Lion's Den :: Daniel Pipes Blog  

The Middle East Forum: Strategy, not Advocacy

January 31, 2012

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Given the many excellent organizations dealing with Middle Eastern and Islamic issues, what niches does the Middle East Forum's fill? We provide strategic counsel, as opposed to advocacy or apologetics. To understand what this means, look at the Arab-Israeli conflict, which attracts particularly intense attention and vehement views.

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Anarchy, the New Threat

January 28, 2012

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The scourge of the twentieth century was overly-powerful governments; could the looming problem of this century be too-weak governments?

The political scientist R. J. Rummel estimates, in his evocatively titled study, Death by Government (New Brunswick, N.J.:  Transaction, 1994) with revised numbers in 2005, that deaths at the hands of one's own government in the period 1900-87 amounted to 212 million persons, while deaths from warfare numbered 34 million. In other words, victims of their own government (what he calls democide) were in fact over six times greater than those killed in the century's wars.

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Egyptian Nuclear Power Plant Ransacked

January 16, 2012

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Egypt Independent reports on vandalizing, looting, and fighting at the nuclear power plant being built at El-Dabaa, a town in the desert to the west of Alexandria. The account draws on an unnamed source at the Ministry of Electricity and Energy who

El-Dabaa nuclear power station in its full glory.

accused security authorities and the governor of North Sinai of "causing the disaster." The official said the initial losses were around LE0.5 billion [= US$83 million]. He also accused a businessman and former member in the defunct National Democratic Party of being "behind the chaos," but did not name the businessman allegedly involved.

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Will No-Interest Banking Undo Turkey's Economy?

January 10, 2012

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That's the thesis implicit to David Goldman's analysis at "Recall notice for the Turkish model." After dubbing the Turkish economy a bubble that "is bursting, starting with the stock market and national currency," he makes this observation about the prime minister:

Erdoğan has the weirdest economic views of any serving head of government. He justified the credit bubble on religious grounds, pledging repeatedly to cut the "real" interest rate (the cost of interest minus the inflation rate) to zero. "We aim to cut the real interest rate in the long run, so people will increase their incomes through working, not through interest," he said last April. "Eventually we aim to equalize the interest rate and inflation rate." Erdoğan believes that this would fulfill the Islamic injunction against lending for interest; if the real interest rate is zero, he seems to think, the sharia ban on interest is fulfilled de facto.

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L'Institut d'Égypte – In Memoriam

December 26, 2011

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Title page of the first volume of the Description de l'Égypte (1809).

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Turkey & Israel – The End of the Affair

December 22, 2011

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Military relations have been at the core of the Ankara-Jerusalem entente. These took off in February 1996 when the two sides signed a military training agreement that had Israeli air force jets flying over Anatolia, making the Turks the first Muslim-majority people to establish a formal military link to Israel.

Similarly, the end of the entente has just taken place. The decision by the Israelis to cancel a $141 million military deal signed with Turkey in 2008, out of concern that the Turks might deliver the state-of-the-art aerial intelligence system based on electro-optic sensors to enemies of Israel.

Erdoğan staged a high-profile break with Shimon Peres as his victim in early 2009.

Comment: It's deeply unfortunate that the vagaries of Turkey's electoral politics permitted an Islamist party to dominate the country in 2002 – but at least the Israelis (and French) recognize this development, unlike the Americans, who persist in thinking all is well. (December 22, 2011)

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Hezbollah and Hamas in Decline

December 21, 2011

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In their 30- and 25-year histories, Hezbollah and Hamas have gone from strength to strength, going from simple terrorist groups to major political force within Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. But now, with economic sanctions starting to bite in Iran and the government of Syria fighting for its life, they have both met hard times that could precursor a collapse or a split. Details:

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The Slap Heard Around the World

December 17, 2011

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A year ago to the day, Officer Fadiya Hamdi slapped fruit vendor Mohammed Bouazizi across the face in the small Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid, setting off upheavals that caused three seeming Arab dictators-for-life to lose power: Ben Ali of Tunisia resigned on January 14, Mubarak of Egypt resigned on February 11, and Qaddafi of Libya was killed on October 20. (In addition, Saleh of Yemen resigned on November 23 but that appears to be more a ruse to hang on to power than his really leaving office.)

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Newt Gingrich and the "Invented" Palestinian People

December 10, 2011

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The former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and current Republican presidential candidate said yesterday that "there was no Palestine as a state. It was part of the Ottoman Empire. We have invented the Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs and are historically part of the Arab people, and they had the chance to go many places."

Everyone from the PLO to a Mitt Romney spokesman jumped on Gingrich for this assertion, but he happens to be absolutely correct: no Arabic-speaking Muslims identified themselves as "Palestinian" until 1920, when, in rapid order this appellation and identity was adopted by the Muslim Arabs living in the British mandate of Palestine.

For details, see a long article of mine from 1989 on the topic or a short one from 2000. (December 10, 2011)

Obama's Leftist Conundrum

November 27, 2011

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Barack Obama suffers from an inherent policy contradiction, especially in foreign affairs.

On the one hand, as a Leftist he despises the United States and sees it as a force for ill in the world. On the other, as president, is judged by how well the country fares during his tenure.

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