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It gets worse before it gets better

Reader comment on item: Expert predicts more violence in Gaza

Submitted by Boris (United States), Sep 30, 2005 at 22:05

I respectfully disagree with Dr. Pipes on this topic. I don't see the disengagement as a sign of concession or encouragement to terrorists. I don't think we should care much about how Hamas and their freinds feel or what do they think about Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. If they feel encouraged to continue their jihad - good luck. I think disengagement has changed a fundamental nature of this war - from internal insurgency in the occupied territory to a conflict between two separate administrative entities.

To me, this aspect makes all the difference. Americans say: "if you break it - you own it". Israel decided to stop owning the land of Gaza. If they don't own it, they don't have to fix it. Yes, palestinians are thirsty for more. Yes, they will launch more attacks hoping to gain more concessions. To me it look more like a trap for palestinians. This is a different ballgame. This is no longer a guerilla war in the occupied land. This is a war between two countries - the State Israel and de-facto the State of Gaza. Palestinians will do everything to avoid declaration of the new state - this act will automatically put them in the state of the official war between two independent nations, which palestinians will inevitably lose.

You may notice a very interesting trend in the modern conflicts in the Middle East - wars between states are no longer in fashion. Islamic nations after their failures in 1949, 1956, 1967 and 1973 clearly understood that they cannot win battles conducted on behalf of their governments. Their only chance is to win on behalf of their religion, where they can get some sympathy and support under a slogan of religious freedom. Israel is trying to turn the conflict back to the conflict between states. They are trying to clearly define and demonstrate who specifically their enemy is - not an amorphic group of islamic freedom fighters, but rather specific country with their specific leaders. Think it is very wise, although it may get worse before it gets better.
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