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power of predictions

Reader comment on item: Iran's Nuclear Buildup and American Irrelevance
in response to reader comment: Soft power vs hard power

Submitted by myth (Germany), Mar 5, 2014 at 10:44

Sara, what the West is entirely lacking is the power of predicting upcoming events. Every time one makes a prediction that comes true, one gains power. You are right, sometimes it takes hard power to force reality into the predicted shape.

I see an easier approach. It is called anticipation. Iran's diplomatic offers were predictable for that was their only option. The coming of Rouhani rang bells only the West did not hear that.

The West these days always reacts, it never anticipates. While it does, the EU, NATO, take days to merely schedule a meeting while Putin sends troops to the Crimea within hours. We're talking moving 15 or so vs 15000 people into one place. The West is late.

In the case of Iran the West should anticipate an Israeli strike rather than stop it. From a standpoint of power the West should anticipate it, talk about it now, for the sake of anticipation alone. The West's implicit message today is that we somehow expect the Iranians to go nuclear no matter what. That is a prediction. The implicit message the West should communicate should be that we expect Israel to knock out Iran's nuclear faciliites no matter what.

Submitting....

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