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Great analysis but there are other players/scenarios to be considered

Reader comment on item: After an Israeli Strike on Iran
in response to reader comment: After an Israeli Strike on Iran

Submitted by Yusuf in Obamastan (United States), Jun 27, 2012 at 01:29

There are so many confounding factors in this scenario. One example is how much can and will be done via cyber war? Covert war? An Israeli overt military strike may, after the first several hours or over the next couple of days, result in, at the very least a mobilization by its enemies. To wit: Hezbolla from the north with Harrasing rocket fire, Hamas and other islamists from Gaza doing the same. Israeli Arabs demonstrating in support of Islam by blocking roads, engaging in arson, sabotage, and other acts of terror. These would impede Israeli mobilization of reserves and commerce. Can Israel handle a 1948 scenario of being attacked by all sides but carry out sufficiently decisive action quickly emerging victorious as in 1967?

The EU, Russian and China would beg Israel to stop. They likely will think short-term, blame Israel, and would gladly sacrifice Israel for cheap oil. And place embargoes after the leftist/Muslim in the EU demands it. I would expect Obama to appease Iran and to side with the EU and also not retaliate for Iranian action against US interests and to try to stop hostilities.

Israel can't afford a prolonged war with Iran or shorter range incoming missiles or acts of sabotage by its Arab citizens.Or a follow up war of attrition against it. These would distrupt the economy and tourism. Thus I think Israel's first strike against Iran has to be extremely decisive with further uncharacteristically decisive action to quickly end any Islamic dreams, from different geographic locations, of Israel's demise. Israel has not acted decisively since 1967. And this has whetted the apetites of its enemies. But can Israel act decisively enough to break the heart of Iran and its allies as well as to stun, via shock and awe, the hostile EU into relative neutrality?

What will be the responses of Turkey, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, the Israeli Left and Syria? Probably chaotic and incoherent responses. Will Israel also use war to move into parts of the Sinai (to better prepare for/deter a future war from the MB) or cut off water, electricity and the artificial supply chain to Gaza? Thus in a few days neutralizing the chronic Gaza problem but also alienating international supporters of Gaza? These are wild cards. But the biggest unknown of all is what has God planned?

In the aftermath of an all out Middle East war there will be a new clarity and likely a new reality beyond the Middle East. And the silliness and tensions of the present unstable messy paradigm and era of wishful thinking will be over.


Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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Reader comments (30) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Further ramifications of Israeli attack [169 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Kim HannaFeb 18, 2013 07:48203602
Turkey moving forward [128 words]KimJul 27, 2014 07:30203602
Insanity of an attack by Israel [126 words]kimFeb 17, 2013 12:05203586
New York again [20 words]KAWABATAJul 10, 2012 03:37197111
Another Consequence [16 words]CliffordJul 6, 2012 14:47197039
2Israel's strike on Iran [183 words]Lujack SkylarkJul 1, 2012 17:12196869
Stuxnet and other viruses [71 words]stranchanJul 1, 2012 10:34196864
9Israel and Iran [1262 words]SarahSueJun 30, 2012 21:37196857
2Loved your post, SarahSue! [215 words]saraJul 1, 2012 17:06196857
absolutely correct [30 words]cmtljnpkisvji1683Jun 3, 2014 17:49196857
Israel's curious relationship with Iran [261 words]MozzaJun 28, 2012 06:07196781
Israel's Measured Response [665 words]M. ToveyJun 27, 2012 11:46196753
1So what's Israel waiting for? [70 words]BamagujeJun 30, 2012 16:57196753
1Good Question Now; But Timing Will Be Everything Later [630 words]M. ToveyJul 2, 2012 15:59196753
Iran's Nuclear Threat [142 words]Dan RusenJun 26, 2012 21:02196734
1After An Israeli Strike on Iran [164 words]JudithJun 26, 2012 19:51196732
too late by 5 years. [177 words]JOE revellJun 27, 2012 20:43196732
After an Israeli Strike on Iran [123 words]JudithJun 28, 2012 16:08196732
Israel has the right to self defense [85 words]StasJun 26, 2012 18:03196722
the Options of Iran [6 words]GiorgioJun 26, 2012 12:08196711
2Analysis misses likely escalation [133 words]MichaelJun 26, 2012 08:48196708
Iranian narrative [244 words]mythJun 26, 2012 07:32196704
2The Iranian leadership [82 words]Ken BesigJun 26, 2012 06:11196696
Iranian leadership and Hitler compared [123 words]mythJun 26, 2012 18:47196696
Can't take the chance anyway [76 words]saraJul 5, 2012 19:19196696
ony Iran [176 words]suzyApr 22, 2013 02:34196696
1After an Israeli Strike on Iran [42 words]George ArmstrongJun 26, 2012 04:55196694
3Great analysis but there are other players/scenarios to be considered [433 words]Yusuf in ObamastanJun 27, 2012 01:29196694
Iran is cooked [59 words]StasJun 21, 2012 02:28196482
Sanctions [110 words]sergeyJun 19, 2012 01:07196447

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