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You are grossly over-estimating Iran's capabilities, Harrak

Reader comment on item: Israeli Jets vs. Iranian Nukes
in response to reader comment: Good action analysis but how about reaction! let us be reasonable

Submitted by Bryan Jackson (Canada), Jun 13, 2007 at 12:38

1- Precise attack by Iranians from Lebanon on the Dimona Nuclear reactor in Israel spreading radiation.Explain how the Iranian military will be able to pull off such a strike on Israel's most heavily guarded facility? The IDF would be there waiting for them - that is if their helicopters don't get shot down by IAF long before they get to Dimona. And on top of that, Dimona's reactor shell is at least a couple feet thick, so even if they did succeed spreading radiation around is extremely unlikely.

2- One year consecutive non-interrupted 100 missiles raining on Israel from Hizbollah positions.Again, not likely. Hezbollah knows what will happen if they try that - and they are one nasty attack from having Israel level the entirety of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah found out last time that the Israelis really don't care about what happens in Lebanon when they are there, that much has been known since Sabra and Shatila in 1982.

3- Destruction of USA maintenance facilities in UAE, in S.Oman, Bahrein, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait leading to regime change mainly in Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE.Again, there are two US carrier groups in the Gulf. Iran even attempts that and they'll have a load of USN F/A-18 Hornets bombing the bejesus out of anything they can find, if their F-15s and F-16s don't wipe the Iranian Air Force right out. Regime changes? Tell me how the Iranians are gonna pull that off, because Iran tired once to kick over the government in Bahrain and failed.

4- Closure of Hurmuz straitsWith two US carrier groups there it would only be closed until USN and USAF jets turn the area where Iranian defences are into a wasteland.

5- Appearance of New Islamic republics in the Gulf and end of Israeli statehood.
No way is Iran's actions gonna cause a regime change - they've been trying to do that in the Gulf states for 30 years and haven't succeeded once yet. I don't think that will change. End of Israeli statehood? Dream on.


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