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Pipes vs. Roman on Syria
April 7, i24

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How Middle East Terrorism Affects India
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Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
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The Threat of Radical Islam and the Future of the Eastern Mediterranean
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Bibliography – My Writings on Palestinian Defeat, Israel Victory

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 26, 2017

As the Oslo process unraveled, starting in 1997 I developed an alternative approach: Not more counterproductive negotiations but a return to the classic scenario of defeat and victory. I wrote often on this topic over two decades. I collect them here, a day ahead of the launch of the Congressional Israel Victory Caucus devoted to promoting these ideas:

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[Symposium] What Conservative Historians Are Saying about Trump's First 100 Days

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 23, 2017

History News Network introduction:

Donald Trump's first 100 days have seen the appointment and termination of decorated general Michael Flynn from the Defense Intelligence Agency, the eclipse of former Breitbart News executive Steve Bannon, a steady decline in the relationship with Russia, the bombing of Syria, a failed attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare, and two failed attempts to impose a ban on certain groups of immigrants. This wasn't exactly what Trump promised.  On the plus side he succeeded in appointing a religious conservative to the Supreme Court, fulfilling his commitment to evangelicals, while issuing executive orders that many conservatives approved.

We wondered what conservative historians make of Trump's debut.  Here's what they [Larry Schweikart, Daniel Pipes, Victor Davis Hanson, Paul Gottfried, Brad Birzer, and Robert Merry] told us.

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The Erdoğan Enigma

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 22, 2017  •  Australian

I nominate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, as the most inconsistent, mysterious, and therefore most unpredictable major politician on the world stage. His victory in a referendum last Sunday formally bestows him with near-dictatorial powers that leave Turkey, the Middle East, and beyond in a greater state of uncertainty than ever.

Here are some of the puzzles:

Mystery #1: Holding the referendum. The Turkish electorate voted on April 16 in a remarkable national plebiscite that dealt not with the usual topic – floating a bond or recalling a politician – but with fundamental constitutional changes affecting the very nature of their government: Should the country continue with the flawed democracy of the past 65 years or centralize political power in the presidency? Under the new dispensation, the prime minister vaporizes and the president holds vast power over parliament, the cabinet, the judiciary, the budget, and the military.

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A Parent's Guide to College Visits

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 14, 2017

My youngest child is in 11th grade, so it's time to strap on the sandals again and tour some colleges. After immersing myself in several this week in the Boston area, I offer some impressions:

College visits are impressively organized and quite alike, with one each in the a.m. and p.m. On arrival, the family checks in, receives a brochure, then listens to a vivacious assistant director of admissions for an hour, mostly about the university (how many Nobel Prize winners, how many varsity sports, how many countries represented in the student body) and a bit about the application process (dates, emphases, tests required). As the talk ends, student guides glide into the room, the 100-200 family members find themselves randomly divided into about ten groups, and they go off for the second hour, escorted around campus by a chirpy student who shows off classrooms, restaurants, and dormitories.

The nearly identical format is both boring and useful, for it allows students and parents more easily to make direct apples-to-apples comparisons. Which chemistry labs or dormitory rooms appear superior? Which campus has the best security?

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Turkey's Vainglorious Referendum

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 14, 2017  •  Wall Street Journal

This Sunday, millions of Turks will vote to endorse or reject constitutional amendments passed in January by Turkey's parliament. An opinion piece published by the German news agency Deutsche Welle explains that the "crucial" amendments "give all the power to one person, with almost no accountability," eliminating what is left of democracy in Turkey. Virtually all observers agree that if the referendum passes, Turkey will be transformed into an authoritarian state.

But I (along with a few others) disagree. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan years ago arrogated all the powers that the constitutional changes would bestow on him. He is already lord of all he sees for as long as he wants, whether through democratic means or by fixing election results. If the referendum passes, it will merely prettify that reality.

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Breaking the Palestinians' Will to Fight

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 10, 2017  •  Mosaic

Daniel Polisar of Shalem College in Jerusalem shook the debate over Palestinian-Israeli relations in November 2015 with his essay, "What Do Palestinians Want?" In it, having studied 330 polls to "understand the perspective of everyday Palestinians" toward Israel, Israelis, Jews, and the utility of violence against them, he found that Palestinian attackers are "venerated" by their society—with all that that implies.

He's done it again with "Do Palestinians Want a Two-State Solution?" This time, he pored over some 400 opinion polls of Palestinian views to find consistency among seemingly contradictory evidence on the topic of ways to resolve the conflict with Israel. From this confusing bulk, Polisar convincingly establishes that Palestinians collectively hold three related views of Israel: it has no historical or moral claim to exist, it is inherently rapacious and expansionist, and it is doomed to extinction. In combination, these attitudes explain and justify the widespread Palestinian demand for a state from "the river to the sea," the grand Palestine of their maps that erases Israel.

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No to Bombing Syria

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 6, 2017

The Obama Administration rightly stayed out of Syria through six painful, grisly years of civil war there. Yes, the fighting has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions. Yes, the uncontrolled migration of Syrians to Europe caused deep problems there. Yes, the Kurds are sympathetic. Yes, Barack Obama made a fool of himself when he declared the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons a "red line" and proceeded not to enforce it.

Despite all this, it was right not to intervene because Iranian- and Russian-backed Shi'ite pro-government jihadis are best kept busy fighting Saudi-, Qatar-, and Turkish-backed anti-government Sunni jihadis; because Kurds, however appealing, are not contenders for control of the whole of Syria; and because Americans have no stomach for another Middle Eastern war.

The direct American involvement that a few hours ago with nearly 60 cruise missiles in an hour attacking Shayrat Air Base implies siding with one side against the other, even though both of them are hideously repugnant. (While the regime has done the great preponderance of the killing, estimated at 94 percent, that's due only to its greater destructive power, not the humanitarianism of ISIS and its other enemies.)

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A Return to the Academy

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 5, 2017  •  Washington Times

I just attended a two-day academic conference at the University of Pennsylvania, in part out of interest in the topic ("American & Muslim Worlds ca. 1500-1900"), in part to get a first-hand sense of discourse in the humanities at the contemporary university. As the founder of Campus Watch, I wondered if it is as bad as our reports suggest, or whether we focus on outliers.

My first impression was one of intellectual coziness. A broad consensus on a common base of liberal assumptions crowds out dissenting opinions. A series of hierarchies exists:

  • Modern bests old
  • Non-American bests American
  • Female bests male
  • Dark skin bests white skin
  • Muslim bests non-Muslim

The word "Islamophobia" is used as though a normal English-language word rather than a propagandistic tool to shut down criticism. A prominent nineteenth century missionary, Henry Jessup, was anachronistically called a "preeminent Muslim-basher."

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Another Attempt at "Extreme Vetting"

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 4, 2017

Donald Trump first coined the phrase "extreme vetting" in July 2016, in the aftermath of the truck attack in Nice, France. For nine months, he and his advisors have been trying to figure out what this means in practice.

Their first iteration, announced on Jan. 27, just days after their coming to office, focused on countries, not individuals. This approach has twice been shot down by the courts; further, it inherently makes no sense: some Iranians are friends and some Canadians are enemies. Looking at countries is crude and ineffective.

Today, the Wall Street Journal reports on the second try at "Trump Administration Considers Far-Reaching Steps for 'Extreme Vetting'" by Laura Meckler.

It's good to hear that the authorities are taking this issue seriously. The new approach has two halves. The first is excellent, requiring that foreigners who wish to visit the United States "to answer probing questions about their ideology." In more detail: the "ideological test" will, according to a Department of Homeland Security official working on the review, include questions such as

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Historians Run Amok

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 4, 2017

The eminent historian Niall Ferguson has devastatingly skewered his (and my) field of study in a talk for the American Council of Trustees and Alumni, subsequently published as "The Decline and Fall of History."

He starts with the empirical fact that undergraduates are running away from studying history: compared with 1971 (coincidentally, the year I got my A.B. degree), "the share of history and social sciences degrees has halved, from 18% in 1971 to 9%. And the decline seems likely to continue."

Why so? Data from the American Historical Association finds that the past 40 years have seen

a very big increase in the number of historians who specialize in women and gender, which has risen from 1% of the total to almost 10%. As a result, gender is now the single most important subfield in the academy. Cultural history (from under 4% to nearly 8%) is next. The history of race and ethnicity has also gone up by a factor of more than three. Environmental history is another big winner.

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Bibliography – My Writings on the Caliphate

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 1, 2017

The caliphate was a key political institution of early Islam that withered over the centuries and by the 940s ce had become a vestige of its former self. For the next near-millennium, the institution continued in an attenuated form, eventually becoming one title among many for the Mamluk and Ottoman rulers. In 1924, Kemal Atatürk abolished even that remnant. The umma lacked a khalifa until 2014, when the self-declared Islamic State came to existence with a Caliph Ibrahim at its head, reviving an ancient and moribund institution.

I have covered several aspects of this topic in my writings, listed here in chronological order.

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review of Ike's Gamble: America's Rise to Dominance in the Middle East.

by Daniel Pipes  •  Spring 2017  •  Middle East Quarterly

When Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute told me he's writing a book on President Dwight D. Eisenhower's Middle East policy, I nodded politely, wondering why someone engaged in current policy issues would devote himself to a topic of mainly antiquarian interest. Well, having now read Ike's Gamble, I know the answer: his topic is both fascinating in itself and has continuing relevance for U.S. foreign policy.

Gamal Abdel Nasser came to power about the same time in Egypt as Eisenhower and, as the leader of pan-Arab nationalism, dominated the Middle East during the president's entire eight-years in office. In light of their intense competition with the Soviet Union, American leaders had a choice of two basic approaches to Nasser: build him up to win him over or treat him as an opponent to reduce his influence.

Focused primarily on finding allies against Moscow, Eisenhower and his secretary of state, John Foster Dulles, decided to woo Nasser; that's the gamble of the title. Doran follows this implausible effort in painful but nearly novelistic detail, revealing the full extent of its faulty premises, tactical blunders, and strategic errors. In brief, American support turned Nasser into the dictator of Egypt, wildly popular pan-Arab nationalist hero, invaluable Soviet ally, and global anti-American chieftain. Finally, in 1958, after the particularly bruising Suez War experience, the realist core in Eisenhower and Dulles wised up.

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Smoking Out Islamists via Extreme Vetting

by Daniel Pipes  •  Spring 2017  •  Middle East Quarterly

Donald Trump issued an executive order on Jan. 27 establishing radically new procedures to deal with foreigners who apply to enter the United States. Building on his earlier notion of "extreme vetting," the order explains that

to protect Americans, the United States must ensure that those admitted to this country do not bear hostile attitudes toward it and its founding principles. The United States cannot, and should not, admit those who do not support the Constitution, or those who would place violent ideologies over American law. In addition, the United States should not admit those who engage in acts of bigotry or hatred (including "honor" killings, other forms of violence against women, or the persecution of those who practice religions different from their own) or those who would oppress Americans of any race, gender, or sexual orientation.

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What Do Jihadis Want? The Caliphate

by Daniel Pipes  •  2017  •  Global Terrorism: Challenges and Policy Options, ed. by Dhruv C. Katoch and Shakti Sinha (New Delhi: Pentagon Press), pp..88-91

A question often asked is, "What do the jihadis [Mujahideen] want?" The answer is surprisingly obscure, as most of their attacks do not include clear demands.

The horrific attacks on Mumbai in November 2008 and on Paris in November 2015 were carried out by suicide squads, with gunmen carrying out mass shootings. Elsewhere, they have resorted to machine gun assaults, beheadings, bombings, hijackings etc. After the attackers have been neutralised by the security forces, an assessment is carried out of the damage they caused and detectives attempt to trace the identities of the perpetrators, to look into possible motives. Shadowy websites then make post-hoc unauthenticated claims, which still belie the question, "What do the jihadis want?"

Motives for Jihadi Attacks

Why do the motives go unexplained? Post the attacks on the United States on 11 September 2001, analysts are still speculating on the likely motives. In broad terms however, we can state that there are two general categories or motives for attacks.

The first is to change specific policies of the state which has been targeted. As an example, this could pertain to seeking withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq and Afghanistan or to get Riyadh to expel foreign troops from its soil. It could also be aimed at pressuring governments to end support for Israel or to pressure New Delhi to cede control over Kashmir.

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[Oman:] The Middle East's Most Surprising Country

by Daniel Pipes  •  March 15, 2017  •  Washington Times

Oman, where I have spent the past week, is an Arab country unlike any other. Count the ways.

Islam has three main branches: Sunni (about 90 percent of all Muslims), Shiite (about 9 percent) and Ibadi (about 0.2 percent). Oman has the only Ibadi-majority population in the world. Being a tiny minority in the larger Muslim context, rulers of Oman have historically kept away from Middle Eastern issues. Part of the country was isolated mountainous desert terrain, part was focused on the seas, especially on India and on East Africa. For two centuries, the Omani empire competed with the Europeans for control of the Indian Ocean; indeed, Oman ruled the African island of Zanzibar until 1964, making it the only non-European state to control African territory.

This unique remoteness from Middle Eastern problems, whether it be the Arab-Israeli conflict or Iranian expansionism, remains in place. At present, with a civil war raging in next-door Yemen and Iran making trouble right by Oman's Musandam Peninsula, which juts out into the super-strategic Straits of Hormuz, Oman is an oasis of calm. Jihadism has so far been non-existent, with no acts of violence in Oman and no Omanis joining ISIS.

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