Obama Makes Little Headway among Arabic-speaking Muslims

Barack Obama entered with high hopes of improving the U.S. image among Muslims worldwide, hauling out his middle name, giving his first interview as president to Al-Arabiya television, quoting hadith, giving major speeches in Istanbul and Cairo, and talking ceaselessly of "respect" for Muslims. Where has this got him?

The Gallup Poll conducted face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults aged 15 and older in each of Mauritania, Algeria, Egypt, the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, and Iraq (a curious collection of places). It asked the same question once in 2008, twice in 2009, and now for the first of two times in 2010: "Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the United States?" The margin of error ranges from ±3.1 percent to ±3.9 percent.

Gallup's results show something of a wash: Obama does distinctly better than George W. Bush in Mauritania (going from 44 to 69 percent) and Egypt (6 to 19 percent). He improves on Bush just over the margin of error in Algeria (going from 25 to 30 percent). He improves on Bush within the margin of error in the Palestinian Territories (from 13 to 16 percent). The two are tied in Lebanon (at 25 percent). And Obama does worse than Bush in Iraq (going from 35 to 30 percent).

Also noteworthy is that Obama's current standing has declined among all six of the populations from what it was in mid-2009. The smallest drop (3 percent) was in Iraq and the largest (18 percent) in Egypt.

Comments: (1) These polls register a highly unimpressive showing for someone who placed so much emphasis on improving U.S. standing among Muslims. (2) The graph of Arabic-speakers' attitudes toward Obama differs from that of Americans' views: the former went up and then down, while the latter went down and then flattened out. That said, both at present share a downward trend. (3) Fouad Ajami already anticipated this decline in November 2009, when he wrote:

'He talks too much," a Saudi academic in Jeddah, who had once been smitten with Barack Obama, recently observed to me of America's 44^th president. He has wearied of Mr. Obama and now does not bother with the Obama oratory.

He is hardly alone, this academic. In the endless chatter of this region, and in the commentaries offered by the press, the theme is one of disappointment. In the Arab-Islamic world, Barack Obama has come down to earth.

He has not made the world anew, history did not bend to his will, the Indians and Pakistanis have been told that the matter of Kashmir is theirs to resolve, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the same intractable clash of two irreconcilable nationalisms, and the theocrats in Iran have not "unclenched their fist," nor have they abandoned their nuclear quest.

There is little Mr. Obama can do about this disenchantment. He can't journey to Turkey to tell its Islamist leaders and political class that a decade of anti-American scapegoating is all forgiven and was the product of American policies—he has already done that. He can't journey to Cairo to tell the fabled "Arab street" that the Iraq war was a wasted war of choice, and that America earned the malice that came its way from Arab lands—he has already done that as well. He can't tell Muslims that America is not at war with Islam—he, like his predecessor, has said that time and again.

(May 28, 2010)

June 17, 2010 update: A A Pew Global Attitudes survey released today finds a similar downward trend when Muslims are asked about Obama:

Pew confirms that Obama's standing among Muslim is cascading.

June 24, 2010 update: Barry Rubin notes that the decline in popularity follows prodigious efforts:

The last pillar of President Barack Obama's Middle East policy, his alleged popularity in the region, has gone bye-bye. All the apologies, distancing from Israel, the Cairo speech, the Istanbul speech, the engagements with Syria and Iran, the ban on using the word "Islamism," and all the other apparatus of the new, non-strategic strategy have availed him—and U.S. interests—not.

Aug. 5, 2010 update: The Brookings Institution and Zogby International today issued a "2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll" covering Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. It goes further than prior surveys in documenting the collapse of Arab support for Obama.

• "How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United States?" In 2009, 45 percent answered positive, 28 percent neutral, and 23 percent negative. Those figures in 2010 are, respectively, 20, 16, and 62.

• "How would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama Administration policy in the Middle East?" In 2009, 51 percent answered hopeful, 28 percent neutral, and 15 percent discouraged. Those figures in 2010 are, respectively, 16, 20, and 63.

With dreary predictability and perfect-pitch obsession, the conductor of this poll, Shibley Telhami, commented that "the data leaves little doubt that the deciding factor in the shift of opinion toward the Obama administration is disappointment on the Israeli-Palestinian issue."

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