Riformista: A week in, please assess the war between Israel and Iran.
Daniel Pipes: Israel's current intelligence and military campaign ranks with the Six-Day War of 1967. Admittedly, its forces this time have not defeated three armies in under a week, but that was a relatively simple operation compared to this one, which required years and many, many layers of preparation. Israel's assault on Iran will likely set the standard for all future peer-to-peer warfare for many years to come.
Incidentally, Israel so completely dominates the battlefield that some of Iranian officialdom has retreated into fantasy. Military spokesman Lt.-Col. Iman Tajik announced that Iran has "obtained complete control of the skies of the occupied territories [i.e., Israel], and the people there have become entirely defenseless against Iran's missile attacks." Even Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i claimed that "Iran's response has weakened the Zionist entity."
 The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps on June 16 appointed Brig. Gen. Iman Tajik spokesperson for Operation True Promise 3, its campaign against Israel. |
Riformista: Israel has the formal goal of destroying Iran's nuclear program but its actions, such as taking out the television service, point to clearing the way for Iranians to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Is this realistic?
DP: Given Jerusalem's uncertainty about its ability to take out all of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, it also aspires to facilitate a general insurrection that will overthrow the Islamic Republic – to instigate a reversal of 1978-79. So far, this does not seem to be happening, as concerns for sustenance and security, plus fears of radiation, would seem to be keeping people largely off the streets. But this might change; the next week should be decisive.
Riformista: Should the regime collapse, what do you expect to follow in Iran?
DP: Iranians in the great majority, perhaps 85 percent, despise their Islamist government, so Islamism will be gone. But deleting an ideology does not assure a path to democracy; will Iran follow more the Ukrainian or the Russian model? The legacy of totalitarian rule makes it difficult to return to normal life, so I am pessimistic. That said, getting rid of tyranny matters most; just as in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, better anarchy than Khamene'i.
Riformista: What external consequences of regime collapse do you foresee?
DP: The collapse of Khomeini's handiwork will have two major international repercussions. First, it will knock Iran out as the Middle East's great revanchist power, deeply changing and improving the region's politics. Second, it will further speed up the decline of Islamism around the world, a process already under way for over a decade. If the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 kickstarted Islamism, the counterrevolution almost a half-century later will hasten its decline.
Riformista: The Hamas-Israel War continues and will soon approach two years. How will developments in Iran affect it?
DP: Iran's disastrous military showing will hang heavily on Hamas in terms of both morale and logistics. Hamas two years ago could feel part of a winning team, something nearly impossible for it to believe now.
Riformista: You have been very critical of Israel's management of the war in Gaza. Are you still?
DP: Yes, and all the more so after its brilliant Iran campaign. Within days, Israeli forces overpowered a country of 90 million. Yet here we are, 625 days into the war with Hamas and Israel has not yet figured out how to defeat a bunch of thugs. The one is as superb as the other pathetic.
Riformista: Trump is notoriously fickle, changing his mind at will. Still, the speed and extent of his change in attitude toward Israel's war on Iranian nuclear infrastructure takes one's breath away. How did this happen and where will it lead?
DP: The American press is full of analyses of precisely this change. Three factors appear to be key: a mix of Iranian obstinacy about enriching uranium and threats ("irreparable damage") to the United States, Israel's military success, and the Israeli and pro-Israel campaign to flatter Trump by giving him substantial credit for Israel's achievements. Israeli analyst Lazar Berman observes that, "Joining the operation now, after Iran's generals are dead and its air defenses obliterated, offers Trump a chance to take credit for a historically audacious campaign that could well change the course of the Middle East." Note how Trump unexpectedly conflated Israel and the United States: "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran."
Riformista: More than ever, Israel has been demonized since October 7, 2023. Will its war against the Islamic Republic of Iran improve or worsen this trend?
 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in shock. |
Second, the world loves a winner and Israel has proven itself a spectacular success. As French analyst Michel Gurfinkiel notes, Israel's military success has positive implications for its relations with the two great powers (the United States, China), with international powers (Europe, Russia, India), and with regional powers (Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia). In recent years, the last named had subscribed "to a key Iranian concept: the twin decline of America and Israel. They are shocked to learn they were mistaken."
