Iraq, the harder game than that of Lebanon
Reader comment on item: Civil war likely in Iraq: Pipes

Submitted by HARRAK (Canada), Mar 8, 2006 at 11:45

Here is the power and terror game in Iraq that USA may not yet understand unless they have hired now some ...academia like people in the foreign secretary and not the darn copy and paste (militaria) staff.

there is a multitude of armed militias in Iraq -some of which are already formed- that will fight the coalition of Costa Rica (willing) under the following command structure except the Beshmaga:

The known players
a- The Dawa party (loyalty to Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fazlullah) militia will be a shadow movement of Amal in lebanon. These guys use carrot more than stick. Action depends on Fatwa from Fazlullah and blessing from Sistani.

b- The Badr Brigade (loyalty to Ayatollah M.Saeed al Hakim and dept loyalty to Iran government that gave them refuge for 20 years) they use carrot and hidden stick. They will not hesitate to return the favor of Iran and their cohabitation with US allies is nothing but an expiring new moon.

c- The Mahdi Army (Ayatollah Kazem al Haeeri based in Iran) use stick without carrot. Although follow al Haeeri, they will use but not show their stick when the Haeeri commands go against Sistani's. Yet when Sistani and Haeri meet in a command, The sadrists will use their stick openly.

The use of sticks in the a, b and c depends on how long the Costa Rica coalittion will last, the calming of tensions with Iran and Syria and how much power the three factions will have in the future Iraqi governments.

d- The Kurdish Beshmargas: they use the carot only. May never use the stick agaist the coalition and have interest in the long lasting of occupation to strengthen autonomy and install firmly the federation.

The hidden players:
e- The foreign aliens: Armed individuals with suicide like mission infiltrating from Wahabi Arabia and from Syria. the purpose is terror and instability.

f- Hizbollah: Armed and highly trained individuals in suicide like mission coming from or trained by Iran to hit specific targets of the coalition and some Iraqi personals regardless of the collateral damage.

g- Individual angry citizens: those who take a knife and attack others including coalition soldiers for revenge or to denounce the situation.

So when something happens in Iraq now, who know who did it? given the explanation above?!

If America lost control over lebanon just because of Hizbollah and Palestinians, how can America have control over a country with a multitude of Hizbollah like groups, and a large territory with two rivals: Iran and Syria. Imagine Iran now gives stinger like anti-plane missiles to those groups, what will happen?!

Iraq is worse than lebanon and I can say that the coalition will lose control soon. EXCEPT if they stop harassing Iran and Syria, than a sort of Cohabitation may occure. That is the only exception..

Later,

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