I published an article today, "A Decent Outcome Is Possible in Gaza" arguing that "upon seizing control of Gaza, Israel can reasonably expect to find plenty of residents ready to work with the new authority to create an administration that could return them to normal life."
The following entries provide further information pertinent to this prospect.
(1) A June 2023 poll commissioned by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy asked "How do Palestinians—the people themselves, not their leaders—see the potential of Saudi normalization" with Israel? It found that,
on this question—as with many others—attitudes sharply diverge between the West Bank and Gaza. Two-thirds of West Bank residents reject this proposal to normalize ties in the face of a Saudi-Israeli deal. But turn instead to Gaza, and attitudes are split: 50% of Gazans would support normalizing relations with Israel were Riyadh to do so. Strikingly, 21% of Gazans agree strongly with this idea—statistically equivalent to the 23% of Gazans who strongly disagree.
Asked about the impact on the region of the Abraham Accords, 47 percent of Gazans say they have had at least a somewhat positive impact. Asked if they agree with the statement, "I hope someday we can be friends with Israelis, since we are all human beings after all," 42 percent of Gazans assented.
Three-quarters of Gazans support Arab governments taking "a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering incentives to both sides to take more moderate positions." As for Jerusalem, 73 percent of Gazans say Saudi Arabia should have some role in the city's future.
Half of Gazans agree that Hamas should "stop calling for the destruction of Israel and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders." Asked if they support a resumption of negotiations with Israel, 58 percent indicated they did.
(2) Private information indicates that the Israelis are thinking along the lines I sketched out above. Publicly, however, they are signaling the opposite. Thus, Gilad Erdan, Israel's UN ambassador, said "We're not thinking now what will happen the day after the war. ...We need to win this war and that's the only thing we're focused on."
(3) Joe Biden has correctly observed that "A significant portion of Palestinian people do not share the views of Hamas."
(4) This may come as a surprise, but the Oslo Accords offer a basis for renewal in Gaza. Days after the accords were signed, the Multilateral Steering Group of the multilateral talks on Middle East peace established the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) as the principal coordination mechanism on policy and political matters related to economic development in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The AHLC subsequently established the Local Aid Coordination Committee (LACC) to devolve the donor coordination process.
The LACC in turn established twelve sub-committees, known as Sector Working Groups to cover agriculture, education, employment creation, environment, health, infrastructure and housing, institution-building, police, private sector, public finance, tourism, and transport and telecommunications. Israel can now revive a version of those Sector Working Groups. (October 17, 2023)
Oct. 18, 2023 update: Shirit Avitan Cohen writes in Israel Hayom that during a War Cabinet meeting, "the ministers decided not to address the question of what would happen next: Who will rule the Gaza Strip; what will this look like; and what Israel's role will be in that constellation."
Oct. 20, 2023 update: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced the post-Hamas "creation of a new security regime in the Gaza Strip, the removal of Israel's responsibility for day-to-day life in the Gaza Strip, and the creation of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel and the residents of the [area surrounding Gaza]." Excellent news.
Oct. 23, 2023 update: In a powerful analysis, Robert Satloff writes:
As an inveterate optimist, I hope that out of this crisis comes opportunity. Perhaps this opportunity is eventually to make in Gaza a reasonably well-functioning administration that puts first the needs of its citizens, and not the ideology of its rulers.
Sadly, his next sentence undermines this hope: "Maybe this is to repair the dysfunctional Palestinian Authority, so that it can one day assume its rightful responsibility as ruler of Gaza and peace partner with Israel."
Oct. 25, 2023 update: (1) An Arab Barometer survey of Gazans completed just before Oct. 7 finds that
rather than supporting Hamas, the vast majority of Gazans have been frustrated with the armed group's ineffective governance as they endure extreme economic hardship. Most Gazans do not align themselves with Hamas's ideology, either. Unlike Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the Israeli state, the majority of survey respondents favored a two-state solution with an independent Palestine and Israel existing side by side.
67 percent of Gazans do not trust Hamas versus 29 percent who do trust it, or more than 2-to1 negative. |
An article in Foreign Affairs further elaborates:
a plurality of survey respondents (31 percent) identified government mismanagement as the primary cause of food insecurity in Gaza and 26 percent blamed inflation. Only 16 percent blamed externally imposed economic sanctions. In short, Gazans were more likely to blame their material predicament on Hamas's leadership than on Israel's economic blockade. ...
Overall, 73 percent of Gazans favored a peaceful settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the eve of Hamas's October 7 attack, just 20 percent of Gazans favored a military solution that could result in the destruction of the state of Israel.
(2) Jonathan Rynhold and Toby Greene want to bring the Palestinian Authority into Gaza - a horrible idea - but they have good, practical ideas of working with Gazans going forward: "Israel must plan now how it can incorporate elements of the existing bureaucracy into a stable post-Hamas political order."
(3) Lewis Libby and Douglas J. Feith have the right idea:
there are surely ... Gazans who oppose Hamas tyranny, regretting the 15 years of waste and oppression Hamas has inflicted on Gaza and hoping to build better lives. Many presumably want to live peacefully beside Israel and are horrified that in their name Hamas murders, rapes, and kidnaps Israeli civilians, drawing IDF fire upon their homes. ... For them, the coming months will surely bring suffering, but will also present an opportunity. ...
Seldom in history has an oppressed people had such strong prospects of outside help as the Gazans have. Americans, Europeans, and others would eagerly assist 2 million Gazans who take a stand for a new, honest government that respects its people and favors peace through mutual compromise with Israel. Israel would help, too.
Oct. 27, 2023 update: Natan Sharansky: Israel's security can be assured only by a free Palestinian society, in which people "enjoy a normal life, normal freedom, the opportunity to vote and have their own human rights." But his plan is unrealistic: "An international body - comprised, preferably, of Saudis and Emiratis ('all those rich countries who recognize our right to exist) - would have to help the Palestinians build "an independent economy, a normal education, normal housing, a civil society."
Nov. 1, 2023 update: And now, for a completely original idea.
Nov. 2, 2023 update: (1) H, a former resident of the Shejaiya neighborhood in Gaza City, now in exile: When Gazans saw what Yahya Sinwar did on Oct. 7, "they were surprised and afterward they began to say he was a fool and a madman. People are very tired of war. It's enough – how much more? Enough. We know that Hamas started this war, what [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar did was suicidal."
(2) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin endorsed something potentially along the lines of what I proposed: "We can't have a reversion to the status quo, with Hamas running Gaza. We also can't have ... Israel running or controlling Gaza. ... In between those ... are a variety of possible permutations that we're looking at very closely now."
(3) Joseph Braude reports on the "Voices of Gaza" project of the Center for Peace Communications. Select quotes from Gazans:
- "When Hamas distributes the aid, only Hamas members get the aid." The same applies to Gaza's healthcare system, where "Hamas families get preferential treatment" and even the most urgent needs of others "could be delayed for a long time so that Hamas loyalists are treated first."
- "Hamas bears responsibility for all the wars, but we're the ones who pay the price."
- "Ending Hamas is the demand of young and old alike in Gaza."
- "We welcome any change that will save us from this indignation called Hamas."
Braude concludes: "In drawing attention to Gazan voices opposed to Hamas, we aim to show that a different, brighter, and more peaceful future is possible—one that merits international support—because of the Palestinians in Gaza who yearn and strive for it. As one of the speakers, who you can hear below, in our original series put it, "The makings of our dream are all here."
Nov. 3, 2023 update: (1) Gershon Baskin, a far-left Israeli with many connections in Gaza: "Had Palestinian elections been held prior to October 7, it is highly doubtful that Hamas would have gained more than 30% of the vote – even less in Gaza than in the West Bank because in Gaza they have experienced 17 years of Hamas rule."
(2) Amaney Jamal, Princeton University: In Gaza, about 67 percent have little or no trust in Hamas. If presidential elections were held today only about a quarter said that they would vote for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas.
Nov. 5, 2023 update: During a live Al Jazeera interview in Gaza, an unnamed, elderly, wounded Gazan is asked by a reporter if the Israeli bombing surprised him:
Yes. It was not one house that was bombed. An entire compound was erased. Over 15 or 20 houses. Is this a humane act? No, this is a criminal act. As for the Resistance [i.e., Hamas] – they come and hide among the people. Why are they hiding among the people? They can go to hell and hide there.
Nov. 6, 2023 update: An unnamed Israeli official said in a Hebrew-language briefing with Israeli reporters at the military headquarters in Tel Aviv: "I don't see any situation in which Israel doesn't have ultimate security responsibility in Gaza." He added that after Hamas is toppled, "it won't be enough to do just a rehabilitation of Gaza. It must go through a process of de-Nazification."
Nov. 7, 2023 update: Benjamin Netanyahu: "Israel for an indefinite period will have the overall security responsibility."
Nov. 8, 2023 update: (1) According to the Wall Street Journal, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi rejected a U.S. proposal that his government "manage security in the Gaza Strip until the Palestinian Authority can take over after Hamas's defeat." So, scratch that idea.
(2) UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly: "As soon as practicable, a move towards a peace-loving Palestinian leadership is the most desired outcome" in Gaza.
(3) Benny Gantz suggested the Government of Israel has no idea what comes next: "Once the Gaza area is safe, and the northern area will be safe, and the Judea and Samaria region [West Bank] will calm down, we will sit down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza. I do not know what it will be."
Nov. 10, 2023 update: Prime Minister Netanyahu offered the outline of his plans:
What we have to see is Gaza demilitarized, deradicalized and rebuilt. All of that can be achieved. We don't seek to conquer Gaza. We don't seek to occupy Gaza. And we don't seek to govern Gaza. In the foreseeable future... We have to have a credible force that, if necessary, will enter Gaza and kill the killers. That's what will prevent the emergence of another Hamas-like entity.
Nov. 11, 2023 update: (1) Netanyahu specifies a bit more: " "Gaza will be demilitarized, and there will be no threat to the state of Israel. The IDF will continue to maintain security control in the Gaza Strip to prevent terrorism."
(2) A pro-Hamas reporter asks a young girl in Gaza about the "resistance" and gets a surprise reply: "Hamas is putting the people of Gaza in danger. Its fighters are hiding in the tunnels, while Gazan civilians are the victims."
Nov. 12, 2023 update: (1) Reports from Gaza indicate that resentment against Hamas is growing:
Across Gaza, rare scenes of dissent are playing out. Some Palestinians are openly challenging the authority of Hamas, which long has ruled the enclave with an iron fist, in scenes unimaginable just a month ago. Four Palestinians across Gaza spoke to AP on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals about what they've seen.
A man who was told off by a Hamas officer for cutting the bread line took a chair and smashed it over his head, according to an aid worker in line. In another area, angry crowds hurled stones at Hamas police who cut in front of a water line and beat them with their fists until they scattered, according to a journalist there.
Over the past few nights in Gaza City, Hamas rockets streaming overhead toward Israel have prompted outbursts of rage from a UN shelter. In the middle of the night, hundreds of people shouted insults against Hamas and cried out that they wanted the war to end, according to a 28-year-old sleeping in a tent there with his family.
And during a televised press conference Tuesday, a young man with a dazed expression and bandaged wrist pushed his way through the crowd, disrupting a speech by Iyad Bozum, spokesman for the Hamas-run Interior Ministry. "May God hold you to account, Hamas!" the man yelled, shaking his wounded hand.
(2) Shaul Bartal of the BESA Center foresees two stages after Israeli forces seize Gaza: First, "the establishment of a full Israeli military government over the entire Gaza Strip ... a temporary government aimed at ensuring peace and security until a regional solution receives international support."
The second stage, following the establishment of the military government, is for Israel to seek the integration of local and regional forces, including military forces, into the newly formed government. This would mainly include local Palestinian elements, Egyptians, and additional regional countries with an interest in maintaining security stability in the region.
Nov. 14, 2023 update: From Aimen Dean:
Al-Jazeera TV was asking this poor wounded old Palestinian man to give his eyewitness testimony; he said: what's happening is criminal! Why is the resistance (Hamas) hiding among us? Why don't they go to hell and hide there? They are not resistance!!
The journalist cut him off!
Al-Jazeera TV was asking this poor wounded old Palestinian man to give his eyewitness testimony; he said: what's happening is criminal! Why is the resistance (Hamas) hiding among us? Why don't they go to hell and hide there? They are not resistance!!
The journalist cut him off! pic.twitter.com/evrVfpCfj5
— Aimen Dean (@AimenDean) November 14, 2023
Nov. 16, 2023 update: Israel's President Isaac Herzog: "If we pull back, then who will take over? We can't leave a vacuum. We have to think about what will be the mechanism; there are many ideas that are thrown in the air."
Nov. 17, 2023 update: (1) Benjamin Netanyahu on Israel's goals in Gaza: "Destroying Hamas, returning our hostages, and assuring a different future in Gaza, different from the one that we had before."
(2) Jason D. Hill, professor of philosophy at DePaul University: "We may have to think of the future of Gaza in terms of temporary or permanent trusteeship, military occupation, annexation, or rehabilitative colonization."
Nov. 19, 2023 update: (1) Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe columnist: "A new Israeli administration in the territory, explicitly committed to nourishing a healthy civil society, is the best option for paving a path to effective and peaceful self-rule. Countless Palestinians, chafing under Hamas autocracy in Gaza, have long yearned for a better and freer life. Now there is a chance for them to achieve it. Once Israel has won its war, they and their Palestinian neighbors together can win the peace."
(2) Khalil Shikaki, head of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research: "Israel will find essentially no one willing to step in to replace the Israeli army, including the Palestinian Authority. In the short term ... Israel will have no choice but to run the affairs of 2.2 million Palestinians living in Gaza. I can't see any other alternative."
(3) Henry Kopel, U.S. analyst, endorses "nation-building" in Gaza to build a "governance structure in Gaza that prioritizes the well-being of the territory's civilians."
(4) In a typical article of despair, the Economist asks "What happens to Gaza after the war?" and has absolutely no good ideas, predicting that Gaza will become "another of the Middle East's failed states, broken but never rebuilt."
Nov. 20, 2023 update: Ghadir Hani, a Muslim Israeli citizen:
I have many memories from my visits to the kibbutzim on the border, where together we planned initiatives with partners inside Gaza who, with great courage and great risk to their own lives, reached out to us to communicate their belief in peace. They told me how hard life was in Gaza, in a prison surrounded by fences. Hamas's cruel hold has oppressed anyone who dares to believe in a different future for [Gazans].
Nov. 22, 2023 update: Mark Regev, senior adviser to the prime minister: "Israel has no desire to occupy or rule Gaza but Gaza must be in peace with its neighbours and run by a Palestinian government that will work for the welfare of all the people of Gaza."
Nov. 24, 2023 update: A poll commissioned by The Jewish People Policy Institute on November 15-18 finds 21 percent of Israelis endorsing a Palestinian government in Gaza that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.
Nov. 25, 2023 update: Baruch Yedid writes at "Arab Countries Seek Post-War Gaza That is 'Neither Abbas Nor Hamas'" that Arab leaders
are promoting a plan for post-war Gaza ruled by "neither Abbas nor Hamas," which is being welcomed in Washington, the Tazpit Press Service has learned.
In talks hosted by Qatar and elsewhere, senior Arab officials are promoting the goal of establishing a new Palestinian body to rule the Gaza Strip, ruling out a return of the Mahmoud Abbas-led Palestinian Authority.
These countries are pressuring Hamas to clear the way to allow the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip while explicitly threatening that under Hamas the countries will refrain from any involvement and assistance in the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.
"One dollar will not flow as long as you control the Gaza Strip, the leadership of Hamas was told," an Arab source told the TPS, adding that the Arab countries are equally pressuring Abbas to vacate his place to allow the establishment of a new Palestinian body, which will take over the responsibility for the management of the Gaza Strip.
The new Palestinian body would be tasked with rebuilding Gaza under the auspices of significant economic aid from the Arab and Gulf countries, with Qatar playing a possible leading role.
Dec. 2, 2023 update: Al-Jazeera's man-in-the-street interview went awry when the man replied to a question about massacres with "There is a massacre of civilians, these are children. They are all little children. May Allah settle the score with Qatar and Turkey ..." at which point the reporter took the microphone back and pushed the man away, even as the man continued to talk.
Dec. 6, 2023 update: (1) Israel's Channel 12 reports about Gazans increasingly expressing anger at Hamas. As summarized by the Times of Israel:
The Tuesday [Dec. 5] report showed footage of clashes between Hamas operatives and civilians over supplies, with the civilians yelling expletives at the gunmen. Arab affairs reporter Ehud Yaari noted that such scenes have become increasingly common.
The network also cited conversations with Gazans inside the Strip who said residents "are praying that Israel will destroy Hamas and are saying it out loud." Reporter Ohad Hemo said that among those evacuated to Rafah in the Strip's south, the greeting "May God take revenge upon Hamas" has become common.
The reporters stressed, however, that these negative sentiments have not translated into action.
(2) Al-Jazeera interviewed an elderly Palestinian woman standing outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis in a live broadcast today:
Interviewer: "You know that all the people here cannot find anything to eat or drink?"
Woman: "Yes, everybody is suffering."
Interviewer: "The situation is difficult. No aid is coming in."
Woman: "All the aid goes to the [tunnels] underground. It does not reach all the people. ... We came here from Gaza City. All the aid is meant for us. I am not afraid [of Hamas]. I am talking to them as well. All the aid reaches the Gaza Strip, and ..."
Interviewer: "A lot of aid is coming. It is being distributed. This is what they say."
Woman: "Hamas takes everything to their homes. They can take me, shoot me, or do whatever they want to me."
Dec. 9, 2023 update: An anonymous article in the Daily Beast, "Robbed, Silenced, and Betrayed: Why Gazans Turned Away From Hamas" starts this way:
It is incredibly difficult for them to say so in public, but many Palestinians in Gaza are furious with Hamas, their de facto rulers who invited a brutal Israeli backlash by launching the Oct. 7 attacks.
The Daily Beast was told to stop reporting and forced to delete videos while working on this story, but we can report that residents of Gaza say they have been robbed, silenced, and betrayed by Hamas.
After telling about a sneaky way Hamas stole gold jewelry and mobile telephones, the story contains these quotes:
Hasan Ahmed, 39: "There is no democracy in Gaza when you want to speak against Hamas or its de facto government. We fear they will arrest us during the war, or after the war if we spoke against them. They can easily kill us even, and tell the world we are spies."
Salam Tareq, 33: "Thieves are spreading in our area. They are going to the evacuated houses, even the partially destroyed ones, and they steal everything possible. Canned food, wheat packages, gas cylinders, solar energy panels to sell in the market. ... Even inside Gaza City, thieves are using knives to threaten those who come back to their cars and take their food by force. One of our neighbors was stabbed by one of the street thieves."
Um Ahmed, 55: "Hamas has lost support in Gaza."
Dec. 10, 2023 update: Yousef al-Mansi, a former "communications minister" for Hamas surrendered and criticized the Hamas leadership, especially Yahya Sinwar, in a video of his interrogation published by the Israeli government today. Excerpts:
They destroyed the Gaza Strip. Set it back 200 years. There is no opportunity to live. ... People in the Gaza Strip say that Sinwar and his group destroyed us, we must get rid of them. ... I have not seen anyone in the Gaza Strip who supports Sinwar; nobody likes Sinwar. There are people who, day and night, pray that God will free us from him.
Sinwar has "delusions of grandeur" and "feels like he is above everyone else. Acts only as he thinks. He makes decisions without consulting anyone."
Mansi called the Oct. 7 massacre "the opposite of Islam":
This is heresy, madness. What they did is unacceptable according to logic, religion, or intellect. Those who are responsible for this are Sinwar and his group. ... The achievement of Hamas is killing and the destruction of more than 60 percent of buildings, infrastructure, streets, and public facilities [in the Gaza Strip.
As a result of the fighting, "over 90 percent, 95 percent" of Hamas's Al-Qassam Brigades, its military force, had been decimated, concluding, "Al-Qassam is finished."
Dec. 12, 2023 updates: (1) Muhammad Mansour, a Gazan interviewed on Hebron radio:
I want to convey my message to the Hamas government. May God take revenge on you [and] curse your forefathers. ... May God curse you, O [Yahya] Sinwar, you son of a dog. May God take revenge on you, you've destroyed us. ... We migrated from Gaza [City] to Khan Yunis, and from Khan Yunis to Rafah. We were scattered, us and our family, our wives, our children. Give the [Israeli] prisoners [back to Israel], these dogs who are in your possession. ... Sinwar is underground, hiding together with [Muhammad] Deif and all the disgusting ones like him.
(2) Baruch Yedid writes in TPS about "Anarchy in Gaza as Palestinian Fear of Hamas Breaks Down":
[Gazans] openly criticize Hamas in front of TV cameras — once unthinkable — can call the Iran-backed Hamas "betrayers of the Palestinian people." In one notable incident, a resident of Gaza told Radio Hebron, which also broadcasts from the Strip, that "Mohammed Deif and Yahya Sinwar are sons of dogs."
Dec. 13, 2023 update: According to a Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll released today, "In the Gaza Strip, support for Hamas today stands at 42% (compared to 38% three months ago)." I.e., most Gazans don't want to be ruled by Hamas.
Dec. 16, 2023 update: MEF's Benjamin Weinthal writes at Fox News Digital about the "Young generation of anti-Hamas activists in Gaza step up to serve but are snubbed by UN, aid groups."
Speaking with Fox News Digital from within the war zone in Gaza, Moumen Al-Natour, 28, said he "advocates peace and for the establishment of a Palestinian state" that coexists with the Jewish state as part of a two-state solution.
The Hamas regime has imprisoned Al-Natour twenty times, including incarceration for "expressing my opinion and trying to organize additional protests." ...
Al-Natour stressed that, in a postwar Gaza, it is important that "those who suffered for 17 years are the ones who should be leading ... for the future of Gaza. We represent the youth and the disenfranchised. We do not need donors to govern us.
Joseph Braude of the Center for Peace Communications comments that "Moumen Al-Natour combines a history of bold anti-Hamas activism with a commitment to forging civil society. When the fighting stops, the success of any post-Hamas administration will depend on whether it attracts Gazans like Moumen to step up and play a role." Braude goes on to assess the situation in Gaza more broadly:
Support for acceptance of Israel has generally been a minority view in Gaza, and most Gazans support the ideal of "resistance." But a substantial majority oppose Hamas' brand of resistance — that is, starting wars it can't win while hiding in bunkers and leaving civilians to suffer the consequences.
Meanwhile, a large number of Gazans, while opposed to Israel, adopt a pragmatic outlook on cooperation if it delivers tangible benefit to them. These pragmatists, combined with the minority who believe in coexistence as a principle, constitute a solid base of support for any post-Hamas administration committed to reconstruction.
Dec. 18, 2023 update: MEMRI has collected many voices at "Growing Criticism of Hamas and Its Officials by Gaza Residents: They Brought a Needless War Upon Us; Our Lives Are Worthless in Their Eyes; We Yearn to See the End of Hamas."
The article's first footnote lists pre-Oct. 7 MEMRI publications "complaining of its ineffectual, corrupt and tyrannical rule and of the disconnect between the people of Gaza and the Hamas leaders abroad, who live in luxury and care nothing for the lives of the Gazans."
- Saudi News Website: Hamas Leader Isma'il Haniya's Sons Are Corrupt, Have Extravagant And Hedonistic Lifestyles, January 17, 2023;
- Gaza Journalist: Hamas, Islamic Jihad Officials Voice Belligerent Slogans, Ignoring Gazans' Difficult Circumstances, And Seek To Advance Their Own Personal Interests, December 7, 2021;
- Economic, Social Protests Against Hamas Flare Up Again In Gaza: 'We Want To Live'; The Economic Hardship Has Become Intolerable; Hamas Officials Are Out Of Touch With The People, November 15, 2021;
- Munitions Cache Explosion At Gaza Market Sparks Renewed Internal Criticism Of Hamas' 'Contempt For Human Life', August 26, 2021;
- Hamas Members, Supporters Criticize Its Suppression Of Economic And Social Protests In Gaza, March 26, 2019.
Dec. 20, 2023 update: Writing for an Arabic-speaking audience Israel's National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi announced:
Israel has no interest in controlling the civil affairs of the Gaza Strip. This will require a moderate Palestinian governing body that enjoys broad popular support and legitimacy. It is not for us to determine who will this body be.
Dec. 21, 2023 update: "Gazans Are Starting to Blame Hamas for Wartime Suffering" runs the Wall Street Journal headline. Excerpts from the article by Margherita Stancati and Abeer Ayyoub:
quiet criticism has begun spreading against the militant group, with Gazans blaming the militants for having provoked Israel's wrath and for their inability to shield the population from a devastating war and a humanitarian crisis that deepens by the day.
"People are dying every minute," said a 56-year-old businessman from Gaza. "Hamas is the one that dragged us into this terrible vortex." ...
"On the first day, people were happy. But as Israel started pounding Gaza, destroying infrastructure and killing civilians, things started to change," said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Gaza's Al-Azhar University. "There is a lot of criticism among Palestinians that the Oct. 7 attack—the killing of Israeli civilians, women and children—was a strategic mistake that provoked Israel into the current war."
"Damn Hamas," said a hairdresser originally from Gaza City who is now sheltering in Rafah, near the Egyptian border. "May God be my witness: If I see Ismail Haniyeh, I will hit him with my slippers," she said, referring to Hamas's political leader. ... Like many Gazans, she said she worries she may never be able to return home. "Next week, we may end up in Sinai," the desert region across the Egyptian border, she said. "What for? What did the resistance do for us?" ...
In private, locals say, the group is often harshly criticized. And now, some public signs of discontent are beginning to appear.
The spokesman for Hamas's Interior Ministry was speaking on live TV in Gaza City last month when a passerby walked into the frame. "I complain about you to God, Hamas," he said, waving his bandaged hand in the air.
The clip was widely shared by Gazans on social media, prompting Hamas authorities to issue a public statement: "We warn against publishing any pictures, videos or materials that are offensive to the image of the steadfastness and unity of our people in Gaza." ...
Hamas is "in a war, they are fighting back and defending themselves," said Abusada, the political scientist, who left Gaza for Cairo last month. "But once the war is over, you will hear more and more criticism against Hamas."
Dec. 23, 2023 update: Ariel Kahana compares Gaza to Germany in 1945 and concludes that,
As long as Hamas does not surrender, there is nothing to talk about regarding the rehabilitation of the strip. This is contrary to Israel's intention, as expressed this week by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is under American pressure, to return Gazans to their homes in the northern strip. If rehabilitation begins before Hamas disappears, the Gazans' state of mind will have not been seared with their responsibility for the horrors. From a military point of view, there is also the question of why rebuild a neighborhood if two minutes later Hamas will take control of it again.
Dec. 24, 2023 update: After a Hamas gunmen shot and killed Ahmed Barika approaching a truck that dispensed aid in southern Gaza, his family cursed Hamas, set tires and a Hamas police station on fire, and vowed to avenge his death. A relative called on Hamas "to take responsibility for its actions. They told us to guard the deliveries and the aid, but today they shot at us and at members of my family." Presumably, the shooting took place because Hamas keeps aid deliveries for its own personnel.
Dec. 25, 2023 update: Benjamin Netanyahu writes that "Once Hamas is destroyed, Gaza is demilitarized and Palestinian society begins a deradicalization process, Gaza can be rebuilt and the prospects of a broader peace in the Middle East will become a reality."
Dec. 26, 2023 updates: (1) IDF Military Intelligence Directorate's Unit 504 specializes in human intelligence. It has held 50,066 telephone conversations with Gazans urging civilians to evacuate combat areas. Along the way, it gains intelligence about Hamas and on opinions on Hamas. Some examples, as reported by the Times of Israel:
A Unit 504 soldier tells a Gazan to evacuate immediately, then asks whether the man had seen Hamas gunmen. The Gazan replied that he had not and cursed the terror group. "The problem is that we're dying, and they're saving themselves, [even though] we haven't even seen their faces."He went on to say it is not safe in Gaza to publicly criticize Hamas. "If you think someone can say something against Hamas and then go out in the street afterward - they will destroy him. You don't understand what it's like in Gaza. They do whatever they want."
In another call recalled by a Unit 504 officer, a Palestinian relayed that Hamas was trying to use homes in his neighborhood to establish a line of defense against the IDF, but that the locals had chased the fighters away.
One Palestinian who had emigrated from Gaza to Europe called Unit 504 to offer information on Hamas. "Many others want something in return, but this man [in Europe] did it because he just hates Hamas," an officer said. "From this, you understand that something has changed over there." ...
[One the Unit 504 member] believes many in Gaza did not agree with the massacres carried out by Hamas on October 7 — that these murders had crossed a line for them and were not representative of what those in the enclave support. ...
In another call aired by the network, a Palestinian named Munir confirmed months of reports that Hamas is stealing humanitarian aid, but went further to say that the terror group actually controls UNRWA. "Wherever Hamas is located, they destroy everything. Hamas places its hand on everything. It has placed its hand on the UNRWA staff. Hamas are the senior leadership of UNRWA, and they're also in charge of the humanitarian organizations. Since the day [Hamas] took over control of Gaza, they've gained control over everything. The UNRWA staff are Hamas."
(2) An impassioned young Gazan man skewers Hamas on a video for its neglect of the interests of Gaza's population in a video made available by the Center for Peace Communications.
"I am a Palestinian from Gaza, and I want to hold people to account. I am genuinely curious to know who would stand in my way."
More and more Gazan civilians are standing up to Hamas.
Watch: pic.twitter.com/gMRU3Y01Gs
— Center for Peace Communications (@PeaceComCenter) December 26, 2023
Dec. 29, 2023 update: An Egyptian proposal to end the fighting in Gaza suggests that a "technocratic government" rule in both the West Bank and Gaza. Comment: I can see adopting that term for what I have in mind for Gaza.
Jan. 2, 2024 update: Simple but profound point from @96470burn on Twitter, not to be forgotten: "When Hamas is obliterated everyone in Gaza will become our best friends."
Jan. 3, 2024 update: The Times of Israel reports that, as a temporary measure,
The Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service want to divide Gaza into regions and sub-regions, with civil administration and the distribution of humanitarian aid in each area entrusted to a local clan, the Kan public broadcaster reported Monday. Only clans that are familiar to Israeli security officials will be entrusted to manage the aid that will enter the war-torn Strip from Egypt and Israel, the report said.
Jan. 4, 2024 updates: (1) Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has outlined "the day after" in Gaza that features a "Palestinian government that is not hostile to Israel. ... there will be local committees that are not hostile to Israel, and will not be able to act against it."
In a second description of the plan, which was leaked from a closed meeting, "Gazans who do not have ties to Hamas ... would handle civilian affairs in the enclave."
A third description goes thus:
"Hamas will no longer rule Gaza, and Israel will not rule Gaza on a civilian level," Gallant declared in the preamble. According to the plan, the local administration of the Palestinians will rely on the capacities of the existing administrative mechanism in Strip, and on local committees composed of Gazans whose appointment must be approved by Israel.
Unfortunately, Gallant sees this as only a first stage, to be followed by what Arutz Sheva characterizes as "a multinational task force of moderate Arab countries, the US and Europe would take responsibility for the economic and physical restoration of the Strip." Yes more unfortunately, "Gallant reportedly does not rule out the possibility of allowing the PA a role if it moderates its positions."
Comment: Good to see that the Government of Israel is looking to decent Gazans; but why then push them aside?
(2) Mordechai Kedar of Bar-Ilan University agrees with turning to Gazans, and their clans in particular, to run Gaza:
Creating entities based on families, extended families, or clans, is the only thing which works in the Middle East. You can compare the Emirates, which are based on clans, which are successful countries, versus the failing states in the Middle East, which are Syria and Iraq and Lebanon, and Sudan and Libya, who are all based on multiple group-countries, which is a failure in the Middle East. Only homogenous can run a normal state, and this is why the clan, one clan for a state, is the best way to establish a state in the Middle East.
A state based on a clan, usually, in the Middle East, tries to take care of its stability and prosperity and success in everything. They don't look for enemies. Only countries which are based on multiple groups like Syria, they need an external enemy like Israel in order to galvanize all the groups into one nation which factually doesn't exist. And this is why when you establish a state on a clan, it has the greatest chance this clan and state will be rather peaceful.
(3) Hamas kidnapped Mohammed Mushtaha, a dissident imam in Gaza; his son Ala recounts the circumstances at "Hamas Kidnapped My Father for Refusing to Be Their Puppet."
Jan. 9, 2024 updates: (1) Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state: "Israel must be a partner of the Palestinian leaders who are willing to lead their people and living side by side in peace with Israel."
(2) Meir Ben Shabbat: "With an extremely high percentage of support for Hamas, as long as a strong, organized, and armed core of the terrorist organization manages to remain in the Gaza Strip, it will clearly continue to be the dominant power in the Gaza Strip, whatever the identity and definition of the entity that is officially charged with running civil affairs there."
(3) The Center for Peace Communications notes that the United Arab Emirates engaged in "a decade-long campaign to erode local Muslim Brotherhood influence" that could provide a model for Gaza:
It began with a quiet purge of Brotherhood-affiliated preachers, teachers, and media workers. In 2003, 170 Brotherhood members were reassigned from the education ministry, marking the start of a reshuffling that saw Islamist ideologues replaced at the helm by a cadre of more liberally-minded educators. As in any society, most of the workforce went along with the new top-down effort, which extended beyond schools — it also included purging and restructuring the country's media and mosques.
The UAE and Gaza of course differ in countless ways, but one aspect of the Emirati experience bears adopting in any de-radicalization effort: Quite simply, the government had mapped each institution for its Brotherhood stalwarts and their opponents, and developed a long-term plan to strengthen the latter.
CPC's daily engagement with civilians across Gaza points to a critical mass of educators, intellectuals, and activists who oppose Hamas and support systemic change and development. Over the past two years, we've mapped their affiliations and gauged their aspirations. The possibility of a brighter future for Gaza hinges on a smart plan to empower these and other Gazans who share the will to reach for it.
Jan. 14, 2024 update: Glen Segell thinks through "the day after" in Gaza:
The challenge is the next steps within Gaza for the management of daily functions. One option I can suggest is for educated and competent Palestinians, by establishing local committees or councils, to assume management of utilities such as water, electricity, education, and health together with the IDF. That could eventually build within years or decades to municipal-wide management capability. Hamas never undertook this step in the 16 years it was in control of Gaza. ...
The quicker Palestinians show initiative to recognize Israel, renounce violence and lay down weapons, and raise the flag of leadership will be the quicker that they have an independent state in Gaza and the West Bank.
Jan. 15, 2024 update: Israel's Channel 13 reports that Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi warned the political leadership that in needs to make a plan for "the day after." It quotes him stating
We are seeing our achievements so far worn down because there is no strategy for the future. It is likely that we will need to return to operations in areas where we had already finished fighting.
Meanwhile, another security official added:
We are worried that Hamas will reorganize in northern Gaza. We need to create the situation we want as our end result. Our current achievements are being worn down. We need a civilian solution.
The report comments that Netanyahu's reluctance to make such plans stems in part from his worry that disagreements within his governing coalition will lead to a political crisis.
Jan. 17, 2024 update: Hamas released Mohammed Mushtaha; on him, see above, Jan. 4.
Jan. 21, 2024 update: And now, for an opposing point of view, provided by Rabbi Steven Pruzansky: "That the world assumes that "Gazans" should and will control Gaza on the day after makes a mockery of our suffering and sacrifices."
Jan. 23, 2024 update: Hamza Howidy identifies as a Palestinian from Gaza City, an accountant, and a peace advocate. He writes in "My Fellow Gazans: We Must Demand the Release of the Israeli Hostages" how
I used to believe Hamas was a ticking time bomb, which gave me the courage to stand up to them. I organized protests against Hamas. But received no international support, despite asking for it, when we spoke out against Hamas in 2019 and 2023. We felt betrayed and utterly alone while fighting for our freedom—then coming home and turning on the television only to find that Arabic media was more interested in the weather than our fight for freedom. Had we been supported, had Hamas been disposed of, it would have prevented the October 7 attacks and all the innocent Palestinians killed when Hamas now uses them as human shields.
Jan. 24, 2024 update: MEMRI reports that the posting of "videos of displaced Gaza residents demonstrating against Hamas ... near the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Hospital in Deir Al-Balah."
Signs: "Yes to handing over the hostages."
Protesters: "The people want to end the war! The people want to end the war! We put our trust in Alah, he is our best supporter! We put our trust in Alah, he is our best supporter! We don't want [food] coupons! We don't want coupons! We want to live! We want to live!"
Woman: "We are living in tents. We are drowning. We are dying. We want to go back to our homes! Stop it! Enough! Someone should care for us. The people are the victims... We, the people, are the victims. They [in Hamas] are just asleep and know nothing about us. The war is against the people, not against them. We want to go back home." ...
Protesters: "We want to go back home, to Beit Lahia! We want to go back home, to Al-Shati! We want to go back home, to Jabalia! Leave us alone! Leave us alone!"
Avichay Adraee, the IDF's Arabic-language spokesman, tweeted footage of this protest, adding:
Hamas-ISIS leaders, led by Sinwar, listen to the cries of your people - your children, your women - who are expressing their outrage over the situation you have caused Gaza. They demand that you return the Israeli hostages home, so that the war will end and they can return home. Do these cries and demands reach the hiding places of the Hamas leaders?"
Jan. 28, 2024 update: Israel's Ministry of Defense posted a video of hundreds of Gazans evacuated from the north to the south of Gaza chanting "Down with Hamas" yesterday, a sign of Hamas losing control who is it.
Exclusive footage: Myriads of Gazans evacuate to a secure humanitarian area, chanting "Down with Hamas." The video was captured in the new passage in western Khan Younis, enabling Gaza residents to access the Al-Muwasi humanitarian area. pic.twitter.com/oTCeD76gnn
— COGAT (@cogatonline) January 27, 2024
Maj.-Gen. Rasan Aliyan of the office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories,
In recent days, we have been seeing more and more evidence of public criticism voiced by the residents of Gaza against the Hamas terrorist organization. The residents of the Gaza Strip rightly prefer their own well-being and the safety of their children to the continued strengthening of Hamas militants and the terrorist activities that harm them and their future.
Israel Hayom reports similar incidents in recent days.
On Wednesday, protesting Palestinians in Deir al-Balah—including numerous children—called on the terror group to release Israeli hostages and end the war so they can return to their homes in northern Gaza.
Outside Deir al-Balah's Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, the children held white pieces of paper saying, "Yes to giving back the prisoners" and expressing wishes to return to homes in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip.
That protest came one day after another small demonstration against Hamas in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Videos circulating on social media featured Palestinians cursing Hamas and Gaza strongman Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the Oct. 7 massacre.
It also reports that Hamas "has reportedly deployed security personnel to refugee centers, schools and other locations in recent days to prevent similar protests."
Jan. 31, 2024 update: The Wall Street Journal reports that
Israel's military believes the war effort in Gaza urgently needs a civil authority to deliver humanitarian aid, restore order and basic services, and manage nearly two million displaced residents, according to Israeli officials. ...
Israel's military has proposed working with civilians in Gaza who have good standing in their community and aren't affiliated with Hamas. Some government officials have also floated similar ideas. But other government members say suitable people can't be found. Some analysts warn that Hamas would try to assassinate Gazans who cooperate with Israel.
Feb. 1, 2024 update: MEMRI documents (confusingly, dated Feb. 1) videos of anti-Hamas protests in two places in Gaza (in Rafah, the Jabalya refugee camp, and Deir Al-Balah) uploaded on Feb. 1 and Feb. 21.
Crowd: "Sinwar, you are a collaborator! Sinwar, you are a collaborator! Sinwar, you are a traitor! Oh Sinwar, oh Haniyeh! The people are the victims! Down with Hamas! Down with Hamas! ... The people want a sack of flour! The people want a sack of flour! ... F*ck off, Sinwar! ... Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! The people want to live! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! Get out, Sinwar! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! The people want Gaza back! ...
Hear, oh [Osama] Hamdan! Hear, oh Hamdan! Come home from Lebanon! Come home from Lebanon! Hear, oh Hamdan! Hear, oh Hamdan! Come home from Lebanon! Come home from Lebanon! Hear, oh Hanniyeh! Hear, oh Hanniyeh! The people are the victims! The people are the victims! Say: 'Allah Akbar!' Allah Akbar! With our souls and our blood we will redeem you, oh Gaza! With our souls and our blood we will redeem you, oh Gaza! With our souls and our blood we will redeem you, oh Gaza!"
Protestor: "Man, half of us died from the rockets, the other half does not have to die of hunger. I do no not want hostages, I do not want war, or anything that Hamas does. We just want to live in peace, man. If [Hamas] likes that, fine, if not – then leave us alone! I say to Hamas today what Mahmoud Abbas said: 'Leave us alone!' [inaudible] All we want is to live. That's it. We want flour. Thank you! We want a sack of flour." ...
Crowd: "Sinwar, you ass! Sinwar, you ass! We want to return home! We want to return home! Haniyeh, you ass! Haniyeh, you ass! We want to return home! We want to return home! ... The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas! The people want to topple Hamas!"
Feb. 7, 2024 update: The anti-Hamas analyst from Gaza, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, writes that "It's Not Too Late to Give Gaza a Better Future. If the international community doesn't want to see Hamas return to power in Gaza, it must act immediately." He predicts that Hamas will be back:
As I speak with people on the ground in Gaza, I've noticed that people are already pulling back on overt criticism and condemnation of the Islamist group, because they see what's coming. Hamas appears certain to stay, and it will retaliate against any opposition to its repressive rule. Professionals who are involved in planning day-after scenarios for Gaza have started discussing "postwar plans" instead of "post-Hamas plans," signaling a shift in expectations.
If a cessation in the fighting is indeed imminent, then time has almost run out to deliver to Gazans a better future. As soon as a cease-fire begins, what's left of Hamas's fighters and personnel will emerge from the tunnels, put back on their military uniforms, and resume operations out in the open, especially in areas vacated by IDF ground units. But that isn't the only alternative.
His alternative? A police force under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority and the Office of the U.S. Security Coordinator for Israel. Alkhatib concludes that "With some courage, creativity, and assertive planning, we can still create a better future for Palestinians and Israelis alike."
Feb. 23, 2024 update: Khaled Abu Toameh adds more evidence of Gaza unhappiness with Hamas at "Palestinian Leaders Have Brought a Nakba to Their People."
Mar. 3, 2024 update: I today published "Netanyahu's Bold, Realistic Plan for 'the Day After Hamas'." It updates the Oct. 17 article that kicked off this blog and foreshadows a longer Spring 2024 article.
Mar. 4, 2024 update: Khaled Abu Toameh points to a problem:
The Palestinian Authority is exerting pressure on heads of clans in the Gaza Strip not to cooperate with the Israel Defense Forces, not even in the distribution of humanitarian aid, Palestinian sources said.
— Khaled Abu Toameh (@KhaledAbuToameh) March 4, 2024
Mar. 6, 2024 update: Khaled Abu Toameh has collected negative quotes about Hamas from West Bankers who worked in Israel before Oct. 7 but now are shut out due to the atrocity.
Mar. 7, 2024 update: MEMRI has collected a range of anti-Hamas sentiments from Gazans under the title "Growing Criticism Of Hamas And Its Leader Sinwar By Gazans: They Are Trading In Our Blood."
Mar. 8, 2024 update: (1) The security establishment is mulling the idea of hiring non-Hamas Gazans to secure the aid entering Gaza.
(2) Seth Frantzman assesses the pluses and minuses for Israel of working with clans in Gaza. Plus: They are "only powerful groups that might provide a shield against Hamas atrocities in the future are large clans, because even Hamas fears angering large families that have influence and power, and may have weapons as well." Minus:
tribes and clans are important, but they are not a substitute for a state or even state-like structures. They also do not weather the storm when push comes to shove. They tend to thrive when there is a severe power vacuum and people turn to relying on family connections and families to survive. But at the end of the day, organized political, military, and terrorist movements generally win out when they face off against clans and tribes in the region.
Mar. 12, 2024 update: Some Israeli specialists doubt that clans in Gaza can help run the territory after Hamas, writes Gianluca Pacchiani.
experts' skepticism is mainly due to the diminished clout that clans now hold in contemporary Gazan society, and the inevitable influence that established Palestinian political movements would exert over them.
"The clans are a thing of the past," said Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and an expert on Israeli-Palestinian relations. "Relying on them is relying on a broken reed."
Dror Zeevi, a professor of Middle East Studies at Ben Gurion University, adds that
"If Israel decides to depend on a series of clans, their chiefs would quickly go to the Palestinian Authority and get their marching orders from them. They're not going to get them from Israel. So you'll end up having Hamas or PA rule anyway," said Zeevi.
Tzoreff concurred. "Whoever goes behind the back of the nationalist movements to speak with Israel will run into trouble." ...
"Israel can perhaps make small humanitarian agreements with the clans," Zeevi said. "But there's no way that they can be effective as a controlling power in Gaza. Israel needs to choose between the PA and Hamas. There's nothing in between." ...
[With the start of the First Intifada] "All the clans lost their importance," said Tzoreff. "Mukhtars who used to speak with Israel before the intifada became irrelevant in the eyes of their community. Israel also stopped talking with them, and started speaking with the leadership of the intifada instead."
David Hacham, a retired IDF colonel who served in Gaza's military administration of civilian affairs between 1985 and 1993, sees things differently:
In the event of Israel maintaining control over Gaza after the war, retired colonel Hacham posited that in Gaza's traditional, conservative society, family-centered structures are still a dominant force and can work as a liaison between the Israeli government and the local population. According to Hacham, clans are still a preferable alternative to the ailing PA, which is perceived by its citizenry as corrupt and ineffective and has already lost control over parts of the West Bank.
Tzoreff, on the other hand, did not believe that Israel could retain long-term military and civilian control of Gaza: "No international partners would be willing to cooperate with us," he warned. He saw no alternative to a "rehabilitated" Palestinian government taking control of the Strip, as per the American vision.
To Tzoreff, the power decline of the clans in favor of nationalist political movements has been an inevitable consequence of the development of a Palestinian national consciousness since the First Intifada, when the conflict spread throughout in the West Bank and Gaza.
"In every society, there is an initial phase when the community is centered around families and tribes. At a later stage, the idea of peoplehood emerges. This also applies to the Palestinians," said Tzoreff. "Does anyone actually believe that we can turn back the clock of history and return the Palestinians to the days when they did not regard themselves as a people? It makes no sense. We can't run the process in reverse."
Mar. 13, 2024 update: MEMRI summarizes a video posted by the Brussels-based Palestinian activist Amjad AbuKoush in which he voiced
severe criticism of Hamas, Al-Jazeera, and Qatar. He said that Palestinians are paying the price for Hamas's policies throughout the past 17 years. AbuKoush said that Hams has declared that this is a "victorious" war for the liberation of Jerusalem, but its maximal demands in its negotiations are that Israel withdraws from Gaza and the Strip is rebuilt, while Israel was not in Gaza prior to the war and the Strip did not need rebuilding then. He added that Hamas gave the "filthiest and lowest occupation in history" a pretext because of their "stupidity."
Mar. 14, 2024 update: (1) "Abu Ali" reports, relying on Gazan sources, that
Hamas executed Mahtar of the Daghmesh clan, in the middle of the clan's "diwan" – that is, in the central area from which the clan is controlled – an elimination with a clear statement.
In recent days, Hamas issued a statement in which it warned the heads of the clans against cooperating with Israel in this area (it fears that Israel will succeed in creating a governing body to replace it. This is a threat to its power base).
JNS provides more commentary on the clans:
Israel has floated the idea of Gaza clans acting as partners in running the internal affairs of the Strip after Hamas has been eliminated. In January, Israel's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer submitted a plan to the Security Cabinet that looked to the clans to form part of the backbone of a post-war civil administration. ...
"Even if there are tribes that want to say yes to Israel and participate in the management of the Strip, they know that this is a danger to their lives because Hamas has not yet been completely destroyed," said a Palestinian source, cited by Israel Hayom on Tuesday. The Hebrew daily said that given Hamas's continued hold on parts of the Gaza Strip, it's hard to see the families taking action in the direction of Israel—the statement by some clans in support of "the resistance" being a case in point.
Khaled Abu Toameh disagrees, reporting that some clans linked to the Palestinian Authority have started to challenge Hamas in recent weeks.
"These clans, known to have dozens of armed members, began operating their own enforcers in some towns and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip to prevent looting and other acts of anarchy and lawlessness," he wrote.
"At least one clan was reportedly involved in escorting some of the trucks loaded with humanitarian aid that entered the Gaza Strip through Egypt and Israel," he added.
Hamas and the P.A. are competing for the clans' support as they understand this support is "crucial" for whoever seeks to control the Gaza Strip, he said.
"That's why P.A. and Hamas leaders have always treated the large families and their leaders with utmost respect. In some instances, clan leaders were elevated to the unofficial position of supreme judges and arbitrators, replacing the official judiciary and law enforcement of both organizations."
(2) The Christian Science Monitor reports that "Gazans are now daring to speak out."
Across the Gaza Strip ... Palestinian frustration and anger with Hamas is on the rise. ... Now, with starvation, profiteering, and internal chaos on the rise, the militant group that has ruled the strip for 17 years is nowhere to be found.
"We did not choose to be in a war that takes us from our homes, [takes] the lives of loved ones, and puts our lives in a death game that we knew nothing about," says Bisan Nateel, a youth organizer for a local Gaza nongovernmental organization.
"Hamas didn't warn us or give any instructions to protect or help people. I don't know what they were thinking or what they expected people to do, but this is unacceptable for everyone in Gaza," says Walid, an aid worker in central Gaza who declined to use his full name. "I feel that Hamas gambled with our lives at stake, and lost."
Rafaat Naim, a Gaza businessman and former member of the Palestine Chamber of Commerce, says prior to the war, support for Hamas among Gaza residents was already limited. "Hamas' popularity in the Gaza Strip was waning, due to its governance failures [and] misallocation of funds," he says. "The devastating impact of the conflict further entrenched this sentiment."
The anger that has been simmering since the early days of the war, meanwhile, has only in recent weeks come to the surface. These are not organized calls or political protests against Hamas, but conversational complaints growing louder by the day. Tiny protests have been scattered.
"People now are very angry with Hamas, but at the same time they are afraid to express the anger inside them by protesting or holding sit-ins," notes Wael Mohammad, a civil engineer and longtime Hamas critic in Gaza. He says 16 years of the Islamic Hamas' intimidation tactics, as well as its use of religious faith to push its ideology, made "the population in Gaza docile."
Now with the lack of Hamas police officers on the streets, and a reduced threat of being dragged off by its security services, people in Gaza, facing starvation, are more emboldened to criticize the movement in public. Some even curse it. ...
growing disillusion with Hamas' rule is impacting the group's future prospects each day the war goes on, as residents see it as unresponsive, irresponsible, and lacking basic care for Gaza's people. ...
"Hamas followed the same old war plan and left the people to the mercy of Israelis," says Walid, the aid worker.
"We gave in to Hamas for a long time, and we thought Hamas as a party would be prepared for the war after Oct. 7 as they claimed. But they were only ready to protect themselves," says Rana Alsayed, a mother and feminist activist from Gaza City who was displaced four times by Israel's offensives.
"This war is beyond Hamas' capabilities," says Ahmed, a Gaza photojournalist who blames intense targeting by Israel's military for the movement's inability to govern or protect its citizens. "It cannot help itself, let alone the people." ...
"They see their role is to fight Israelis and not to care for the people. But since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, they implicitly agreed to care for its people," says Walid, who, like many, sees Hamas as "evading that responsibility."
"At least provide enough food for the people to not die of hunger. Build shelters and safe places for the people to go to. Establish a form of civic protection and law enforcement to keep people in check," the aid worker says.
"The Oct. 7 operation was nothing but a continuation of the series of political and military gambles that the movement has made since its inception, an operation that brought nothing but destruction, killing, displacement, and deportation of the residents of the Gaza Strip," says Mr. Mohammad, the civil engineer. He likens the movement to "a group of mercenaries and militias that do not rise to the level of a Palestinian movement" and don't "care about Palestinian blood." He, and others, point to statements by Hamas' leadership abroad at the onset of the war that it was the responsibility of the United Nations and the international community, not Hamas, to protect Gaza civilians. ...
"We have to buy food that was sent to Gaza as aid. We hear lots of rumors that this aid was stolen under the eyes of Hamas, sometimes in complicity with people from the government," says Walid.
Mohammed, an accountant and former government employee now in Rafah, says the links between Hamas and aid theft across Gaza are "clear." "We cannot provide definitive proof, but who has the guns? Who has the monopoly on force in Gaza? It's Hamas. The work of organized criminal groups wouldn't happen without their consent," Mohammed says via WhatsApp messaging. "They are profiting politically and economically from our death and misery." ...
Despite the rising anger, fear persists amid occasional reports of mosque imams or civil society organizers being dragged off and "disappeared" by Hamas for voicing public criticism. Protesters gathering in northern Gaza were shot at by armed men. "At the grassroots level, Hamas persists in its oppression even amid these dire circumstances," notes Mr. Naim, the businessman.
In the void left behind by Hamas, some Gazans are attempting to organize at the grassroots to provide services and a sense of order. In Rafah, so-called Protection Committees – groups of local young men, dressed in matching black clothes and masks, armed with batons – are providing basic security to markets and public areas.
Mr. Naim is one of several local Gaza business owners and community leaders who are attempting to form a council to facilitate the entry and distribution of aid and goods. They have set their sights on advocating for the border to open to resume a robust flow of aid and commerce into the besieged strip. "The people demand resolute, clear, and strategic decisions to pave the way for stability," says Mr. Naim.
Yet attempts by the people to organize and circumvent Hamas face steep obstacles – and danger. This week, unverified reports emerged that Hamas executed a mukhtar, or local community leader, in northern Gaza, allegedly for coordinating with the Israeli military for a separate initiative to facilitate aid.
The incident appeared to confirm what Palestinians in Gaza already knew or believed: Any Israeli involvement would delegitimize and kill any alternative group providing services in Gaza. "The occupation's civil administration has engaged with some community leaders and members of the private sector," notes Mr. Naim. "This initiative is both unacceptable and risky for all involved on the Palestinian side."
While the majority of Palestinians in Gaza interviewed say they no longer want Hamas' rule, a significant portion still support its existence as an armed movement. A lack of alternatives leaves Gazans unsure of their future. "I still support Hamas as a liberation movement, but I am not satisfied with its uncalculated actions," notes Ahmed, the photojournalist.
With the losses piling up for families in Gaza facing missile strikes, famine, and profiteering, more Gazans say the idea of trusting Hamas as rulers governing the strip again is unthinkable. "I lost my mother, my husband lost half his family, and we lost our house. My children have known nothing but wars and escalations," says Ms. Alsayed, the Gaza feminist. "How can my children ever believe in Hamas, who are neither providing us with a bite to eat nor allowing anyone else to do so?"
Mar. 16, 2024 update: Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sketched out four possible and all bad outcomes in Gaza. From worst to best, in his view: Hamas rule, Israeli rule, anarchy, PA rule. This prompted severe criticism from Likud.
Mar. 19, 2024 update: (1) The Center for Peace Communications has posted a video of Gazans explaining why they do not want Hamas to rule them again.
(2) S. Schneidmann. a Research Fellow at MEMRI, reports that Hamas condemned the notion of a clan-based civil administration
as early as January 6, 2024. As the idea coalesced into practical steps, Hamas threatened, on March 10, to strike "with an iron fist" against anyone compromising the "interior front," emphasizing that the contacts between certain mukhtars and the Israeli occupation constitute "national treason." Hamas sources expressed great confidence in the tribes' loyalty to the Hamas leadership and in the capabilities of its security apparatus in detecting communications between tribal elements and Israel and the Palestinian Authority, in order to thwart all subversive organizing.
Arab media reported on March 14 that Hamas had already executed two tribal elders charged with treason and with collaborating with the enemy – the mukhtars of the Doghmush and Kafarna clans. The report was vigorously denied by the Hamas government the same day. The Doghmush clan also published a statement denying that the mukhtar had been executed by Hamas, saying that he had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in November 2023. The statement emphasized that the clan has no contacts with any foreign elements and that any declaration of a blood feud with Hamas over the execution of the Mukhtar is false.
In further response to the threat issued by Hamas, tribal elements released statements underlining their allegiance to Hamas rule. For example, the head of the Supreme Council for Tribal Matters in the Gaza Strip, Abu-Salman Al-Marni, told Hamas's Shehab news agency that there had indeed been attempts by Israel, regional, and international elements to demand that tribes act as an alternative to Hamas's rule in the Gaza Strip. He said that all tribes oppose this and reject the idea that they should replace the Hamas government, and that anyone who cooperates with the occupation is not a mukhtar and does not represent their families. In another statement to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, Al-Marni underlined that the tribes support whoever is chosen by the people – i.e. Hamas, in the 2006 Palestinian Authority Legislative Council elections – and that the tribes have no intention of replacing Hamas rule. In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Al-Marni said that the Hamas administration alone is responsible for securing and distributing humanitarian aid, and that "all" the tribes refuse to collaborate with Israel or take Hamas' place.
Such statements were of course welcomed by Hamas, but some sources disputed them. For example, a Telegram channel called "The Tribes and Families Of the Southern Districts – Gaza Strip" posted on social media that the organization called The Supreme Council of the Tribes of Gaza or The Supreme Council for Tribal Matters in the Gaza Strip is subordinate to Hamas and is not a legitimate body that represents all the tribes.
Mar. 20, 2024 update: (1) Reuters reports that video footage it reviewed points to Hamas-related operatives guarding a convoy of trucks entering Gaza with aid, and that this implies that Hamas still rules the Gazan population.
With Israel sworn to eliminate Hamas following its deadly October 7 raid on Israel, it has become highly risky for anyone linked to the Islamist group to emerge into the open to provide security for aid deliveries to desperate civilians.
So numerous clans, civil society groups and factions — including Hamas's secular political rival Fatah — have stepped in to help provide security for the aid convoys, according to the Palestinian officials and Hamas sources.
Those sources believe that
Hamas' ability to rally such groups behind it over security showed it retains influence, and that efforts by Israel to build its own administrative system to keep order in Gaza were being resisted.
"Israel's plan to find some clans to collaborate with its pilot projects of finding an alternative to Hamas didn't succeed but it also showed that Palestinian resistance factions are the only ones who can run the show, in one way or another," said a Palestinian official who asked not to be named.
(2) The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research published a new public opinion survey today that it finds puzzling: asked "If it was up to you, which of those would you prefer to see in control of the Gaza Strip?"
Gazans' support for continued Hamas control over the Gaza Strip has increased to [52%], a 14-point rise. Indeed, given the magnitude of the suffering in the Gaza Strip, this seems to be the most counter intuitive finding of the entire poll.
Mar. 21, 2024 update: (1) My full-sized article on this topic, "Building a Decent Gaza," has now appeared.
(2) Simultaneously, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Government of Israel is planning along the lines I suggest in that article. Excerpts:
Israeli security officials are quietly developing a plan to distribute aid in the Gaza Strip that could eventually create a Palestinian-led governing authority there, Israeli and Arab officials said, causing a fierce backlash from Hamas and creating divisions in Israel's war cabinet.
A top Israeli defense official has held talks with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan to build regional support for an emerging effort to enlist Palestinian leaders and businessmen who have no links to Hamas—a U.S.-designated terrorist organization—in distributing aid, some of the officials said.
The aid would enter by land and sea after Israeli inspection and would head to large warehouses in central Gaza, where Palestinians would then distribute it, the officials said. When the war is over, the people in charge of aid would assume authority to govern, backed up by security forces funded by wealthy Arab governments, the officials said. ...
"Gaza will be run by those who do not seek to kill Israelis," said a senior Israeli official from the prime minister's office. Another Israeli official said Hamas's vehement opposition could make the plan unfeasible. ...
Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian, the head of the Israeli security arm overseeing civilian affairs in occupied territories, sees the aid effort as an important part of Israel's plan to evacuate the city of Rafah, Hamas's last stronghold, before an offensive on the border city. The aid-distribution network would feed 750,000 to a million people in displacement camps that Israel has planned for absorbing Rafah's population, which has swelled as Gazans sought refuge there, the officials said.
One of the officials said Alian's vision is that anti-Hamas Palestinians would form "a local administrative authority" to distribute aid, cutting out the militant group from the process.
The effort has triggered retaliatory threats from Hamas. The group has labeled anyone who works with the Israelis as traitors and threatened them with death. Several Palestinian families once thought to be open to the idea have withdrawn in recent days. "Accepting communication with the occupation forces by heads of families and tribes for work in the Gaza Strip is considered national betrayal, which we will not allow," a Hamas security official said in a public statement on March 10, shortly after Israel's efforts began.
Hamas has played no formal role in distributing aid in Gaza but views the nascent Israeli plan as a way to create an independent governing structure. "We will strike with an iron hand against anyone who tampers with the internal front in the Gaza Strip and will not permit the imposition of new rules," the Hamas security official said.
Mar. 22, 2024 update: Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, dismisses the idea of setting up a local administration made up of clans and large Gazan families as "a fantasy [that] has no chance of success, both because of the nature of Gazan clan structures, which is different from Judea and Samaria, and because Hamas will continue to kill clan members to make it clear that cooperation with Israel is out of the question."
Mar. 24, 2024 update: Israel's security sources believe, according to Arutz Sheva,
that without armed groups in Gaza other than Hamas, it will be impossible to form a governmental alternative to the terrorist organization, which is taking over humanitarian aid and trying to regain control in the northern and central Gaza Strip through Hamas operatives and policemen.
The question of arming Gazans and local leaders in Gaza, as well as issues of who will control the Gaza Strip the day after the war, will also be brought up for discussion in Defense Minister Gallant's meeting with US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The US might agree to supply the guns, with Israeli approval, to community leaders who will be pre-approved by Israel.
Mar. 25, 2024 update: Rafael Castro writes in Arutz Sheva that "Proposals like Daniel Pipes' suggestion of empowering non-Hamas-affiliated Gazans may sound appealing but lack realism."
Apr. 7, 2024 update: Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a Gazan living in the United States, explains in an interview how he hopes to end the war with Israel.
Apr. 12, 2024 update: Alkhatib becomes even more explicit in an article in the Emirati newspaper, The National, under the title "Israel's war has killed 31 members of my family, yet it's vital to speak out against Hamas. To realise peace, the pro-Palestine movement must not buy into the militants' self-serving, nihilistic narrative." Excerpts:
Hamas and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, have helped to drag Gazans into that war without any strategic vision beyond violent extremism and messianic nihilism. ...
Hamas's regime consisted of a criminal and despotic enterprise that used Gaza as a haven for the group's members and affiliates and turned Palestinians there into aid-dependent subjects reliant on the international community. Hamas enriched itself in the process of turning Gaza into a "resistance citadel" that was part of a nefarious regional alliance with Iran. ...
[Hamas] instigated futile wars with Israel that failed to liberate an inch of Palestinian land and would instead get Gazans killed and batter the Strip. Hamas would then benefit from the reconstruction funded by the international community and the work of humanitarian NGOs, absolving itself from its governance responsibilities and facing little consequences for its violent and destructive actions. ...
It is incumbent upon those of us who have privilege and access to safety, resources and free expression to speak up and out and help the Palestinian people develop a new programme and movement that propels their just and urgent cause forward. ...
What is needed is ... a pragmatic acceptance that after 75 years of setbacks, Israel's people are there to stay, and we must find a way to establish a shared future that embraces and acknowledges each other's mutual existence. ...
a post-Hamas Palestinian leadership must view the reconstruction of Gaza after the war as an opportunity to prove and demonstrate the viability of the kind of governance of which Palestine is truly capable: one that can effectively usher in an independent and sovereign state.
Apr. 21, 2024 update: Palestinian Media Watch calls it a "an incredible and rare admission." What is it?
Fatah has corroborated what Israel has been saying all along: that Hamas ... has been committing what is essentially a triple crime—it has attacked and killed aid workers in order to control aid distribution, stolen the food and water for itself, and caused food prices to skyrocket."
Here is Ramzi Awda, secretary-general of the International Campaign to Combat the Occupation and Apartheid, on the Fatah television station, also called Awda:
Hamas' persecution of any party who is a source for distributing the [humanitarian] aid or securing it began from the start of the [Oct. 7] war, as Hamas persecuted well-known figures and teams of volunteers on the ground in mid-October. It attacked them and killed some of them for two reasons: Firstly, preventing any activity by any [other] party in the Gaza Strip; and secondly, ensuring Hamas control over the aid and its storage, which of course leads to these crazy and unreal prices that no one can pay in the shadow of this destruction. After the occupation (i.e., Israel) bombed storehouses controlled by Hamas, the accumulation of tons of various food and aid products that Hamas had taken exclusivity over became clear, at a time when the Gaza Strip is suffering from hunger."
The program went on the include part of an interview that first aired on Al-Jazeera:
Woman from the Gaza Strip: "The aid isn't reaching all the people."
Al-Jazeera TV reporter: "Few things are arriving and they [Hamas] claim they are distributing them."
Woman: "It is all to their [own] homes. Let Hamas catch me and shoot me and do what they want to me."
The Fatah program goes on to comment:
This is a damning indictment by Fatah, exposing Hamas' heinous actions against humanitarian aid workers and Palestinian civilians in need of food. World powers were quick to decry Israel for an inadvertent tragedy that killed several World Central Kitchen personnel. These same authorities and media outlets must now condemn Hamas with equal vigor for its intentional murder of aid workers. A failure to condemn Hamas for intentional murder by the countries and frameworks who condemned Israel for accidental killing would expose once again a glaring double standard by international bodies, and especially the media, that unfortunately has accompanied this entire war.
For more information, see the report by MEMRI.