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My Prediction

Reader comment on item: Eight Predictions about the Middle East

Submitted by Barry Black (United States), Sep 16, 2012 at 12:12

In the world of realpolitik, the USA does not want to attack Iran and Iran does not want to be attacked. Israel is backed in a corner with rhetoric as their only offensive weapon. My prediction is that Iran will advance their nuclear know-how to a point were they can assemble a weapon, but will not actually do so. The current and tenuous USA "red-line" is possession of an assembled weapon so in that regard we'll have a stand-off.

Iran will do it's best to hide their advancement. Things will cool off once Iran reaches that point and then sanctions will be eased. It is probably in Obama's and the USA's interest to have some sort of nuclear parity in the ME. The thinking is that a balance of power invites compromise with Israel doing the compromising.

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Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".

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