Honor Among Thieves

Submitted by Robert Schwartz (United States), Feb 2, 2006 at 02:11

All of this back and forth assumes that Fatah will deliver the Palestinian state apparatus, such as it is, intact and timely to Hamas. I do not think that this assumption will hold up.

I think it much more likely that there will be an extended armed struggle (what most folks call a civil war) between Hamas and Fatah. I find it hard to believe that Fatah's good old boys will jump off their gravy train unless they are pushed.

The likely result of such a fight would be a series of zones controlled by warlords. perhaps most of Gaza would be given over to Hamas, but Fatah may dominate in the West Bank. Eventually, but not too soon, the Israelis, Egyptians and Jordanians will pick up the pieces, if only to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Egypt will be awarded a protectorate over Gaza. Jordan will incorporate most of the West Bank, and Israel will have lawful borders. The US and the EU will pay a boatload of aid and reconstruction money to make it happen. The Palestinians will get dropped into the trash can of history.

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