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The Problem with Peace Arrangements with Suspect Motives

Reader comment on item: Feeling Optimistic about Israel and the Emirates
in response to reader comment: Cold peace with Egypt and Jordan has served a useful purpose

Submitted by M Tovey (United States), Aug 16, 2020 at 00:11

Elsewhere, this observer has commented about the intrigues of the 'peace' agreement with the UAE, which is generally agreed to be a significant achievement in the Middle East. But not all actors in the Middle East are all that enthralled with what has happened. In certain respects, while it can be argued that Israel is content to postpone the annexation of the Judea-Samaria enclaves as efforts to obtain more secure arrangements in certain more difficult situations within the caustic COVID-19 environment.
Does the arrangement with the UAE provide a cushion?
To be sure, any help Israel can get is better than no help at all, which is certainly the norm in the region. The agreements, first with Egypt, then with Jordan, provides cushion since both of them were significant combatants during previous cross-border clashes and for the moment, they are not likely to start something, even if the ruffled feathers of Abdullah from Jordan had the appearance of a jaded acquaintance trying to maintain calm in the face of an inevitable storm; one by the way, not being over yet.
Again, elsewhere, this might be described as 'hudna,' where parties are biding their time, waiting for that 'special' moment of advantage that cannot be avoided any longer, such as the issues of fire balloons prompting retaliatory strikes, any one of which might be 'just the ticket' that gets it going. The PA leadership still does not have the necessary reserves for a full scale response, but then no one really thinks the PA is going to pull the real trigger, being crowded in their proxy corner by the larger background presence. This is where the wary eye of Israel is watching the background, on both borders. Syria would still love to get the Golan back also; but they too, do not have the wherewithal to get it done, their last attempt lacking in so many categories and finesse. Again, the proxy model is being groomed there too, right next door to the other tinderbox, Lebanon. The Hebrew Holy Writ will have the final say on all of these; and responses to tentative peace proposals are not the fulfillments to be expected.


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