Slow boil is better

Submitted by Murray Orbuch (United States), Jun 20, 2009 at 08:53

The longer this crisis continues without a clear resolution, the greater the likelihood that the resentments it unleashes will result in an unravelling to the "Islamic Republic". Khamane'i overplayed his hand with the early declaration of Ahmadinejad's victory. He now must find a way to save face (for himself and the regime) and I doubt that he can.

The longer he continues to demean Mousavi and the opposition as riffraff and agents of "Zionists and the CIA" the more complicated he makes matters. If the slow boil continues for a long stretch, non-Islamist forces may have the opportunity (? with foreign help) to finally, albeit carefully, raise their voices and even if Mousavi prevails, it is a Genie he won't be able to return to the bottle. Either way, the power of the Shi'a Divines will no longer be seen as unassailable. Whether or not Obama covertly intervenes, one can only hope that the ill-will Ahmadinejad engendered among Arabs (and Israel) will now be repaid in spades.

This may also present an interesting window to isolate Syria and Hizbullah (as well as Hamas) as their patron goes through the throes of change. One worry though is that the regime may unleash a whirlwind at the hands of Hamas/Hizbullah in an act of desperation with the hopes of rallying the masses against an external enemy.

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