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Russia, the US and other wildebeasts

Reader comment on item: Middle East Provocations and Predictions
in response to reader comment: Near Misses Now, Wait for the Did Not Miss's

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Oct 9, 2015 at 19:12

Hi, Tovey

It's good to see you, because you seriously consider the prophecies. Yes, there were some Turkish vs Russian encounters -- which have grabbed headlines, but don't amount to much. Besides this, there was a brief - and questionable - report of an Israeli vs Russian face-off, where six Russian jets locked radar on fuor Israelis over Syrian waters in the Mediterranean. The big significance of the latter is that if it actually happened (and I tend to think it did but has been hushed up), the Israeli response of retreating leaves Israel unable to conduct proper aircraft surveilance of weapons being channelled to Hizbullah. They still have limited satellite capability, hower, as well as never-to-be-trusted intelligence sharing with the Americans. Netanyahu is trying to make up for this deficit by leaning hard on the Russians for intelligence cooperation. At the worst, it seems, Hizbullah wil take advantage of Israel's predicament, and massively re-arm. That would mean that when Israel and Hizbullah finally do thrash it out, there will likely be more casualties on both sides.

Russian motives should be looked at in terms of the world picture. The Russkies are alpha males of a small herd (including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Syria, etc.). They are trying to woo cows from Big Alpha, which is to say, the US. They've been working with Georgia and the Ukraine, with some success. I dare say, the Iranians consider themselves bulls and see the Russians as competitors of sorts. The Russians certainly aren't doing well with Turkey and the Saudis (Sunni Islamist states, and therefore no friends of Assad), by backing Assad; though they may have scored a point or two with Egypt (by supporting the establishment and opposing the Islamists).

If the Russians want to continue to deepen their involvement in Syria, they will ultimately lose unless they accomplish a coup of far greater magnitude -- not a stray cow here and there in the Middle East, but the great harem that is Europe. To this end, the more they can look like a bare-chested tough guy on horseback and make the Americans look like Barack Obama, the more likely they are to capture not a country here and a country there, but a massive shift of allegience. In this respect, Russia's intervention should be looked at more as a propaganda exercise than as a serious military venture.

Lots of prophecy followers are probably looking for significant changes this sukkot, alerted by the ominous red super-moon eclipse at the start of Sukkot. There have been a lot of things happening, to grab the headlines:

  1. Russia's intervention in Syria
  2. The "knife" intifada in Israel
  3. A rash of unrelated shootings and stabbings in the US
  4. Mysterious bombings and explosions in China
  5. The migrant crisis in Europe
  6. The Trans-pacific Partnership deal (TPP)
  7. A reshuffling of leadership in the US Republican Party

In the long run, I see the TPP as having the most impact. If the US and Japan both ratify it, as ultimately seems likely, it's a shoo-in. This will give the US leverage against China in East Asia, ensuring that our cows there like Australia, Malaysia and Singapore stay aligned with Japan and the US. Taiwan will also be encouraged to resist assimilation into PR China, and the South Koreans are likely to reconsider their flirtation with them as well. India may also be encouraged to "look East" -- which, in the sociological sense, actually means to "look West". More importantly, the EU will have to realize that they are no longer dealing with the US, a unitary state, but a conglomerate producing 35-40% of the world's GDP, in negotiating the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership). If and when THAT deal comes through, then, Alpha America will be incharge of a harem consisting of:

  • the US America
  • India
  • the UK Britain
  • France
  • South Korea
  • Germany
  • Japan
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • Indonesia
  • Australia
  • Canada
  • Taiwan
  • Italy
  • Poland
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam
  • and a host of others

Looking at the world this way, seeing it as the veldt of snorting, mooing, butting wildebeasts that it is, it's also worth noting that China, despite all the disinformation from DEBLAfiles and copycat sources, has NOT joined the Russians and Iranians in Syria. They simply do not have the capability to operate militarily in a significant way, so far from their home shores. In a year or two, they may have a sufficient blue-water navy to challenge the US in the South and East China Seas, dissipating America's overall strength elsewhere in the world (in the Middle East, for instance). That leaves Russia all on its own in Syria, with only fleeting friend Iran to support it. I think that serious Western military planners understand this.

Submitting....

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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