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The Hazard of Misreading Egypt

Reader comment on item: Egypt's Sham Election
in response to reader comment: Flawed Analysis

Submitted by M. Tovey (United States), Dec 20, 2011 at 16:16

To draw to a conclusion that the Egyptian elections would lead to yet another continuation of an uprising based upon the influences of the Muslim Brotherhood is not one that should be so easily entertained. However, Egypt should definitely be watched for the changes in its government, carefully considering that if the military government did not maintain control, an uprising would be the potential hazard to extend the instability such an event would cause. But the military is apparently keeping a wary eye on such things for the sake of maintaining its power.

It is obvious though, that the engine of Egypt's course in its existence is its Islamism; something seen in the uprising where the Copts were cited for their alleged incitements towards democracy, an allegation determined to be discredited. Indeed, in Nero style, the Copts were falsely blamed for being central to the uprising and were instead persecuted to a greater extent for the sake of blame in the attempt to keep Mubarak in power. To that end, the military needed to re-exert its influences to keep Egypt from a complete disintegration and control wrested away.

As for Israel as Egypt's neighbor, the Israeli's still need to keep vigilant and prepared for the activities that have already increased as there appears to be a vacuum of security in the Sinai. Militant Gaza cannot help but carry out their continued attacks as the next few weeks of preparation by Israel's enemies develop. Egypt may not be central to an incursion into Israeli territory (one might wonder why since both times Egypt was on the losing end of such adventures); but Egypt can certainly play the foil during any other foreign agencies attempt to put Israel on the defensive further.

Egypt's elections will never lead to a fully secular (democratic) government; the empathies of the Muslim Brotherhood will never allow for that. Further, the military, in writing or having control of the writing of a new constitution will make sure they are never far from a leadership role, if for no other reason than self preservation. Since it has been observed that democracy as the world understands it does not work all that well in many Middle Eastern environments, it is very unlikely that the Egyptian military will ever submit to a full civilian government for that very reason. That leaves the door open to the other observance-the actual influences of the Islamic elements in the military and how they will respond when called upon.

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".


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Reader comments (58) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
3Mr. Enein's book [369 words]dhimmi no moreFeb 1, 2012 09:34192955
1What of Obama engaging with the Muslim Brotherhood? [20 words]saraJan 13, 2012 17:26192566
1What now? [51 words]streejerJan 13, 2012 17:24192565
4More atrocities by SCAF [143 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
dhimmi no moreDec 18, 2011 10:49191818
7More atrocities by SCAF [162 words]dhimmi no moreDec 19, 2011 07:32191818
3More disasters from the salafists in Egypt [66 words]dhimmi no moreDec 15, 2011 07:02191711
On Fish or Foul [176 words]Jay1Dec 10, 2011 12:48191562
8No aid is the answer [98 words]Sally WiltonDec 9, 2011 08:57191542
3What governments cannot do, people can [83 words]PrashantDec 11, 2011 22:31191542
Sanctions against whom? [87 words]moDec 25, 2011 05:27191542
... Islam [105 words]Amin RiazDec 9, 2011 08:19191539
There might be a reason for that [17 words]JeffDec 11, 2011 19:50191539
2On what basis? [28 words]KayTDec 12, 2011 06:14191539
Israel is NOT secular. [9 words]Amin RiazDec 13, 2011 02:04191539
Confused Assertions [45 words]Amin RiazDec 13, 2011 02:34191539
4About as secular as the UK [108 words]JeffDec 13, 2011 20:25191539
Basic differences. [112 words]Amin RiazDec 14, 2011 14:55191539
2If wikipedia says it then it must be true [124 words]JeffDec 14, 2011 22:42191539
Little bit of History [118 words]Amin RiazDec 16, 2011 01:59191539
1You must be right [70 words]JeffDec 16, 2011 20:58191539
USA is a tyrannical state. [74 words]Amin RiazDec 18, 2011 09:22191539
3An interesting conclusion [65 words]JeffDec 18, 2011 17:57191539
Good nice to hear it. [5 words]Amin RiazDec 19, 2011 04:41191539
7Sure US is a tyrannical state [71 words]PrashantDec 19, 2011 13:41191539
To Be Secular-Or Not To Be Secular-That is the Question [333 words]M. ToveyDec 19, 2011 17:28191539
Addled brains... [47 words]Amin RiazDec 19, 2011 21:03191539
7Hardly a standard of freedom? [247 words]Peter HallDec 21, 2011 19:05191539
Are you ok Peter? [423 words]Amin RiazDec 21, 2011 20:25191539
4Again you do not read nor understand [182 words]Peter HallDec 22, 2011 18:39191539
4explanations needed [411 words]the Grand Infidel of KaffiristanDec 22, 2011 19:45191539
... IF THIS ISN'T VICTORY! [231 words]Amin RiazDec 22, 2011 19:53191539
Not Interested. [22 words]Amin RiazDec 25, 2011 19:57191539
4Your poor English again [193 words]Peter HallDec 26, 2011 04:02191539
My superiority! [128 words]Amin RiazDec 26, 2011 22:47191539
1Now Thats funny [358 words]Peter HallDec 27, 2011 19:44191539
Why I am superior? [294 words]Amin RiazDec 27, 2011 20:46191539
5Heads We Win Tails You Lose [125 words]DaveDec 8, 2011 11:25191520
2Islam, democracy [26 words]UgriDec 8, 2011 08:17191519
5The higher the Islamist's victory margin the better [283 words]PrashantDec 8, 2011 00:38191511
2The people of Egypt voted against themselves. [75 words]NuritGDec 6, 2011 23:07191501
1Is there a "West" to react? [66 words]Richard H. ShulmanDec 6, 2011 20:29191497
Ah, yes. I feel so much better now. Reason says no more aid ... [118 words]kmanDec 6, 2011 19:55191496
I Wrote to my Senators: No Aid [52 words]DaveDec 6, 2011 16:12191493
4Egypt's Sham Election [60 words]Dan RusenDec 6, 2011 14:32191492
Egypt's Sham Elections [93 words]JonDec 11, 2011 20:44191492
3Flawed Analysis [180 words]KarimDec 7, 2011 00:07191491
6Egypt and more of the same [777 words]dhimmi no moreDec 10, 2011 07:57191491
You have some valid points [15 words]KarimDec 11, 2011 22:19191491
4Egypt and more of the same [531 words]dhimmi no moreDec 13, 2011 09:40191491
1The Hazard of Misreading Egypt [415 words]M. ToveyDec 20, 2011 16:16191491
Egyptians are Arabs [44 words]DEBORAH THE JUDGEDec 28, 2011 21:51191491
1Keep the judge busy [55 words]dhimmi no moreDec 30, 2011 08:12191491
8A lot simpler Solution [11 words]Michael Hanni MorcosDec 6, 2011 13:38191490
Egypt May Not Dominate the M.E. - But It Can Make Things Harder [266 words]M. ToveyDec 6, 2011 12:15191488
Israel as a democracy example [208 words]slayhyDec 17, 2011 15:13191488
9Slayhy, you really are a comedian ! [145 words]Peter HallDec 18, 2011 23:06191488
Remember: Before Israel was Declared a Democracy - It IS a Theocracy [277 words]M. ToveyDec 19, 2011 11:39191488

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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