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Referendum is the perfect mechanism

Reader comment on item: Let Iraqis run Iraq

Submitted by John Hadjisky (United States), Oct 19, 2003 at 01:33

The trick will be to transfer control on a positive note, rather than under pressure. One model for this might be the unprompted withdrawal of virtually all US troops in Saudi Arabia not long after the fall of Baghdad. In the case of Iraq, if Saddam were captured or killed, and caches of WMD are discovered or documented to have been only recently destroyed, such an event might provide the context to transfer control and begin reducing troop levels on a positive note.

But we cannot count on these events. If the occupation comes to be defined as a contest between the US will to endure and the Iraqi will to see the end of the occupation, we have a formula that implicitly casts the US and Iraqi interests as fundamentally different, and a significant transfer of control would result in a loss of face for the US.

Happily, the data suggest our interests and the Iraqi people's are not necessarily at odds. One event that we can control is the timing and the content of a referendum. Why not take the initiative and propose a referendum now? Recent Gallup (Baghdad) and Zogby (nationwide) report frustration and only 4 out of 10 believe democracy can work for Iraq, but a majority are optimistic about the future and do not want an Islamist government; the largest plurality desired to imitate the US model of (Saudi Arabia came in second; the Baathist and Iranian models barely registered). In another poll (Gallup I think) something like 80% wanted the US to stay "for the time being" (I paraphrase). Perhaps most significantly, pollsters report that Iraqi enthusiasm for participating in the polls is quite high. While we hear repeated warnings that a premature election may favor Islamist parties that are presumed to be better organized and therefore more able to field candidates, a referendum speaks to issues rather than candidates and parties; general Iraqi enthusiasm reported by the pollsters, not to mention the novelty of a truly free election, should ensure enough participation to balance any advantage Islamist organizations might have in turning out the vote.

A referendum addressing questions such as the duration of the occupation or the amount of Iraqi control could prove a face saving and, if handled correctly, a face-enhancing measure. A referendum whose results favored anything other than immediate US withdrawal (a highly unlikely outcome if the polls are correct) would be (and would be seen to be) a positive outcome, enhancing US legitimacy AND Iraqi self-determination, while providing much needed milestones by which to judge the transition.

It is only a matter of time before domestic or international opponents to the Bush administration take up this cause. Bush should beat them to the punch.
Submitting....

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Reader comments (36) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!! [5 words]Logan BennettDec 10, 2003 07:1212585
true [16 words]slycooper542Jan 18, 2007 20:5412585
Not just the necessary thing but the right thing [126 words]David BarnsdaleNov 7, 2003 06:3312101
History provides a clue [105 words]Phil BramleyOct 29, 2003 18:2612015
Good, Fast, Cheap -- Pick any two [205 words]btk2Oct 26, 2003 22:2011953
hiding the truth, aren't you? [129 words]Yuval brandstetterOct 22, 2003 07:5811882
unclear [127 words]michael rosenbaumOct 20, 2003 20:4911858
But there ARE good reasons for being there [151 words]Dughall HallidayOct 20, 2003 05:0811851
Are Iraqis really capable of running Iraq right now? [212 words]David EOct 20, 2003 02:5711850
Please elaborate on your comments! [88 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
SteveOct 20, 2003 00:2811848
Let Iraqis run Iraq [26 words]Jim HerrinOct 20, 2003 00:0611847
answer to your suggestion, "Turm Iraq over to Iraqis" [199 words]AnnOct 19, 2003 23:1111845
Let Iraqis run part of Iraq [128 words]Boris GalinskyOct 19, 2003 17:0511844
Analysis cannot be universalised [83 words]Praveen BoseOct 19, 2003 12:1511841
Referendum is the perfect mechanism [453 words]John HadjiskyOct 19, 2003 01:3311837
Disappointed by this article [153 words]Boris FrenkelOct 19, 2003 00:4411836
Give the Iraqis room to run [143 words]GlennOct 19, 2003 00:3211835
No easy way out [286 words]Daniel TooOct 18, 2003 05:4811833
Double bind [55 words]john W. mcginleyOct 18, 2003 00:3711831
re pulling out of Iraq [103 words]phillip baramOct 17, 2003 20:4711829
The secondary reason is the primary reqson,"Sweet Crude" [166 words]Ken HarrisOct 17, 2003 15:2311827
US cannot afford to give up fixing Iraq! [207 words]Philip BaltzerOct 17, 2003 14:0711826
You said it ! [55 words]R.IngalsOct 17, 2003 01:3311819
Risk of Saddam and/or Loyalists Returning to Power [40 words]Dr. Louis KleinOct 17, 2003 01:2811818
You are probably right [280 words]Tom PensylOct 17, 2003 00:4411816
We need to take this a step further - location, location, location [256 words]LlamaOct 17, 2003 00:1811814
What Happened to You!?! [206 words]AvrahamOct 17, 2003 00:0011813
Additional points [234 words]Scott McCluskeyOct 16, 2003 23:5811812
No Democracy in Iraqi Self-Rule [207 words]Mike RamirezOct 16, 2003 23:5111811
Singing a different tune [71 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Steven SternOct 16, 2003 23:4611810
What about Saddam? [148 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Philip J. CherryOct 16, 2003 23:1811809
I wonder [37 words]ForrestOct 16, 2003 22:4911808
Can the Iraqis Govern and Protect Themselves in 6 Months? [145 words]James in BoiseOct 16, 2003 21:2411807
You missed a spot [19 words]John DaviesOct 16, 2003 21:1311806
Governing Iraq [15 words]JerryOct 16, 2003 20:5311805
Muslim Opposition to Infidels [327 words]Peter LubinOct 16, 2003 20:2511804

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