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Expecting the Unexpected

Reader comment on item: Israeli Jets vs. Iranian Nukes

Submitted by Moshe (Israel), Jun 12, 2007 at 15:40

The Raas-Long study is the result of speculations based on known data and on known historic events. The Iranians are not stupid, and they know how to take in account all the possible scenarios presented in this study (as well as other studies), and prepare themselves for them. It is therefore naïve to believe that "The Raas-Long study, therefore, makes a diplomatic deal more likely. Its results deserve the widest possible dissemination." ...

The Osirak Operation of the Israeli Air Force in 1981 succeeded because nobody imagined that such an operation is a realistic option. Just like the preemptive strike against the Arab Air Forces at the beginning of the Six Days War; or like the Operation Entebbe.

None of the above could succeed the second time. After having been successfully accomplished once, they became obsolete.

The next Israeli operation can succeed only if it will be as daring, surprising, and unexpected as the previous ones. This time I wouldn't bet on it…..unless another miracle happens. Who knows?


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