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Related Articles Predicting Iraq's Future
by Daniel Pipes http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2009/07/predicting-iraqs-future
But I think that "Obama's Vietnam" is better applied to another problem of the quartet – Iraq. The stakes are higher in Iraq in terms of prestige, controversy, expectations, implications, lives lost, and money spent. Here's what I expect: First, the American presence in Iraq will wind down faster and with less Iraqi coordination than expected. For an example of what is in store, another article in today's Washington Post, "Iraq Restricts U.S. Forces," explains that "Iraqi leaders increasingly see the [June 30 security] agreement as an opportunity to show their citizens that they are now unequivocally in charge and that their dependence on the U.S. military is minimal and waning." Achieving this goal already has had a major impact on American forces:
Second, as the Obama administration's term of office stretches from months into years, the Iraq war will, willy-nilly, become its war. Failure in Iraq will become its failure. Obama will find himself having to invest in making a success of George W. Bush's Iraq venture. Third, just as Bush could not succeed in Iraq, neither will Obama. Fourth, Bush will get a relative pass from historians, having given Iraq his all. Obama will be pinned more with the failure than Bush. Finally, this could have significant electoral implications in 2010 and especially in 2012. (July 19, 2009 Related Topics: Iraq, US policy receive the latest by email: subscribe to daniel pipes' free mailing list This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL. Reader comments (17) on this item
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