Beautiful Analysis

Submitted by Robert (United States), Dec 2, 2017 at 14:27

Dear Daniel Pipes,

I appreciate your caution as to the likelihood of success.
That said, my impression, after following the News,
with an eye for Spins, or "Fake News,"
it does look like the inertia of Saudi Arabia
is moving in the direction of Progressive and Liberal Reform.

This is incredibly surprising since it is Saudi Arabia
which arguably had the most repressive and anti-Modern form of Religious Islam,
Sexism, Tribalism, and Oil dependent one-commodity economy.

Part of the hope for the country appears, in my view,
to be due to the collapse of Pan-Arab solidarity and Pan-Islam solidarity
founded essentially on anti-Western Modernity
with Israel and the Palestinians viewed as the Front Line.

It looks like Israel has the opportunity to impose its own version of Peace
on the Palestinians from the Outside in alliance with Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Gulf States;
if that happens - a Big If of course - there is a possibility of Economic Cooperation
with the Start-Up Nation of Israel in a full Diplomatic Relationship
(Israel being Recognized as the Jewish State which it is De Facto).
Will the Saudi Desert Bloom as an extension of the Tip of the Negev
which appear like 2 triangles touching at 2 vertices?

Less connected to the issue of Saudi political and economic progress,
but nevertheless carrying relevance to it
is the possibility of Israel's First Northern War.
Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia
are further obstacles to Sunni Saudi interests
because these countries are united in a so-called Shia Crescent.
The weakness in this alliance is Russian Orthodoxy founded on one man Putin,
and the tangential outsider Sunni but Ottoman one-man Erdogan Turkey preoccupied
with the rising Kurdistan movement for a transnational new state
which has at its back only or mostly ISRAEL.

Arbitrarily concluding my Supplement at this point,
I observe that the situation around and within Saudi Arabia is Extremely Complex
and therefore Predicting is Very Difficult.
But as you observe, the Dynamics or Momentum is in the Progressive Direction.

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