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Be careful of budiling expectations on a selective reading of history Mr. Pipes

Reader comment on item: My Peace Plan: An Israeli Victory

Submitted by Konstnatinos Travlos (United States), May 1, 2010 at 23:49

Mr. Pipes be carefull of extracting conclusions from a selective reading of history and from just succesfull cases instances of your conditions. That is choosing on the dependent variable and a logical and scientifc fallacy.

Compete Victory can sometimes end succesfully a enduring rivalry (like the one Israel and the Palestinians, or Israel and the Arab states hae) but they seldom do. If you look at large-n studies of rivalry termination you will find that your optimistic (and I am afraid vague) expectation may be teneous. Political shocks in one or the otehr side do end rivalries more often then total victories, and most of the time the other side has a hard time bringing about those shocks.

Here is a suggested literature if you are interested

Paul F. Diehl and Gary Goertz "War and Peace in Interantional Rivalry", 2001 Michigan University Press

Michael P.Colaresi, Karen Rasler and William R.Thompson "Strategic Rivalries in World Politics", Cambridge University Press 2007

Klein, Diehl and Goertz 2006,Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, no 3 pp 331-348

  • The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks
    Gary Goertz and Paul F. Diehl
    American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 1 (Feb., 1995), pp. 30-52
  • Measuring Rivalry Termination, 1816-1992

  • D. Scott Bennett
    The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 2 (Apr., 1997), pp. 227-254
  • if you have access to J-Stor, or to a university library with access to J-Stor there is a rich slew of empirical, large-n (as opposed to 1 or two case studies) tests of hypotheses of rivalry termination. Even if you do not agree with the theories behid them, the emprical story should be of interest to you, and every Israeli.

    With Respect

    K.Travlos


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    Reader comments (147) on this item

    Title Commenter Date Thread
    Former Israeli MK agrees with your peace plan via victory in a Haaretz opinion piece [48 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    PezDispenserOct 27, 2016 15:46233665
    1Dr. Pipes is correct- Defeat these 2 year old ingrates completely !!! [119 words]Don RosenbergSep 16, 2011 13:09189360
    And after victory? [213 words]Samuel MossmanOct 3, 2010 09:37178926
    Loss of National Identity - An Identity Never to be Achieved By 'Palestinian' Statehood Under Current Circumstances [639 words]M. ToveyNov 8, 2010 17:24178926
    1peace plan [141 words]car313Jun 13, 2010 07:08174348
    Interesting [25 words]Bita XJun 1, 2010 01:00173608
    Certum est Quod Certum Reddi Potest - Inevitablity of a Time in History - Israeli Victory [713 words]M. ToveyMay 26, 2010 16:34173428
    2San Remo 1922 [127 words]JohnnyMay 24, 2010 02:09173290
    1Israel's Victory [271 words]AK SINGHMay 23, 2010 23:15173277
    1The Time of Israeli Victory Approaches - But Not Without Remembering Who Gives Them Victory [570 words]M. ToveyMay 19, 2010 16:56173115
    Peace Plan [13 words]Free SpeechMay 19, 2010 14:33173100
    Clarification [22 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    troirMay 18, 2010 11:06172971
    For the sake of Friends [553 words]Jay1May 13, 2010 21:44172676
    1My peace plan [170 words]Sandra L. JohnsonMay 11, 2010 15:15172578
    1In war, there is no substitute for victory [28 words]Robert BendaMay 10, 2010 18:52172530
    1Islamic territorial claim [429 words]M MetcalfMay 10, 2010 18:39172529
    Dr. Pipes' Peace plan for Israel [104 words]Carmen Waggoner, Ph.D.May 10, 2010 16:11172522
    1brilliant [11 words]stan perlovMay 10, 2010 15:25172521
    What is Israel fighting for? [170 words]ItamarMay 10, 2010 13:53172513
    'My Israeli Peace Plan by Daniel Pipes" [65 words]VigilantMay 10, 2010 12:26172505
    Congratulations Mr. Pipes for Z Street PRIZE [361 words]ThomasMay 10, 2010 11:58172500
    My Peace Plan [59 words]Gabriella La MarcaMay 10, 2010 08:30172491
    Victory depends on Faith in G*D [190 words]Clifford FelderMay 10, 2010 07:51172489
    General Montecuccoli -from 'My peace plan for an Israeli victory" [34 words]Francesca G.K.May 9, 2010 13:51172467
    2THE PALESTINIANS BELONG IN OTHER ARAB STATES [199 words]Ilene RichmanMay 7, 2010 10:11172347
    almost forgotten, the islamist motivation [50 words]mythMay 7, 2010 07:13172342
    Islamists must be defeated worldwide for Israel to defeat her enemies? [23 words]ThomasMay 10, 2010 12:02172342
    Israel's first step [23 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    mythMay 7, 2010 07:10172341
    Victory [40 words]Luka SerbMay 6, 2010 11:40172297
    It's so simple [59 words]Richard LapinMay 6, 2010 11:37172296
    1Mr. Pipes is right and general Barak is wrong although he should have known better! [115 words]Isaac HaskiyaMay 6, 2010 06:44172278
    Can I ask you something [126 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    Ash LondonMay 5, 2010 17:54172234
    friendship not powerful in politics [165 words]mythMay 7, 2010 05:48172234
    How offensive [15 words]pdmMay 5, 2010 10:23172206
    Zero Tolerance [182 words]bob stogdillMay 4, 2010 20:07172149
    1How do we get there? [64 words]HouyhnhnmMay 4, 2010 16:28172138
    West Bank Arabs pawn of Islam [191 words]PeriMay 3, 2010 11:55172042
    all the israel muslim neighbours must go for nuke [38 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    syed mohammad aliMay 3, 2010 11:27172038
    1what it requires and what defeat looks like [140 words]mythMay 2, 2010 17:32172015
    the third vision, keep Israel immature, the curtain-of-common-sense. [169 words]mythMay 2, 2010 08:35172001
    MYTH, I sympathize with all your comments in this article. [8 words]ThomasMay 10, 2010 12:20172001
    reply [154 words]Joe Six-PackMay 2, 2010 08:07171999
    More reply to Dr. Pipes [236 words]Debanjan BanerjeeMay 2, 2010 02:08171989
    Be careful of budiling expectations on a selective reading of history Mr. Pipes [286 words]Konstnatinos TravlosMay 1, 2010 23:49171985
    Response to Dr. Pipes [195 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    Debanjan BanerjeeMay 1, 2010 15:39171976
    Continuing on the current topic [349 words]Debanjan BanerjeeMay 2, 2010 01:55171976
    Jewish State [126 words]yuval Brandstetter MDMay 2, 2010 15:34171976
    How in the US rejection of OIL? [353 words]SvetMay 4, 2010 00:11171976
    1Dead end? not on your life [223 words]yuval Brandstetter MDMay 7, 2010 10:40171976
    That's nice but a little short on "how" and "what" [50 words]Paul FreedmanMay 1, 2010 15:15171973
    The Great Oil War (1973-Present) and how it can be won [264 words]G MarcusMay 1, 2010 06:25171962
    West Bank Arabs face only 2 real options: (a) Hamas rule, (b) Jordanian rule [247 words]G MarcusMay 1, 2010 05:14171961
    There never was a 2-state solution, but a bridge to a 1-state solution [156 words]G MarcusMay 1, 2010 05:11171960
    Entire conflict explained in less than 20 lines [192 words]G MarcusMay 1, 2010 05:07171959
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    Define Victory [52 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    Jim PrichardApr 30, 2010 17:12171931
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    Moral Dimension [181 words]Edward HalperApr 30, 2010 12:19171915
    better demonstrate morality by victory [221 words]mythMay 3, 2010 05:24171915
    Might makes right? [175 words]Edward HalperMay 4, 2010 12:05171915
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    Okay then.. [15 words]Bita XJun 1, 2010 01:18171915
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    history [133 words]IdiotApr 30, 2010 10:27171908
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    w/response from Daniel Pipes
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    I Ask The Same Question [36 words]Mark D.Apr 30, 2010 21:21171873
    So you say waging a Victorious War by Israel is the Answer....? But there will NO PEACE until the end... [1143 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    Nicholas (Nick) J PAPADOPOULOSApr 29, 2010 18:15171872
    My Peace Plan: An Israeli Victory [36 words]William BatleyApr 29, 2010 17:57171871
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    DANIEL PIPES MAKES A RARE ERROR [26 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    ALANApr 29, 2010 16:45171867
    Sharon's policies between 2001-2003 [111 words]PezDispenserApr 29, 2010 16:41171866
    YOU ARE SO RIGHT!!! [54 words]rae sharfmanApr 29, 2010 16:25171865
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    I Have The Same Questions [126 words]Mark D.Apr 30, 2010 21:46171864
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    w/response from Daniel Pipes
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    Excellent Analysis [148 words]Andrew StunichApr 29, 2010 12:22171838
    Too Lates Wie Gets Too Schmart [167 words]BlackspeareApr 29, 2010 12:12171837
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    Victory - Decisive and Unambiguous [201 words]WSmithApr 29, 2010 11:55171835
    You don't explain anything or give any answers [273 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    SaidApr 29, 2010 11:30171833
    Said is mistaken [87 words]KerryMay 2, 2010 07:29171833
    Man does not live by bread alone [281 words]ptMay 3, 2010 04:00171833
    To Mr Pipes [271 words]SaidMay 3, 2010 09:00171833
    We can hope [44 words]Godfrey deBouillonMay 5, 2010 10:04171833
    'The Day After'? [375 words]
    w/response from Daniel Pipes
    Fred SchlomkaMay 17, 2010 10:03171833
    The Day After - continued [290 words]Fred SchlomkaMay 24, 2010 00:01171833

    Comment on this item

    Mark my comment as a response to Be careful of budiling expectations on a selective reading of history Mr. Pipes by Konstnatinos Travlos

    Email me if someone replies to my comment

    Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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