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Prospects of a Putin-Trump Bromance

Reader comment on item: Two Bullies, Putin and Erdoğan, Try Friendship

Submitted by Robert (United States), Dec 23, 2016 at 19:54

A similar pairing dictatorial autocrats occurred during World War Two - called it the Mussolini-Hitler Bromance. In that scenario, Hitler rescued Mussolini from his incarceration by insurgents, and Mussolini effectively became Hitlers puppet.

Unlike the United States, the Turkish Republic and Russian Federation are relatively new states or republic and their governments depend much more on the personalities and characters of these leaders. One should expect a substantially unpredictable unfolding and political developments when their office occupancy expire naturally or otherwise.

In the case of Russia, we have an essentially Christian demography with vast natural resources, not merely energy, and 11 time zones. With Henry Kissinger still alive in his 90's perhaps he'll invoke Metternich and Bismark and wisp[er in Trump's ear that the United States should now develop Russia the way it did with China. I recall Kissinger discussing the Soviet bombing of the frontiers of Russia-China when Mao was still alive and Nixon listened to Kissinger's World Order proposals.

Erdoğan, on the other hand, is an Islamist in a country which is vastly Muslim demographically, with the elitist minority in the vicinities of Istanbul and Ankara. And it has a non-Turkish, but Muslim, Kurdish insurgency, on top of many other issues of instability, not least of which FETA (Gulen) real or perceived threats; and it has a history of secrecy and secret organizations, perhaps beginning with the Young Ottomans in the latter half of the 19th Century. Conspiracy theories flourish on the Anatolian heartland like labels of political incorrectness in multicultural east and west coasts on the United States.

I would therefore not be surprised that Turkey, with over 2 million Arab refugees turns into a failed state
not unlike its neighbor Syria.

With Brext the EU is facing the rise of Populism and a shift to the Right in its political demographics. It will not want to absorb Muslim Refugees or Turkish Visa because of a perceived threat to its Christian and European Culture.

It is in this context that I see a possible alliance between Putin and Trump with Netanyahu as best man. Putin has a strategic revolution against insurgencies, unless they benefit Russia directly. What he did in Chechnya, the Crimea, and Ukraine, should give us some hints as to what he might do in the Middle East.

As Trump aims to solves the Palestinian Problem, the focus naturally will be on Iran. Not only is Iran the country with warriors on the ground, but it is on principle against the existence of Israel within any boarders. And its ally is Hezbollah with over 100,000 rockets or missiles on the northern front of Israel.

I therefore foresee an alliance to force Iran out of Syria and its surroundings.

The Palestinian Refugee problem must be addresses with a realistic proposal. Since Greater Syria included Palestine during the Ottoman Empire period, and so Palestine is Southern Syria, I anticipate that Palestinians will Settle in Syria and help rebuild it from its current devastation.

Of the two bullies, I see Putin as doing the most good, even if it isn't recognized as such at the moment. Unlike his lesser opponent, who is mostly destroying resource-scarce Turkey, Putin is opening up Russia to the West, through Trump and subsequently Start-Up Nation Israel.

Preoccupied with his legacy President Obama I think is unaware of the good he had done by his in-actions on the international stages: he has forced the Muslim countries to confront one another in their struggles against the Modernism of the West, and not merely uniting around controlling the world's Oil and opposing Israel as an intruder upon Muslims and Islam by sprouting around Jerusalem from which, upon one version, the Prophet Mohammad ascended to Heaven on his Horse Burak.

Bullies in history are not always true to the scripts the pronounce. Other forces, often unseen at the time, are at work, and produce a different result.


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