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Prediction: Russia will intervene in Iran

Reader comment on item: The Revolt in Iran Lacks Leadership

Submitted by Dave (United States), Dec 14, 2022 at 13:39

I actually hope that I'm wrong about this, but I can see a parallel between Syria and Iran. Both countries are Russian allies; Iran is actually far more valuable for its drones, rockets, resources and geographical weight. Just as in Syria, Iran has an unpopular regime that could be toppled should nature take its course, so Russia may conclude that the Mullahs need their direct support, and the Mullahs may just become desperate enough to agree.
Luckily, Russia's military is depleted and the Ukraine adventure is a major distraction. Should that situation change, or should Russia decide to take the plunge anyway, don't be surprised if the Russia military establishes a significant presence in Iran and helps with slaughtering the opposition. NATO hasn't directly intervened in Ukraine, so Putin may just conclude that it's a low risk gamble.
The best way to prevent such a scenario is for the protesters to somehow emerge victorious, but that would probably require organizing credible leadership as indicated above, and far stronger US involvement.


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