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Donald Trump & the Forest and the Trees in the Middle East

Reader comment on item: Trump's Middle East Policy Revealed?

Submitted by Robert (United States), Dec 29, 2016 at 12:38

Dear Daniel Pipes,

I respectfully believe that as an Intellectual you are in a position to understand Barack Obama,
the brilliant Harvard Left ideologue, but not the Reality TV character of The Apprentice.

Here's one clue: he's very close to Henry Kissinger.
I just happened to receive and begin reading
the wonderful biography of your father ("Vixi," by Richard Pipes),
and that gives me more incite into the personality of Kissinger, as well as into the workings
of our State Department, and National Security Council.

In that context, here's what I see. The most severe conflict in the Middle East
is in Syria. As I write this Russia and Turkey have just announced a truce.
And of course, Iran and Hezbollah are also on the ground.
According to Kissinger, and Putin respects him very much,
the aim is a balance of power.
So we have Christian Russia, Sunni Muslim Turkey, and Shia Muslim Iran
in a balancing act to keep Syria at "Peace" and glue it back together again.
Syria's regime and State is under Assad, who is a kind of Shia.
In the background of course are other Sunni States, Saudi Arabia, GCC, Egypt, and Jordan.

By January 20, 2017, Donald Trump will move into the White House,
and shortly thereafter the American Embassy in Tel Aviv will move to West Jerusalem,
and Israel will declare more "Settlement" constructions
outside the pre-1967 Armistice Lines (not "Borders."

This will bring the United States into an alliance with Israel against "Islam" (not "Islamism");
It would seem to me, in that arisen, that Israel and the United States
would be in a strong position to forge a deal with Russia,
with Turkey reluctantly accepting but Iran vehemently opposing;
the aim would be to force Iran to retreat back to its boarders.
A war against Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas and the PLO (maybe)
by Israel and the United States, would not require a costly Regime change;
a military defeat I believe would not cause Iran to turn into a Failed State like Iraq or Afghanistan,
and if it does have a Civil War, there would be no one country
that would step in as in Syria.

Under President Donald Trump Israel will assert its interests, I hypothesis,
which means confronting Iran militarily and forcing it to withdraw
back closer to its borders (into mostly Shia Iraq).
The 100,000 Hezbollah missiles and rockets will be either withdrawn or destroyed by Israel
with the backing of President Donald Trump.
Similarly, there will be a destruction of Gaza's military capacity,
including rockets and tunnel building capacity;
Hamas will finally be defeated and the Palestinian Authority will perhaps take over.

In summary, the $38 billion which was granted by Obama to Israel for defense
will be used to do the "dirty work of war" on behalf of the United States.
Israel will finally emerge as an Ally of moderate Muslim regimes
and in opposition to radical Sunni Islamic insurgency and militancy;
whereas Shia insurgency is only significant as a non-state force: Hezbollah;
that means the possible destruction of Lebanon, the uncontrolled state base of this insurgency.

In summary, I think the best clue as to Trumps foreign policy activities,
is a close reading of former National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger;
bur before considering the World Order of Metternich,
I would recommend researching the creation of modern Germany
from the seed of little but powerful Prussia
in which subsequent Prince Bismark created the Kaiser of Germany in 1871 or so.
Israel should emerge as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world in Western Asia,
not because of love by the vast majority of Islam's people or populace,
but because of the more enlightened fears of its moderate and realistic leaders.
Sisi is a prime example - who fears ISIS most of all.
He dropped his UN Security Counsel resolution when pressured by Trump and Netanyahu,
and it was a "Gang of Four" (Senegal and New Zealand, etc.,
which conspired with the Obama administration
to pass the resolution against "Settlements"
and to preserve the "final solution" of a Two-State Solution.
The final solution I foresee is Victory against the Muslim and Islamic cause of the Palestinians.
Thereafter, there should be 500,000 "Settlements" in Lesser Syria
where at least some Palestinian "Refugees" will construct some Homes for themselves,
and maybe with a small cornerstone saying "Trump Tower."


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