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Netanyahu is not worried and for good reason...

Reader comment on item: Anticipating Trump's "Deal of the Century"

Submitted by Raul Marks, Apr 10, 2019 at 21:19

Dr Pipes, I believe you have made logical conclusions based on the information at hand. But as we know, Trump is not your typical president. The information at hand, may in fact be completely wrong simply as a tool to keep all parties on their toes. Here is my reasoning:

1) The Trump-Netanyahu bromance is stronger than any in recent memory. It is inconceivable that Netyanhu would behave as such if Trump was proposing a deal bad for Israel. Unless, Netanyahu is also in the dark about the plan. But given how close the relations are, and the gravitas of such a plan, there is no way that Netanyahu isn't at least informed of the plan's formulation, if not a key architect of it himself.

2) All of the parties involved in the formulation of the plan are reliable Zionists: Trump ("most pro-Israel President" and the first President to have Jewish grandchildren), Greenblatt, Kushner, Friedman...none of them are "Israel doves". Could they be expected to create a plan that would harm Israel?

3) The Palestinians have already said they reject the plan and don't view the US as an "honest broker". Even if the plan is a good one for them, how do they maintain face and all of a sudden accept it?

4) If the plan is so good for the PA and they accept, is there reason to believe Netanyahu will just accept it? Trump doesn't have leverage...what would he do? Cancel the billion dollar aid to Israel? He can't do that, because that is Congress' mandate. Cancel the F-35 orders? He can't do that because that will hurt Lockheed-Martin and kill jobs and his main campaign slogan. Move the embassy back to Tel Aviv? He can't do that because its logistically impossible as the new embassy is already under construction.

The deal will most likely be something like this:

1) Israel gets a Jerusalem embassy. Check
2) Israel gets the Golan. Check
3) Israel gets to annex as much of the West Bank as needed for natural population growth.
4) A nebulous reference to some semi-autonomous Palestinian entity on lands in the distant future pending Israeli criteria are met
5) Palestinian access but no control/soverignty in any part of Jerusalem. Abu Dis may be suitable for a "capital" of sorts, "if the Palestinians choose".
6) Some sort of joint-Arab machinery to grant Palestinians economic and developmental opportunities. Would be led by the rich Gulf nation of KSA, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, etc.
7) In conclusion, both outcomes that Israel dislikes would be avoided (1-state solution and 2-state solution) to be replaced instead by Israel and a PA that is essentially a protectorate of the rich Gulf Nations.

The only question is, will the Gulf nations agree? If so, for how long? What happens when the Iranian situation is resolved? Will the Gulf nations continue their links with Israel?


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