzle and the Kurds [550 words]IanusMay 15, 2007 17:5093090
Natural allies of the USA and contradiction with recent articles by Dr Pipes [187 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
HarrakMay 15, 2007 12:1593087
The Turkish prime minister [144 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
HarrakMay 23, 2007 00:2093087
Thanks, that was a better explaining reference [81 words]HarrakMay 31, 2007 10:3793087
A Critical Moment For Turkey [146 words]Kim SegarMay 15, 2007 10:3692971
The "secularists" are not a good choice either [102 words]AMDGMay 15, 2007 08:4192965
Iraq, Kosovo and Turkey - Does Bush the Bungler have a clue? [342 words]James BurkeMay 15, 2007 08:3992963
Grateful - who Muslims?? Nah!!! [126 words]JaladhiMay 15, 2007 15:4592963
Folly or money ? [142 words]IanusMay 15, 2007 17:1392963
World is fed up of Islamic Terrorism and Bloodshed [70 words]okisMay 16, 2007 11:0892963
I am shocked to see these photos , its beginning of World War III . [66 words]FinusuMay 16, 2007 11:1392963
Both Folly & $$$ - Giving aid and comfort to enemies is standard for the White House [305 words]James BurkeMay 17, 2007 07:2892963
STATE DEPARTMENT GETS IT ALL WRONG ON TURKEY AND ITS EU CANDIDACY [799 words]Joel SteinMay 15, 2007 08:1792962
Europe is already Islamized [278 words]PatMay 17, 2007 11:5592962
are you looking closely at USA? [93 words]susanMay 25, 2007 12:3592962
Oh really? [98 words]PatMay 26, 2007 08:0992962
Susan: please check your statistics [40 words]free beeMay 31, 2007 16:0792962
muslim doctors are a fraud, here's link to prove it [321 words]susanMay 31, 2007 16:2392962
Our dear Freebee and statistics! [190 words]dhimmi no moreJun 1, 2007 07:1092962
About FREE BEE forcing Data. [286 words]Ynna(tchkah)Jun 1, 2007 15:1192962
FREE BEE NEVER answered my e-mail which proves.. [42 words]YnnatchkahJun 2, 2007 01:5492962
Salaamun. (Peace). [200 words]Jason Quddus MowSep 4, 2007 19:3592962
pleaaaase [35 words]susanSep 6, 2007 05:5292962
1Salaamun. (Peace). [499 words]Jason Quddus MowSep 6, 2007 18:1192962
moderate islamist [49 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
koolkargaMay 15, 2007 07:1592955

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