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bunny rabbits and canaries

Reader comment on item: Decoding the Obama Doctrine
in response to reader comment: The Invectives of the Middle East Culminating in Isaiah 19

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Apr 19, 2015 at 04:06

HI, Tovey

"Doctrine" simply means "teaching": You have yours, I have mine, Daniel has his, Ayatollah Khammeini has his, and Craig Engler has his. Daniel's is the most optimistic: He seems to think we can actually do something to prevent the collapse of life as we know it.

Engler proably has the pulse of today's generation, with his movies. He senses the massive destruction of life coming; and, like you and I, sees the resolution of it in a resurrection of the dead. His resurrection, unfortunately, consists not of new, righteous life; but of undead zombies. Trying to discuss Middle East events, meanwhile, without mentioning religion, is like trying to describe the diet of horses without mentioning hay or grass.

Yes, we have different views concerning the centrality of Turkey in coming events. My latest reading on Turkey is in the article,

Send troops or pay a heavy price, UAE warns Pakistan
April 12, 2015 by yalibnan

which says of recent nearly identical positions by Turkey and Pakistan,

"This is nothing but another chapter of laggard impartial stand," Gargash said, criticising identical views held by Turkey and Iran about the armed conflict in Yemen, as affirmed by the Turkish foreign minister, who had said a political way out of the crisis is the responsibility of Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia... "Tehran seems to be more important to Islamabad and Ankara than the Gulf countries..."

Pakistan has indeed been acting like Turyey's "twin" lately: They spent years backing the Taliban, just as Turkey spent years backing Al Nusra, ISIL and related terrorist groups; both are ostensibly "major allies" of the US, and both pretend to be fighting "terrorism". TheTurks' main concern is the Kurds, and the Pakis' main concern is India; and of course, there is a historical difference between the two: The Turks were masters of the Ottoman Empire while the Pakis were masters of the contemporary Mughal Empire.That harkens back to the Seventeent Century, when both were at their apex; and when, lo and behold, Persia was also at its height, nestled between them. That also was a time when the Arabs were practically dhimmis.

Are we headed back to the Seventeenth Century? No; if one believes Ezekiel 38-38, a time is coming when the former Ottoman Empire, INCLUDING Libya and Sudan, PLUS the former Persian Empire will collectively attack Israel. There is no need for Russia to be part of such a coalition, nor does the Bible mention them; so frankly, I pay little attention to them.

What concerns me at the moment, is that:

  1. Turkey, Pakistan and even the US are all drooling over getting a piece of the action when Iran takes off the shackles of sanctions and starts peddling its wares, and
  2. Iran is still the focus of attention, and the party most likely to initiate an attack on Israel.

If the world looks at Iran as the center of things, and the Bible looks at Turkey (or even, as you see things, Russia), then something obviously has to change between now and those events; and the most obvious change in my mind is that Iran will be humbled -- probably by Israel.

Meanwhile, the world is continuing to break apart from the "unipolar" situation of the early naughties that Mr. Putin was so concerned about, to what seems to be heading for an "every man for himself" anarchy. A couple of years ago, I used to view the US, along with its NATO and other allies and even more, as an unstoppable juggernaut. Now I see major power blocs as (1) the US, (2) Europe (focused on Germany), (3) Russia, (4) China, (5) Britain and former dominions, (6) Japan-Korea-Taiwan, (7) India, and dozens of smaller blocs including those centered on Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In Biblical terms, the "iron mixed with clay" of Daniel 7 is beginning to crumble. The latest bloc I've come up with is that centered on the UK, which has not been pulling together with the rest of Europe.

Many decisive events seem to be on the plate for the coming month or two. The most obvious to me, is the apparent total rejection of the Lausanne agreement by Iran. Note the following picture:

http://yalibnan.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/down-with-USA-sign-in-Iran-300x201.jpg

This is not a picture from bygone days, under the rule of Achmadinejad; this is from yesterday, in Tehran. Obama may have deluded himself that Iran has somehow turned over a new leaf; but anyone with eyes to see can tell when the Ayatollah is pulling up his kilt and mooning us.

Here's a tidbit about the role of "superpowers" in the Middle East:

"U.S. citizens are having to flee Yemen any way they can, because the Obama administration won't organize an evacuation operation to get them out."
-- http://megynkelly.us/136897/yemen-as-navy-marines-languish-nearby-ground-zero-for-american-collapse-video/

That shows you how the US is faring. As for the Russians, They are threatening to deliver the S-300 missile defense system to Iran -- something they have threatened to do for years, but have held back to maintain good relations with Israel. The S-300 is no longer state-of-the-art: Greece has had them since the 1990s, and Israel has flown joint exercises with the Greeks against them. It's also rumored that the Russians at the moment do not have them available to deliver to Tehran; so the timing of Russia's announcement that it will deliver them should be considered more as a gauge of Russian politics than as a military threat.

Why did the Russians announce this now, during the Obama-Netanyahu feud? In my mind, it is to take sides in the feud, on the side of Obama -- perhaps in order to get the same sort of sanctions relief for Russia that Obama is foolishly offering Iran.

Whatever the reasons, Russia's policy in the Middle East is more manly than Obama's; but this is like comparing the courage of a canary to a bunny rabbit. The real players in the Middle East are not the superpowers; but the Iranians, the Egyptians, the GCC and Da'esh.

Submitting....

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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