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The downing of the plane was in Erdogan

Reader comment on item: Will Turks Accept the Election Results?
in response to reader comment: Military behind the downing of Russian Bomber?

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Dec 2, 2015 at 06:49

So far, all the fallout from the shooting down of the Russian plane & helicopter have worked to Turkey's advantage:

  1. NATO has been blackmailed into publicly standing behind Turkey
  2. Erdogan's image among Turks is no doubt enhanced (Great men have great enemies)
  3. With Russia's escalation and Western reaction, the conflict promises to go on indefinitely -- giving Erdogan contiuning leverage over Europe by his control of the refugee stream
  4. ISIS is secure from genuine Western attack, because its main backer, Turkey, is secure from NATO reprisal for its help to the Caliphate (through the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, if the Jarabulus corridor gets compromised. If it weren't for ISIS, Obama would entirely ignore Turkey

I don't think Erdogan was at all happy, about Mr. Obama's playing footsie with Iran in the Nuclear Weapons deal. With the Russians pressing their advantage, trying to pull the US President into an alliance with them in Syria, there was danger of the two great powers striking a deal over Assad and ignoring Turkey. That wouldn've been devastating to the would-be "Sultan", who needs to continually beat war drums in order to rally the Turks to his side.

At the moment, Russia enjoys a propaganda edge, in ostensibly fighting the monstrous Caliphate (though actually, 90% of their effort has been against Turkish interests in Syria). Within a few months, though, memories of the Paris attacks, etc. will fade, and the world will forget about Russia's escalation and entanglement in Syria -- an entanglement whose purpose is to prop up an unpopular regime for their own strategic interests. The parallel to Vietnam can't be ignored: In the long run, Russia will lose and Turkey will win.

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