Lion's Den :: Daniel Pipes Blog  

Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran

February 4, 2012

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It's not every day that someone like the U.S. secretary of defense forecasts an ally's move but this just happened when Leon Panetta said that he believes, in the paraphrase of a Washington Post reporter, that "there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June." Thoughts on this unusual statement:

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Are Egypt's Islamists Heading for a Fall?

February 4, 2012

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Terrified of the secular/modern/liberal demonstrators who made their presence known in Tahrir Square, as well as of the soccer hooligans, Mohamed Tantawi and Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces have forged a mutually beneficial relationship with the country's Islamists, thereby blocking their joint opponents from power. Very clever – but maybe too clever by half. Here's why:

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The Middle East Forum: Strategy, not Advocacy

January 31, 2012

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Given the many excellent organizations dealing with Middle Eastern and Islamic issues, what niches does the Middle East Forum's fill? We provide strategic counsel, as opposed to advocacy or apologetics. To understand what this means, look at the Arab-Israeli conflict, which attracts particularly intense attention and vehement views.

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Anarchy, the New Threat

January 28, 2012

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The scourge of the twentieth century was overly-powerful governments; could the looming problem of this century be too-weak governments?

The political scientist R. J. Rummel estimates, in his evocatively titled study, Death by Government (New Brunswick, N.J.:  Transaction, 1994) with revised numbers in 2005, that deaths at the hands of one's own government in the period 1900-87 amounted to 212 million persons, while deaths from warfare numbered 34 million. In other words, victims of their own government (what he calls democide) were in fact over six times greater than those killed in the century's wars.

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Egyptian Nuclear Power Plant Ransacked

January 16, 2012

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Egypt Independent reports on vandalizing, looting, and fighting at the nuclear power plant being built at El-Dabaa, a town in the desert to the west of Alexandria. The account draws on an unnamed source at the Ministry of Electricity and Energy who

El-Dabaa nuclear power station in its full glory.

accused security authorities and the governor of North Sinai of "causing the disaster." The official said the initial losses were around LE0.5 billion [= US$83 million]. He also accused a businessman and former member in the defunct National Democratic Party of being "behind the chaos," but did not name the businessman allegedly involved.

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Will No-Interest Banking Undo Turkey's Economy?

January 10, 2012

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That's the thesis implicit to David Goldman's analysis at "Recall notice for the Turkish model." After dubbing the Turkish economy a bubble that "is bursting, starting with the stock market and national currency," he makes this observation about the prime minister:

Erdoğan has the weirdest economic views of any serving head of government. He justified the credit bubble on religious grounds, pledging repeatedly to cut the "real" interest rate (the cost of interest minus the inflation rate) to zero. "We aim to cut the real interest rate in the long run, so people will increase their incomes through working, not through interest," he said last April. "Eventually we aim to equalize the interest rate and inflation rate." Erdoğan believes that this would fulfill the Islamic injunction against lending for interest; if the real interest rate is zero, he seems to think, the sharia ban on interest is fulfilled de facto.

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L'Institut d'Égypte – In Memoriam

December 26, 2011

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Title page of the first volume of the Description de l'Égypte (1809).

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Turkey & Israel – The End of the Affair

December 22, 2011

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Military relations have been at the core of the Ankara-Jerusalem entente. These took off in February 1996 when the two sides signed a military training agreement that had Israeli air force jets flying over Anatolia, making the Turks the first Muslim-majority people to establish a formal military link to Israel.

Similarly, the end of the entente has just taken place. The decision by the Israelis to cancel a $141 million military deal signed with Turkey in 2008, out of concern that the Turks might deliver the state-of-the-art aerial intelligence system based on electro-optic sensors to enemies of Israel.

Erdoğan staged a high-profile break with Shimon Peres as his victim in early 2009.

Comment: It's deeply unfortunate that the vagaries of Turkey's electoral politics permitted an Islamist party to dominate the country in 2002 – but at least the Israelis (and French) recognize this development, unlike the Americans, who persist in thinking all is well. (December 22, 2011)

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Hezbollah and Hamas in Decline

December 21, 2011

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In their 30- and 25-year histories, Hezbollah and Hamas have gone from strength to strength, going from simple terrorist groups to major political force within Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. But now, with economic sanctions starting to bite in Iran and the government of Syria fighting for its life, they have both met hard times that could precursor a collapse or a split. Details:

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The Slap Heard Around the World

December 17, 2011

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A year ago to the day, Officer Fadiya Hamdi slapped fruit vendor Mohammed Bouazizi across the face in the small Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid, setting off upheavals that caused three seeming Arab dictators-for-life to lose power: Ben Ali of Tunisia resigned on January 14, Mubarak of Egypt resigned on February 11, and Qaddafi of Libya was killed on October 20. (In addition, Saleh of Yemen resigned on November 23 but that appears to be more a ruse to hang on to power than his really leaving office.)

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