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Iran, Israel, Turkey and the Samson (nuclear) option

Reader comment on item: Thoughts on the P5+1 Negotiations with Tehran
in response to reader comment: Iran Will Eventualy Think Getting American Indulgences Was Not All That Virtuous After All

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Jan 3, 2015 at 15:34

Hi, Tovey

Obama is a dangerous person; but unless he does something completely madcap, such as attempting a putsch, I have largely discounted him. He surrounds himself with advisors, who largely echo his own preconceived notions but are pretty amateurish at foreign policy. The more we focus on him and his, the more we lose the big picture.

It seems clear, that Obama wants to somehow magically reform the Iranians into harmless pawns, then leave them in charge of the Middle East as his henchmen. It's obviously a stupid policy, that will not work. The Iranians, meanwhile, keep stringing him along. This makes the American leader look (to world leaders) like a fool and (to Iranians) a plaything of the Ayatollah. I don't see why they shouldn't play this game forever, for its own sake.

Meanwhile, these Islamic Zoroastrians keep playing with fire (pun intended). They will probably eventually perfect a nuclear weapon, plus delivery system. I don't know how this will pan out. Just conducting a test explosion, whether successful or not, is bound to get the regional powers scurrying into action. The Saudis will likely take delivery of bombs from Pakistan and mount them on their missiles (pointed at Iran AND Israel); the Turks, under their current power-drunk dictator, Erdogan, could do anything. The Egyptians will probably want a bomb of their own; but someone will have to foot the bill and I don't know if there are any takers for that.

The Israelis? My gut feeling is that they will do nothing, waiting until the last minute to exercise the Samson option. If they have ANY sense at all, which I often wonder about, they will enhance that option so they can simultaneously deal not only with the Iranians, but their enemies in Europe, East Asia and North America as well; because when Iran attacks them, the US and its minions, as well as the Russians and Chinese, will be entirely responsible for having allowed it. It would be a supreme travesty of justice, for Israel to let us off the hook on this one.

Israel has many options. It does not have nuclear submarines, nor can it conveniently place its dolphins in distant waters. Conceivably, it could make up for this with clandestine submarine tenders, strategically located. Enhancing its ICBM capacity, to carry heavier loads longer distances, looks like a good option; and this can be supplemented with orbiting bombs. Only a few of these, detonated at high altitude, can drive the great powers all back to the stone age, with perhaps a billion deaths. Stealthily converting commercial airliners into one-way bombers, 9/11-style, is also a possibility; and the Israelis are well-known for their ingenuity: If I can think of these things, they certainly can; and they can implement them.

I think the Iranians will count on Israel not attacking them; and if the Israelis have the sense to develop a formidable stealth option, I don't think Iran will attack them -- at least not in such a way that they can be fingered as the culprits. Meanwhile, they will most probably develop their own "Samson option", improving their own ICBMs, etc. to be able to attack the US. By the time they have those techniques perfected, hopefully, Obama will no longer be in office.

Turkey's role in all this is a mystery. Turkey has a substantial navy, and other conventional forces. There is some mystery about its nuclear capabilities:

The United States plans to upgrade the B61 bombs to the B61-12 and hopes to begin their integration on NATO dual-capable aircraft in 2015, completing the process by 2018. [7] Currently, both U.S. aircraft and some Turkish F16s can carry the B61, however, there is some speculation over whether Turkey still maintains an operational link with the B61s on its territory. According to a former commander of the Turkish Air Force, Turkey's nuclear role in NATO strike plans ended in 1995 when all B61s were removed from national bases and consolidated at the U.S.-operated base at In cirlik. [8] One expert asserts Turkey decertified its dual-capable F16s sometime thereafter for fiscal reasons. [9] Yet Turkey is at least retaining the option to re-establish an operational link in the future, as Ankara released plans in 2014 to procure 100 F35s, which are set to replace existing dual-capable aircraft across Europe. [10] The government purchased its first two F35s in May 2014. [11]
-- http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/turkey/

Turkey is already linked to Iran via Sudan as an intermediate. In places like Gaza and Libya, Turkey provides diplomatic support while the Sudanese smuggle in Iranian and Chinese weapons. With this military infrastructure already in place, Turkey is only a snap decision by Erdogan OR the Iranians away from forming an effective alliance, in which case Israel would immediately be in great peril

.Judges 16:
[30] And Samson said, Let me die with the Philistines. And he bowed himself with all his might; and the house fell upon the lords, and upon all the people that were therein. So the dead which he slew at his death were more than they which he slew in his life.

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