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I agree with your 2-nd point only conditionally.

Reader comment on item: Ariel Sharon, Escapist

Submitted by ag (United States), Nov 28, 2005 at 15:41

"I predict that Sharon's Kadima Party will (1) fall about as abruptly as it has arisen and (2) leave behind a meager legacy."

And the condition is: he will not be able to further legitimize an unconditional unilateral withdrawal. Otherwise the legacy would not be meager and it would be hugely negative.
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