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And conservatives should avoid overconfidence

Reader comment on item: Fellow Conservatives, Please Reject Conspiracy Theories

Submitted by Dave (United States), Jan 6, 2022 at 17:37

Right now, a Republican rout of the Dems in the midterms looks like a shoo-in, but conservatives should avoid overconfidence, particularly for 2024.
Some major issues hurting the Dems' popularity right now seem to be inflation, crime, and the border fiasco they created. Add in Biden's bumbling leadership style, the Afghanistan disaster, lousy approval ratings, and things are looking pretty good for the Republicans in November.
Yet, raindrops on the parade are possible. A big Dem positive would be if the Fed tightened money enough to tame inflation. That could take several months, and relief may not come in time for the midterms, but it could come before 2024. On crime, it looks like a lot of blue states might finally be waking up to the necessity of stricter law enforcement. Meanwhile, who knows, maybe the Biden admin will get control of the border, or at least make significant improvements. That's doubtful, but while the border doesn't have as direct an impact on people as the economy, it would be a badly needed PR boost. Meanwhile, covid, a bugbear for any politician, will probably be old news by 2024.
In foreign policy, if the Biden admin keeps things quiet, then the public's notoriously short-term memory will probably forget Afghanistan. In general, foreign policy has little impact on public opinion unless it directly impacts people, such as Pearl Harbor or 911. An example of an impactful event would be if China takes Taiwan, and that disrupts the semiconductor supply enough to hurt the economy. However, it's worth pointing out that the Bay of Pigs and the Vietnam loss debacles had little impact on presidential popularity at the time.
If these issues can be finessed by the Dems by 2024, the Republicans nominate Trump, and the Dems pick someone more coherent, I'd place my bets on the Dems to win. Trump is simply too eccentric, he'll get a horrible press, and he alone could cause another Republican loss in 2024 if the race is close. Time will tell.

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