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Reader comment on item: Thoughts on the P5+1 Negotiations with Tehran

Submitted by Comment from Israel (Israel), Nov 27, 2014 at 02:26

The Iranian leadership does not have to be apocalyptically-minded to do everything to acquire the Bomb, they can be rational. If they do not have the Bomb, they will face extinction from one or more of: losing the kinetic war with the Sunni, being impoverished, fading away as their population ages and being destroyed by the West (a la the Shah, Saddam or Gadaffi). If they have the Bomb, they will control the Middle East, they will defeat the Sunni, they will be rich, and they will be valuable allies to the Chinese. The future existence of the Iranian people depends on having the Bomb.

The reason Israel never attacked Iran (even when it was theoretically feasible) was that Israel cannot survive the political firestrorm that follows. Israel would be accused by Obama, Europe, and the Muslim world for being an aggressor; severe economic sanctions would be imposed that Israel could not survive. Israel would be alone under attack from Lebanon, Gaza, Sinai, Jordan, Golan and possible Judea and Samaria, while suffering an energy / arms / food boycott and likely blockade (at least closure of airport, Suez Canal, Tiran straits). The last hope for Israel was the Green Revolution, that Obama extinguished. Since then, Netanyahu has tried to maintain relations with the US hoping to survive the Obama years while rejecting a more rational (in the short range) alliance with Russia and Iran.

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