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Why is ISR not acting now? Variables, Turkey, Syria and Iran

Reader comment on item: Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran
in response to reader comment: Addendum with Clarification Leading to a Second Addendum

Submitted by Michel C. Zala (Switzerland), Feb 29, 2012 at 13:55

I have not quite understood, what you meant, Mr. Tovey, when you mentioned targets of opportunity. Please clarify.

As far as Syria is concerned, from a purely opportunistic viewpoint of the Iranians, this conflict could not have happened at a better moment. For as long as the world's eyes are focused on this ugly repression, the Iranians again win precious time. On top of that, Syria now provides an even better testing ground for the proliferation of weapons to an unstable region with direct impact on ISR's sense of security. Syria even more than Egypt may well fall to Islamistic forces in the end, but this time much more radical and fanatical in nature. While Iran overtly at present supports the Alawites under Assad, they may well play both sides against the middle in order to keep the influence no matter what happens.

Turkey on the other hand, as outlined before by Mr. Pipes, seems to find itself in a dilemma as well. Having manifested clear signs of a re-emerging Islamism and strong rhetoric vs. ISR on one hand, Turkey understands itself nowadays as the regional hegemonial power, which will not feel comfortable with a prolonged conflict at its borders which may well swap over into Turkey proper, which is why they will see any increased influence and engagement by Iran in Syria with a lot of suspicion and unease.

Hence, I assume that Turkey would for purely pragmatic reasons remain factually "neutral" at this point, which does however not mean that they will remain silent, if ISR launches a pre-emptive strike. Having said that, I strongly feel that, should in fact an Arab uprising against ISR on a broad scale occur, fueled by the "aggression", Turkey may well join in very quickly, due to popular opinion.

In conclusion, while the road (mechanism) towards the strike seems quite stringent and logical, following a causal chain of events, the variables appear later in the potential process of escalation to regional if not outright global conflict. As seen throughout history, an "outside" enemy sometimes has the capacity to unify even warring factions. The very last thing the ISRs would like to face is a unified front between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, not to mention the (militarily) weaker nations in between.

In my mind this very hard to calculate risk of massive escalation beyond a two nation conflict between Iran and ISR is the main reason, why ISR is going to wait until the very last possible moment, gather irrefutable evidence and likely issue the mentioned last minute ultimatum.

The first stage of the mentioned crisis mechanism is comparably easy to predict. The second stage offers a ton of variables from the reaction in Iran to the Saudis to the Turks and Egypt, let alone the reaction of Russia, China and the West itself.

One fact remains - only the Iranians have the means and the power to avoid this strike, which may escalate to a local war, which may in turn escalate to a regional war, the latter into outright WWIII. Only the uncertainties of stage II and stage III are preventing the ISRs from pushing the button at this time and I can only hope for all of us, that some intelligent people in Iran (in the true latin sense of the word - the capability to see and understand) grasp this terrible causal chain and stop it soon from being triggered.

Nothing Israel can do here, not the USA, not the UN, not anyone but Iran and Iran alone. We can only hope that their sense of self-preservation and obligation to protect their own people is not overridden by religious dogma and ill-guided feelings of martyrdom and sacrifice. Are they willing to be crippled for generations to come in order to wipe ISR off the map or will the pragmatic faction prevail?

Do they understand that the sheer continuation of their unchecked and uncontrolled nuclear development pushes ISR into the impossible situation of the cornered lion? I have to assume that they do. It is too obvious and logical with a lot of historical evidence - it happened before elsewhere. Thus, why do they push forward nevertheless? What do they have possibly to gain? Why are they cornering the lion, knowing full well, that the consequences are predictable?

I so very much wished to gain insight into the thinking of the Iranian Regime. Just to hear from a reader out of Iran to this, would be great. I invite any Iranian (Mullah, Ayatollah, Government rep etc.) to explain to us, why they are willing to incur such a great risk and hope one of them will have the courage to respond here. Quite actually, I'd like to hear from anyone willing to explain to us, why this regime is doing what it does, seemingly so illogical irrational considering the outlined crisis mechanism.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (49) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Hoorah for Israel [41 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:25193592
PREDICTIONS OF AN ISRAELI STRIKE [95 words]JACQUES HADIDAFeb 17, 2012 16:27193432
1Israel is determined - No, it is a simple, tragic crisis mechanism [1053 words]Michel C.ZalaFeb 15, 2012 12:08193394
3Israel's Plight - A Right to Fight In Spite of the World's Might [345 words]M. ToveyFeb 16, 2012 18:53193394
1Bombing [49 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
NataliyaFeb 13, 2012 15:35193355
And now, US officials blabbing about Israel's plans too [56 words]saraFeb 9, 2012 19:27193255
panetta's unclear language [195 words]mythFeb 9, 2012 12:25193249
2Why Israel Has No Other Choice [243 words]P. SchwartzFeb 7, 2012 22:53193188
2Israel is a Sword [20 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:49193188
1Obama sum of cynicism [385 words]PhilippeFeb 7, 2012 08:08193167
1you think like me [20 words]jackFeb 8, 2012 22:36193167
2An Administration Confused and Cynical at once [388 words]John W McGinleyFeb 6, 2012 10:29193139
2Jewish voting block vastly exaggerated [114 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:24193139
"Why the need to pander to them." [127 words]HarryFeb 7, 2012 10:04193139
1Harry, you miss my point [170 words]saraFeb 7, 2012 20:37193139
Obama Betting on Sanctions [14 words]Tom TrueFeb 28, 2012 12:05193139
Likely that Israel will attack, but unfortunate for the world. [106 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 6, 2012 09:11193138
4to Jon from Euroland [96 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:17193138
1Consequences [122 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 8, 2012 07:08193138
Written words offer wiggle room? How? [17 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
SimonFeb 6, 2012 07:51193136
Not accurate [59 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
JKFeb 6, 2012 07:44193135
Spies. [34 words]Dennis WojciakFeb 6, 2012 04:50193129
2Panetta was told to shoot off his mouth [123 words]Alaska PaulFeb 6, 2012 01:13193120
Do they mean business? [87 words]David W. LincolnFeb 5, 2012 17:57193105
Good Cop-Bad Cop [173 words]Barry BlackFeb 5, 2012 12:00193099
Predicting an Israeli Strike on Iran...What Buffoons [80 words]AnneFeb 5, 2012 06:55193087
1Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran [188 words]JudithFeb 4, 2012 22:41193081
10I find it a bit ludicous [129 words]saraFeb 4, 2012 18:45193065
1Really [48 words]HarryFeb 6, 2012 11:55193065
Well, Harry, that is my point [149 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:50193065
3Israel vs West on Attacking Iran [80 words]Anatoly TsaliovichFeb 4, 2012 18:34193064
2It doesn't make much sense [134 words]StanleyFeb 4, 2012 18:29193063
5An Israeli attack is doubtful [501 words]Ken BesigFeb 4, 2012 17:51193062
Unfortunately, Isreal has no choice. [71 words]DarrellFeb 6, 2012 00:20193062
The Timing For Israel is Critical - Yet the Israeli's Will Not Control It. [108 words]M. ToveyFeb 6, 2012 13:16193062
It is not aboutif, but when ISR will strike [395 words]Stonewall JacksonFeb 16, 2012 12:05193062
4Prisoner's Dilemma [1058 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 17, 2012 14:09193062
Looking for the Regal Reprieve for the Prisoner [469 words]M. ToveyFeb 21, 2012 11:33193062
2Addendum [431 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 23, 2012 10:12193062
2Addendum II [359 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 26, 2012 12:05193062
Addendum with Clarification Leading to a Second Addendum [228 words]M. ToveyFeb 27, 2012 19:22193062
Why is ISR not acting now? Variables, Turkey, Syria and Iran [814 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 29, 2012 13:55193062
2An ISR viewpoint which opens up possibilities [508 words]Michel C. ZalaMar 2, 2012 15:11193062
3The Dilemma - Outstanding Article by Ari Shavit, Haaretz [670 words]StonewallJacksonMar 15, 2012 12:39193062
Wait for it...wait for it... [418 words]M. ToveyMay 24, 2012 18:43193062
Beating The Twelvers Of Iran [15 words]CliffordFeb 4, 2012 15:13193056
1Panetta Predicts [49 words]Nenette GrunbergFeb 4, 2012 14:07193054
3Huh? [104 words]Dan LenardFeb 4, 2012 13:47193051
2This Opinion [101 words]Jay1Feb 4, 2012 13:25193050

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