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How can you be so sure that Assad will lose?

Reader comment on item: Wait Out the War in Syria

Submitted by Henk Twerda (Netherlands), Aug 21, 2012 at 05:49

I agree fully with your advice not to help the rebels, but how can you be so sure that Assad loses? Perhaps Assad can win through his chemical weapons. There is beside the Alawi's also a twelver Shi'ite minority in Syria. Hezbollah's forces can help Assad and that (twelver) Shi'ite coreligionists.

Ironically if Syria falls apart, an Alawi state in the coastal region might become a future ally of Israel. So I think, that after a fall of Assad in Damascus, the preservation of such an Alawi state is in the interest of the west.

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