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Ebola, anyone?

Reader comment on item: How Serious the Strain in U.S.-Israel Relations?
in response to reader comment: Your crystal ball

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Apr 6, 2015 at 15:58

Daniel Pipes replies:

Let me not reply to the worst case but the most likely case: That Israeli and commercial relations with Europe will undergo considerable strain, but limited by the fact that Europeans want the goods (especially high-tech and medical) that Israel supplies.

I think it likely that the Saudi authorities will "look the other way" should Israeli jets transverse their territory on the way to and on the way back from Iran.

Whether the Europeans want Israeli goods or no, they will not change their stripes and start supporting Israel in the UN -- either GA or SC. France helped Israel substantially in the 1950s (when the US opposed Israel), but I think those days are gone.

With former Yemeni President Saleh in Russia and current President Hadi in Saudi Arabia (?), it looks as though both sides of the Yemeni war are now completely manipulated from outside the country. Saudi Arabia cannot afford to have an Iranian proxy of the same nature as Hizbullah on its southern flank; so I doubt that she will throw in the towel. Likewise, I doubt that the Russians and Iranians will allow a Saudi victory in Yemen, any more than they have allowed one in Syria. The Arab-Iranian proxy war, therefore, is likely to continue and intesify. Meanwhile, Pakistan has proved to be something of a fair-weather friend of the Saudis, so if the kingdom finds itself in a bind, it will have to look elsewhere. This will most likely NOT be to Mr. Obama, who is the archetype of bruised reeds, so I don't see anyone they CAN lean on, other than Israel.

Israel, on its part, cannot afford to allow an archenemy with first-strike nuclear capability to grow in the region. At some point, it will have to attack Iran. I don't see why the Saudis should not tacitly cooperate in this strike. Will they try to attack the Israeli aircraft? That would probably be foolhardy. Will they warn the Iranians? No. Will they warn the Americans? Yes -- a day or so AFTER the strike. Then, perhaps, they will lodge a protest that will get nowhere. Iran, in the meantime, will be weakened and humiliated.

I doubt that Saudi interference will be a serious obstacle to an Israeli strike. The timing will be determined by Israel, and Israel alone.

Oh, Mr. Obama has assured Israel that he "has their back". If I had Obama watching my back, that simply means that I would have to be concerned about an enemy behind me as well as in front of me. When Israel preemptively (or reactively) strikes Iran, I expect Obama to be outraged and verbally attack the Jewish state -- along with the Europeans et al. That's preferable to being wiped out by one bomb from Iran.

I don't think it's wise, to imagine too many scenarios for the Middle East, beyond that which is laid out already in the Bible. Israel is under God's protection, so we can be certain of the following:

1. Israel will survive

2. Her enemies will be humiliated.

The details are up to God. Every country in the world is vulnerable today. China's President is engaged in a continual purge of officials, because he doesn't feel safe in the palace. The EU faces possible monetary collapse, and the loss of major members such as the UK -- as well as the potential for anarchy caused by Islamist outrages and reactions thereto. The US is divided, as at no time since the Civil War; and there is a war here beneath the surface. Putin could easily go the way of the Tsar: Nobody is really insulated: All the world's leaders live in glass houses. Israel, on the other hand, is secure.

Ebola, anyone?


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