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all other things being equal

Reader comment on item: Predicting a Majority-Muslim Russia
in response to reader comment: The Myth of Muslim Population Growth in Russia

Submitted by Doug (United States), Jan 1, 2013 at 16:09

All projections depend on two usually false assumptions; "all other things being equal" and the never are and "if current trends continue" and they never do. In Cecil Rhodes' time, the number of Englishmen living in China was growing faster than the number of Chinese. From this he concluded that Anglo-Saxons would eventually outnumber Chinese in China. Currently fertility is declining in the Moslem world. It is already below replacement level in Iran, Tunisia and Turkey. Should we assume that fertility will continue to decline until it reaches 0?

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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