Sana Maqbool: To start off with our first segment on the Middle Eastern situation, we've been joined by Dr. Fadi Hilani who's senior fellow and director of the Middle East program at the National Council on US Arab Relations, and we've also been joined by Dr. Daniel Pipes, founder of the Middle East forum. Thank you very much, gentlemen, for joining us and being a part of the newsroom. ...
Dr. Daniel, I'd like your perspective too in terms of the strong rhetoric coming in from the US administration where Mr. Trump has said it's going to strike Iran very, very hard in exchange of Iranian attacks. There's of course a lot of economic sanctions that have also been taken place. But do you think that means that the US will consider moving forward militarily in the situation as well and to upscale the current situation with the kind of words that we've been hearing from the US administration? There is, of course, a lot of rhetoric that has not been followed through previously also by the US president. But do you think that the current situation can possibly move that way too?
Daniel Pipes: It could possibly but it would surprise me. Basically, the military conflict came to a draw. Nobody won and neither side really wants to re-engage militarily. So, it has evolved into an economic conflict with each side is hoping the other will give up first and each side is doing the best it can to put pressure on the other side economically.
And yes, there might be the occasional military flare up as we saw on yesterday, but it would surprise me greatly if that turned into all-out war again despite President Trump's rhetoric and repeated threats or for that matter repeated threats coming out of Tehran as well. So, it's about economics. Who is going to blink first? Who is going to give in first? Will it be the Iranians who are suffering in many ways in terms of food and power? Or will it be the outside world putting pressure on the United States, domestic pressure on the president to deal with inflation, deal with rising energy costs and the like?
It's been like this now for about four months with no clear indication which way it's going. Each side has held firm to its purpose and could go on for quite a long time to come. Though I must add that after the November elections in the United States, President Trump will feel freer to engage in military action than before those elections.
Maqbool: Right. Dr. Daniel, when we see though how Iran has responded historically to sanctions and economic pressures, it seems that it has acted in a way that it had doesn't have much to lose and that perhaps it can hold strong and firmer stance despite all of those sanctions. Is the current situation different from what we've seen Iran historically engage in?
Pipes: No, basically, the Iranians have developed what they call a resistance economy over the near-last half century and are fully prepared for this kind of situation. The United States has not prepared for it. So, it's a new problem for the United States and indeed for much of the world. But the Iranian regime has prepared for this and knows what it's doing. It is demanding a great deal of its subject population. It is depriving its population of normal economic necessities, but perhaps it can get away with it. We saw at the beginning of 2026 how it repressed the population with tens of thousands of murders. The population is cowed. Will it again rise up? None of this can any of us predict. ...
Maqbool: Dr. Daniel, the situation in terms of escalation previously also had a lot of the Middle Eastern countries be a target of the attacks coming in from Iran against US assets. How do you see that situation any different now than from what we've witnessed at the start of the conflict? Is there going to be a change in the way these countries are going to respond to any such attacks now, or do you see that the changing dynamics within the Middle East given other fronts opening given countries coming together will be different and is causing a lot of changes to the situation that Iran is currently acting in?
Pipes: Before answering your question, let me answer your previous question. Who's going to give up first? I'm inclined to say the US will give up first. The Iranians have been preparing as I said for this moment and are ready for it in the way the US government is not. So, I put my money, unhappily, but I put my money on the Iranians prevailing.
As for your immediate question, I think it was a profound mistake on the part of the Iranian regime to attack the Emiratis, the Saudis, the Bahrainis and so forth, the Jordanians most recently. A big mistake. They have alienated their neighbors, many of their neighbors in a way that's going to last for years and perhaps decades to come. Contrary to what the leaders in Tehran expected, the governments of these neighbors have not moved away from the United States or not moved away from Israel but have in fact become ever more inclined to look towards Washington. So, this was a mistake. The Iranians continue to engage in this mistake as recently as yesterday, attacking bases in Jordan. They have this in their head that this is a good idea. It's not a good idea but they keep doing it. ...
Maqbool: Dr. Daniel, is there any way in which you're looking at Iran having any kind of support in the Middle East by any entity or any country? Specifically, Oman as part of the Strait of Hormuz or any agreements that can be reached to help with the current economic pressures also or to leverage the strait even further and to move forward with a stronger stance? Is there any way in which you think any actor is currently supporting Iran?
Pipes: No, Iran is very isolated in the Middle East. You mentioned Oman that is the one country that's working with Tehran to a certain extent. But Iran has a significant supporter in China. China buys some 90% of its oil. China providing all sorts of dual use imports for Iran. China is the Islamic Republic's protector on the world scene. So, Iran is definitely isolated in the Middle East. It's less isolated on the world scene.
Maqbool: Right. Thank you very much Dr. Daniel for joining us and being a part of the newsroom.
