The Latest about Mosul Dam

This weblog updates my article "Saddam's Damn Dam [i.e., The Mosul Dam], published today.

In a bizarre miniature version of the Mosul Dam, Steven Erlanger reported just yesterday in "Gaza's Reflection in a Foul Threat," about problems in Gaza:

The embankment around a sewage reservoir collapsed on March 27, 2007, flooding Umm al Nasser in the northern part of Gaza.

Fahmi al-Abrak, 70, was at home on March 27 when a lagoon of human waste broke through its sand embankment and hurtled downhill, inundating this poor village of Bedouins in northern Gaza. "It rose to here in 15 seconds," he said, pointing to a discolored line on the walls, four feet above ground. Five people died, drowned in the wave of waste, along with scores of goats, sheep and chickens. Nearly 1,000 people had to be taken out of the village. Now, Mr. Abrak said, "I'm afraid to go to sleep at night."

The lagoon disaster seemed a sort of metaphor for Gaza ­ overcrowded, lacking in resources, coping with makeshift answers to long-term problems. But the lagoon, which held more than 150,000 cubic yards, is dwarfed by the huge lake of sewage it was built to reduce. That lake, which itself holds sewage overflow, now contains almost four million cubic yards of water and human waste, covering about 100 acres, and it is again creeping close to the danger point. Its sand embankment was reinforced this summer, and two more outlet ponds have been dug in the sand. But more waste enters daily than is discharged, the lake is only six feet below the embankment and the winter rains are coming. ...

If the lake overflowed, [Monther I. Shoblak, director of the Gaza Emergency Water Project for the Palestinian Authority's water utility] said, "it would be a tsunami of waste." In three seconds, he estimated, more than 800 homes and 10,000 people would be hit by a wave up to six yards high, and then the wave would return. Oxfam estimates that 50,000 people could be displaced and 200,000 affected.

(November 7, 2007)

Dec. 17, 2007 update: A truck bomb has blown up about 1 kilometer away from the Mosul Dam, killing one policeman, injuring a second, and damaging a section of the main access bridge connecting the dam's two shores, announced Brigadier-General Abdul-Kareem al-Jubouri, the commander of police operations in northern Nineveh province. According to Reuters, "Jubouri said the bomber parked his truck near the bridge, telling police that it had broken down and that he need to fetch a tow truck. Shortly after he left the scene it detonated."

This attack comes just two days later after a report in the Iraqi newspaper Azzaman (edited by Saad Albazzaz) titled "Armed group wants to blow up Mosul Dam":

Security officials say scores of armed men have entered the Province of Nineveh with orders to detonate Mosul Dam. … "Some 250 armed men have entered Nineveh Province with the aim of detonating the Mosul Dam," one source said. Another source said information was based on intelligence tips passed to provincial authorities recently. "The men were trained in Pakistan," the source added. … The government is reported to have sent more reinforcements to the area.

Comments: (1) What was the purpose of this exercise? A shot across the bow, an announcement of intentions? But why give a warning?

(2) Given the parlous state of the Mosul Dam, as I detailed in a recent column this news is particularly menacing. At a time when the the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers finds the current probability of failure to be "exceptionally high," the U.S. government is setting itself up for a massive coup of bad publicity by closely associating with a potential disaster waiting to happen.

(3) If it's high time to make it clear to all concerned that the Mosul Dam is an Iraqi problem, not an American one, that is not at all the trend. On Nov. 29, the U.S. Air Force Center for Engineering and the Environment announced it had contracted Versar Inc. to repair Mosul Dam for $320,000 by engaging in an "enhanced grouting" program with geotechnical support. This political mistake could do immense and lasting damage to the American reputation worldwide.

Dec. 18, 2007 update: Some additional details on the bombing, from a Los Angeles Times report:

Syrian trucks coming from the northern Iraqi border use the bridge to transport gasoline and other goods, locals said. U.S. forces and Iraqi security forces also use the bridge. Witnesses said the bomber left the truck on the bridge, pretending it broke down. Police at a checkpoint were suspicious and went to check his documents. As the man proceeded to another checkpoint the bomb went off. Police arrested him, according to reports from the scene.

U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling , commander of Multi-National Division - North.

Dec. 20, 2007 update: U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, commander of Multi-National Division – North, had said that Al-Qaeda in Iraq can still carry out attacks against infrastructure projects such as bridges, reports the Associated Press:

"You know, there are going to be continued spectacular attacks," he said when asked about the bombing of a bridge across Mosul dam on Monday. … "We have some intelligence that says it was part of a bigger plot. There is some intelligence that they may have wanted to cut off that side of the river to make safe havens," Hertling said. "There are some indications that they wanted to close that route because it is used by coalition forces." Hertling added: "I personally think it is an additional indicator that these people who are trying to disrupt the people of Iraq will do anything to screw up the people of Iraq."

Feb. 20, 2008 update: Khidhr Domle paraphrases Nineveh Deputy Governor Khasraw Goran in the Kurdish Globe on the possibility of the Mosul Dam's collapse. Goran considers this to have become

a serious problem. He said a conference was held in Istanbul with the participation of the Iraqi Minister of Water Recourses, an advisor representing the Iraqi Prime Minister, the Nineveh Deputy, and a number of academics. Conference members concluded that repairing the dam would take three to four years as well as an allocation of $1 million (USD).

Comment: $1 million sounds a bit on the cheap side to me.

May 1, 2008 update: The International Medical Corps (which calls itself "a global, humanitarian, nonprofit organization dedicated to saving lives and relieving suffering through health care training and relief and development programs") is engaged in a multi-month initiative "to draw up a crisis plan for the Mosul dam."

Oct. 19, 2008 update: An elusive news report, "Water resources: filling of al-Mosul dam about to end," translated from As-Sabah newspaper (I could not locate the original) reads in full as follows:

Works of filling al-Mosul dam with cement materials are about to end within its punctuated dates implemented by private cadres of the State Directorate of Dams and Treasures at Water Resources Ministry. The cadres are round-the-clock working to ensure that the dam not be fall down due to the continuous looseness of its bases. The financial allocations reached to ID14 billions [=US$12.1 million] for the current year, while the directorate cadres had ended the first and second phases of geophysics surveys in the region with ID300 millions [=US$260,000].

Dec. 22, 2008 update: Dams break not just in Gaza but also in the United States. The breach took place at an earthen dam holding back a 40-acre retention pond used by the Tennessee Valley Authority, "releasing a frigid mix of water and ash that flooded as many as 10 homes and put hundreds of acres of rural land under water."

June 4, 2009 update: In a rare news report to acknowledge the fragility of the Mosul Dam, Heath Druzin of Stars and Stripes writes that "Forces put aside differences to protect vital dam: Iraqi, Kurdish troops to work together to secure structure."

Commanders with the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga, two forces often at odds in northern Iraq, have come to an agreement on sharing responsibilities for the protection of a vital dam outside Mosul in Ninevah province, according to the U.S. military. "Over the past few days, leaders from the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army came together in a joint effort to ease tensions and develop a peaceful solution," said Brig. Gen. Robert Brown, deputy commanding general of Multi-National Division—North.

Brown believes that the dam agreement has larger implications: "Two days ago there was a temporary solution, but through a joint effort, and extensive communication, it has evolved into a permanent solution that could become the model for the rest of Iraq with regards to solving provincial issues in the disputed areas. What has occurred is a true success."