The Future of Kadima

by Daniel Pipes
Tue, 21 Nov 2006

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Question asked of Jerusalem Post columnists: "Exactly one year ago former prime minister Ariel Sharon announced that he was quitting the Likud and forming a new political party - Kadima (forward in Hebrew). Despite Sharon's stroke, Ehud Olmert still led Kadima to victory in the elections by winning 29 mandates. One year later, the future of Kadima is uncertain. Olmert's popularity is at an all-time low. Will the party fade into oblivion or continue to play a major role in Israeli politics?" For all replies, see "Burning Issues #13: Kadima?"

A year ago, I placed Kadima in the tradition of Israeli third-way parties such as Dash, Centre, Yisrael Acheret, Shinui, and Ha'olam Hazeh – parties that flare and then disappear almost without a trace. I predicted that Kadima would "(1) fall about as abruptly as it has arisen and (2) leave behind a meager legacy."

When Ariel Sharon physically collapsed in early January, I jumped the gun, writing that "If Sharon's career is now over, so is Kadima's." In fact, Olmert impressively kept the party going. With Kadima's electoral success in late March, I acknowledged that it held together "significantly better than I expected," adding that "I continue to see it as a transient party." In early September, I hazarded that "Kadima's name will not be on the ballot when the next Israeli national elections take place."

My views remain in this mode: Kadima remains a basically self-contradictory personal vehicle of its founder, Ariel Sharon, and therefore will not last long. That this incoherent party now heads an incoherent coalition will not permit it to escape this fate. (November 21, 2006)

Related Topics: Israel

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Reader comments on this weblog entry

Title	By	Date
Kadima is a party of hope [81 words]	jon purizhansky	Nov 26, 2006 07:45
↔ The Real Hope For Kadima [31 words]	Stuart Bliwas	Nov 28, 2006 15:03
The Kadima Paradox [161 words]	Moshe	Nov 23, 2006 14:59
Self preservation drives out wooly mindedness [125 words]	David W. Lincoln	Nov 21, 2006 20:40
Kadima will garner the most votes in the foreseeable future [76 words]	Mark James	Nov 21, 2006 17:11
↔ Respecfully Disagree [55 words]	Stuart Bliwas	Nov 21, 2006 19:41

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