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Russia vs. Turkey

Reader comment on item: Poll: Israelis Want Victory, Preferably without Paying the Price

Submitted by Robert (United States), Jun 22, 2021 at 11:27

It is implicitly assumed that the important front in Israel's for Victory is between Israel and Gaza. I proposes that it is not. That front where the battles for Victory will occur are already on the Israel Syria front. And that the way to judge Strategic matters is to look for Third Parties to the battles for Victory.

In the case of Gaza we have Egypt, which will for the foreseeable future oppose all forms of the Muslim brotherhood, and Hamas which governs Gaza is an offshoot of the Brotherhood.

Regarding Syria, Iran Turkey, and Russia are physically there already. Ideologically this front represents Shia, Sunny, and Christian elements. Moscow, one must recall, proclaimed itself to be the New Jerusalem after the collapse of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks a long time ago.

Although non of these imperial aspirants are democracies, which Biden would wish to support, someone like Kissinger would anticipate that Russia is most like to emerge as an ally of Israel after Putin's successors assume power in the Kremlin.

Even when Erdogan is replaced by age his successor is not likely to become a Kemalist able to reverse Erdogan's Islamisation of former Secular Turkey.

In addition, Israel has more than 1,000,000 or so Russian-speaking secular Israel Jews from the former Soviet Union whom Putin recognized as "one of us" at least euphemistically. Anti-semitism in Russia is legally prohibited and Putin is close to the Jewish community in Russia. Furthermore, the Start-Up Nation (Israel) is thereby in a unique position to help the talented Russians get out of the one-product national economy, which is Oil & Gas (Energy).

In summary I forecast that after Putin, Russia will join the (Christian) Western European as its Federation becomes more Democratic and the Duma (Parliament) becomes a stronger institution. Of course, as the son of Richard Pipes, you are in an ideal situation to forecast how Russia is to evolve.

Russia already wishes to re-build war-ravaged Syria, a great economic opportunity for it. But in that regard it has 2 on the ground competitors, Iran and Turkey.

It appears that Trump's administration was right - it is through economics, rebuilding the life of Muslim Arabs such as Palestinians by which Peace, and therefore, Victory, will be achieved. Ironically, although this was and is a Capitalist Republican position, it is also one which the one who died in 1883 would recognize as Marxist.

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