The Catastrophic U.S.-Iran Deal Weakens the West

How do you assess the current state of diplomacy between Iran and the United States?

Tehran is practically dictating terms to Washington, an extraordinary development given the U.S. domination of the shooting war. It confirms how, when it comes to enduring pain, a dictatorship can outlast a democracy.

How has the outcome of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran reshaped the balance of power in the region?

Should the U.S.-Iranian deal be implemented – and there are serious reasons to doubt that it will – it leaves the Islamic Republic of Iran poorer but much stronger and with greater sources of income than before the war started. Again, assuming the deal holds, U.S. influence will undergo a severe diminishment, due both to Iranian power and backlash by American allies. Donald Trump's legacy will be that of overseeing the worst military outcome in American history.

Trump signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles, recalling unfortunate associations of 1919.

How has the war affected the regional influence of the Turkey and China?

Turkey will do well thanks to its geography, its economic ties to Iran, and its membership in a newly legitimized Sunni bloc of states. China will also prosper, mainly due to Tehran's enhanced position and Washington's diminished one.

What future do you foresee for a possible U.S.-Iranian understanding?

Widespread opposition to the deal in both Iran and the United States suggests that relations between the two countries will remain toxic for a long time to come.

How much will the Strait of Hormuz issue weigh on the future regional order?

Talk about war's unintended consequences! The U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran turned the Straits of Hormuz from a non-issue into a central global concern. It will likely remain there for a long time to come.

In light of current tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border, how do you expect the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel to evolve?

The Iranian leadership expertly maneuvered the Trump administration to restrict Israel's responses when Hezbollah attacks it. This leaves the Israeli government in a dilemma: permit the north of its country to become uninhabitable or defy Trump's demands. I suspect it will fight Hezbollah, whatever the diplomatic cost.

How will the relationship between the United States and Israel change, given Israel's concerns or even its opposition to the Iran deal?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put his faith in Donald Trump and, like so many others before him, found himself used and discarded. This crisis will likely harm U.S.-Israeli relations for years to come.

Trump and Netanyahu in better times, December 2020.

How do you see the competition between Israel and Turkey developing, both in Syria and the broader region?

Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has become a major antagonist to Israel and has conflicts with Israel in many theaters, especially the Syrian one. With its powerful military and its NATO membership, Turkey presents Israel with a much greater threat than Iran ever has.

How do you judge President Trump's recent frontal attack on European allies such as Italy's Prime Minister Meloni and the United Kingdom's Starmer, as well as on NATO?

Trump's lies about Meloni having "begged" him for a picture together symbolizes his out-of-control ego and his growing disregard for U.S. national interests. This is a special tragedy, given the brilliant American creation of the post-World War II order that lasted eighty years, only now to be endangered by, of all people, an American president.