Re: Iranian irrationality

Submitted by Dan (United States), Jun 24, 2007 at 22:07

Moshe,

I'm ultimately guesstimating. But then, so are you. But then, so is most of our intel.

As I said, Iran is not the Japan of 1945 - or more accurately, 1941. I.E. They have not conducted a state invasion or attack of another sovereign nation. They may be huffin' and puffin' to 'wipe Israel off the map', yet talk is cheap. Especially when Amade-najad (sp?) does not actually control their military. Yet, they are surrounded by those they consider the enemy (our military bases, troops, Israel, etc.). If attacked then, they would irrationally respond without necessarily heeling like we're estimating.

Ultimately, I'm betting on their willingness not to commit state suicide for 70 million people. There's a difference between suicide and dying while defending yourself. I may be totally wrong, but then, I see attacking them open-endedly without knowing where that will lead - based on a hunch that they'll nuke Israel the first chance they get, is a bit irrational as well.

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