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Lineages--uncertainty and certainty

Reader comment on item: "Eventually, All Humans Will Be Palestine Refugees"

Submitted by Sigmund Derman (United States), Mar 4, 2012 at 10:24

Your title, "Eventually, All Humans Will Be Palestine Refugees", raises interesting and complex issues if one takes it seriously and literally. Lineages do tend to spread and become increasingly large and diffuse over time. But some lineages die out. When any one person looks backward, his ancestry seems to grow exponentially. But it generally is not quite exponential due to some overlaps. If, for example, you go back 750 years, each person has 1 billion ancestors assuming two parents (which is biologically correct) and 25 years per generation (which is approximate). The problem is there were only about 300 million people on earth at that time. So where did the rest of my ancestors (and everybody else's) go?

Leaving the above paradox for others to ponder, the near term practical effect of the UNRWA rules is to make the numbers grow close to exponentially as we go forward in time. In the same sense, it would be hard to find a Mexican citizen today who could not find an ancestor who owned land in Texas. Does that give him the "right of return"? Of course not (Some US citizens in the Mexican border states may say that some Mexicans are now imposing a de facto right of return, but that is a separate issue).

As an additional practical matter, a certain number of such "Palestinian refugees" wisely withdraw from this numbers game and get out. The numbers that really matter are those in close proximity to Israel. Those numbers will eventually show a slowed growth, one way or the other. The question is what will slow them. The two big possibilities are emigration and deaths due to war.

This is too complicated for me but here is one thing of which I am quite sure. If the Arabs do manage to destroy the current state of Israel,then the number of Palestinians will soon decline to zero and Palestine will cease to exist except perhaps as a geographical designation as it was to the Romans and their succesors. The Arabs will no longer care about this tiny bit of land. The Muslims in general will no longer care even though presently it is a painful thorn in the side of those Muslims dreaming of world domination. The Europeans, Asians, Australians, and (by and large) Americans will not care. Only one group on earth will care, the same group that has cared for the last 4000 years...the Jews. And the Jews will eventually re-establish it, even if it takes until 3048, by which time I expect all the Muslims will be gone, having killed each other.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (40) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Israel erased in (Palestinian) UN schools [28 words]PezDispenserJan 4, 2017 02:18235104
1Refugees in other Arab countries [45 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
AnnaMay 17, 2016 07:00229495
1Inaccuracy [37 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Jeff CrispMay 16, 2014 14:38214856
What do I do with this? [12 words]AlanaNov 18, 2012 23:52200776
Egyptians and Jordanians have to take care of their people [9 words]MarceloMar 26, 2012 00:21194772
The "Impossible" Dream of "Present Absentees." [182 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Isa AlmisryMar 11, 2012 01:18194249
5Lineages--uncertainty and certainty [434 words]Sigmund DermanMar 4, 2012 10:24193884
3What about the Jewish refugees? [42 words]FilledeMartelMar 2, 2012 20:20193821
2What about the Kurds and Armenians? [89 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
sargentFeb 26, 2012 06:23193667
2Another question [16 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Kepha HorFeb 25, 2012 19:28193646
1A Question? [5 words]Thomas SluchinskiMar 6, 2012 21:36193646
1Outcome of the discussions...... [248 words]RiTeshFeb 24, 2012 15:19193609
not everyone believes in religion [30 words]Peter, ScotlandFeb 29, 2012 14:26193609
1Atheists love to claim neutrality [64 words]AyishaMar 2, 2012 23:15193609
Another point [22 words]Yossi KhaiFeb 24, 2012 03:38193603
2Does UNRWA's definition even matter anymore? [36 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Pez DispenserFeb 23, 2012 04:27193580
12What is wrong with the civilized world? [226 words]SusanFeb 26, 2012 00:58193580
2Degradation of Civilizations When Almighty God is Asked to Butt Out in Futility [475 words]M. ToveyFeb 27, 2012 16:04193580
Paid Lobbists? [108 words]Larry BFeb 27, 2012 22:54193580
1When the Messiah comes ( if he ever does) [103 words]Seamus Dafydd Dives MacNemiFeb 29, 2012 14:34193580
1When HaMashiah Returns - Who Will Receive Him [517 words]M. ToveyMar 1, 2012 14:35193580
7Refugees in the world [170 words]pantheon singhMar 2, 2012 11:01193580
6Roots [105 words]Mark GFeb 22, 2012 13:16193563
Ditto! [26 words]Larry BFeb 27, 2012 22:59193563
9Irony [42 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
JonFeb 22, 2012 12:57193562
7a sharper point [60 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
mythFeb 22, 2012 11:47193561
41922-2012 90 Years to first Arab racist anti-Jewish boycott [295 words]PaulaFeb 22, 2012 06:16193557
21And, the polluted truths of history go on, and on, and on [81 words]kmanFeb 22, 2012 02:50193554
5An invented people [21 words]Yeshayahu GoldfeldFeb 21, 2012 23:18193547
5Perverted Words [238 words]Jay1Feb 21, 2012 21:57193545
12What other countries have had this situation? [133 words]stanley bFeb 21, 2012 18:22193542
10Islamic world does not want to resolve the Palestinian issue. [77 words]PrashantFeb 22, 2012 01:17193542
Islamic world does not want to resolve the Palestinian issue [31 words]ZeenaMar 6, 2012 04:11193542
Every race will claim too [60 words]AngelJun 4, 2012 18:24193542
9Unfathomable that this situation continues [116 words]saraFeb 21, 2012 18:16193539
2A newer lens [73 words]Michael Hanni MorcosFeb 22, 2012 01:08193539
9As Gingrich stated: a fabricated "people" [79 words]steven lFeb 21, 2012 16:01193537
8We live in an upside-down world. [72 words]NuritGFeb 21, 2012 13:53193534
3Why 'Palestine' Can Never Be Called Home by Israel [418 words]M. ToveyFeb 21, 2012 13:48193533
9Refugees and Sharia Law [79 words]DaveFeb 21, 2012 13:17193532

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