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These reasons and polls suggest a McCain victory

Reader comment on item: Predicting the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Submitted by Peter Kauffner (Viet Nam), Apr 28, 2008 at 23:02

The religious Democrats who are now voting for Hillary will of course vote for Obama in the general. We are, after all, talking about people who are are voting in the Democratic primaries. Historically, primary results don't tell you anything about what to expect in the general election. This year is a little different because McCain is the person Hillary is pretending to be, i.e. the guy with the experience and foriegn policy cred to handle the 3 a.m phone call.

I see two reasons to expect a McCain victory.

1) The national polls have been stable for at least a month and they show the McCain-Obama race as tied. Obama has consistently underpreformed in primaries compared to the pre-primary polls by about 4-5 points. This may be because his supporters tend to be younger and have a lower turnout, or perhaps it is because the "Bradley effect" causes undecides to break for Hillary in the last days of the campaign.

2) McCain is ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These are the pivotal swing states and are also opinion leaders. They've seen more of the candidates than other states and have been polled more frequently and with greater scrutiny.

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