Question asked of Jerusalem Post columnists: "What will the future political landscape look like in Israel in the aftermath of the Winograd report?" For all replies, see "Burning Issues #31: Winograd fallout"
One week after Kadima came into existence in November 2005, I published an article, "Ariel Sharon, Escapist," in which I predicted that this new political party would "(1) fall about as abruptly as it has arisen and (2) leave behind a meager legacy."
Just over a month later, when Sharon was incapacitated by a massive brain hemorrhage, I opined in "Israeli Politics Will Revert to Its Past" that his political demise "signals a return to business as usual" in Israel, meaning that Kadima's career would soon be over. "Without Sharon, Kadima's constituent elements will drift back to their old homes in Labour, Likud, and elsewhere. With a thud, Israeli politics return to normal."
Well, it took longer than I expected. Ehud Olmert may have had no idea how to deal with Palestinians ("We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies") or Hizbullah (see the Winograd report), but he did excel at holding both the Kadima party and a ruling coalition together.
Again, I predict that Kadima will evaporate like all of Israel's other third-way, escapist parties, and that the Labor-Likud duo will re-emerge as dominant players. (May 2, 2007)