In March 2004, I took a risk and in a blog titled "Predictions about the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election" stated that "I expect the U.S. presidential election in 2004 will be a Bush blow-out, reminiscent of 1984."
He is the first far-leftist possibly to become the Democratic candidate for U.S. president since George McGovern succeeded at this in 1972. Should Obama be nominated, I expect he will do less badly than McGovern (who won just 17 out of 537 electoral college votes), but he will also do very badly.
Barack Obama - will he fare as badly as George McGovern?
I wrote the above reply yesterday, before the Pennsylvania primary results had come in; today, John Judis published a piece along the same lines, "The Next McGovern?" in which he finds that, "if you look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities." Also, Obama "seems to be acquiring the religious profile of the old McGovern coalition." Judis concludes: "There is nothing wrong with winning over voters who are very liberal and who never attend religious services; but if they begin to become Obama's most fervent base of support, he will have trouble (to say the least) in November." (April 23, 2008)
George McGovern generated excitement in his day, 1972.
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